Cashew Kernels: India Establishes a Firm Price Floor Ahead of Festive Demand

Cashew kernel prices in India have carved out a solid floor, with Delhi wholesale levels viewed as stable to slightly firm in the short term. Limited raw nut arrivals from Africa, resilient domestic use and the approaching festive season are underpinning a sideways-to-upward bias rather than any meaningful downside. The global cashew trade continues to revolve around India’s large processing base, which transforms African raw cashew nuts into kernels for both export and a structurally strong home market. Demand from Indian sweets, bakery and snack manufacturers provides a year‑round consumption floor, while the 2026 festival calendar – from Raksha Bandhan on 28 August to Diwali on 8 November – will increasingly shape procurement decisions from late summer onwards. In this context, current kernel offers in India and Europe should be viewed as broadly stable for the next 2–3 weeks, with downside risk limited unless raw nut inflows surprise to the upside.

Prices

In Delhi’s wholesale market, cashew kernels are holding near a reported USD 412.84 per 40 kg, which translates to roughly EUR 9.6 per kg at prevailing exchange rates. Trade participants widely see this as a credible short‑term floor, with price action expected to be sideways to slightly firmer rather than lower.

Recent offer data confirm this stability: Indian W320 FCA New Delhi sits around EUR 6.85/kg, W240 about EUR 6.96/kg and W450 near EUR 5.99/kg, with little change over the past week. Vietnamese WW320 is quoted close to EUR 6.8–6.9/kg FOB Hanoi, while European warehouse stocks in the Netherlands (WW320 FCA Dordrecht roughly EUR 4.85/kg) continue to trade at a premium over bulk broken grades.

Supply & Demand

India remains a pivotal processor, importing raw cashew nuts primarily from Côte d'Ivoire, Tanzania, Mozambique and Benin. In the near term, no sharp increase in raw nut arrivals is expected, which constrains kernel output growth and helps keep prices supported. Steady processor buying in India further reinforces the emerging price floor.

On the demand side, Indian domestic consumption in sweets, bakery and snack applications runs throughout the year, cushioning any lull in export demand. Export flows to established destinations – notably the United States, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and Gulf markets – remain structurally important, but the immediate price support is increasingly coming from India’s own consumer base rather than a sudden external demand spike.

Fundamentals & Seasonal Factors

Fundamentally, the market is balanced: raw nut supply is adequate but not excessive, while kernel inventories in key origins are comfortable without being burdensome. This alignment explains why prices have stopped softening and are instead consolidating in a narrow range in late June.

Seasonality is now turning supportive. India’s main gift‑driven demand window begins to firm from August with Raksha Bandhan on 28 August 2026 and intensifies through September–October, peaking around Diwali on 8 November 2026. Processors and traders typically start restocking several weeks ahead of these dates, implying that forward buying interest for quality whole grades should gradually pick up from late July.

Weather & Origin Outlook

Key Indian processing states – Maharashtra, Goa and Kerala – are currently in the southwest monsoon season. For now, there are no widely reported weather disruptions significant enough to alter short‑term kernel supply flows, and most of the 2026 crop in major African origins has already been harvested and shipped into the pipeline.

Weather risks therefore remain more medium‑term, linked to the next flowering and nut‑setting cycle in West and East Africa rather than to the immediate pricing horizon. Any future monsoon irregularities or Atlantic rainfall anomalies will be relevant mostly for the 2027 supply picture, not for prices over the coming weeks.

Trading Outlook

• Short‑term buyers (up to 3 weeks): Treat current Indian kernel prices as broadly stable with limited downside. Stagger purchases but avoid aggressively waiting for cheaper levels that are unlikely to materialise without a surge in raw nut arrivals.
• Forward buyers for Aug–Nov: Begin layering in cover for festival‑related demand, especially for W320 and W240, before pre‑season restocking intensifies in late July and early August.
• European importers: With Indian kernel values stable and no near‑term supply shock in sight, use current FCA Netherlands levels to secure at least partial coverage into Q3 while retaining flexibility for opportunistic top‑ups.

3‑Day Price Indication (Directional)

• India (New Delhi, kernels FCA): Stable to mildly firm in the next 3 days, underpinned by steady processor demand.
• Vietnam (Hanoi, FOB kernels): Largely stable, following India’s lead and balanced raw nut supply.
• Europe (Netherlands, FCA kernels): Stable, with modest upward bias if replacement costs in origins tick higher.