Cashew Kernels Edge Higher as Monsoon Rains Hit India and Demand Holds

Mildly firmer cashew kernel prices in India and steady offers from Vietnam are keeping the market slightly bullish, while EU import values remain stable but elevated. Short-term, active monsoon rains in Indian cashew belts and solid snack demand in Europe support a gently upward bias rather than a sharp rally. Cashew markets across India (IN), Vietnam (VN) and the Netherlands (NL, as an EU hub) are trading in a narrow but firming range. Indian FCA/FOB quotes for key grades like W320 and W240 have ticked higher into late June, with processors able to pass on some cost pressure as domestic and export demand stay resilient. Vietnamese FOB levels are broadly stable, helping cap the upside, while European retail reference prices suggest buyers can still absorb slightly higher kernel costs without immediate demand destruction. Monsoon rains in Kerala and coastal Karnataka are active but not yet disruptive, although they warrant attention for logistics and drying conditions over the coming week.

Prices & Spreads (All values in EUR/kg)

Approximate spot and export-equivalent levels as of 20 June 2026, converted from offers in INR and USD where needed using prevailing FX for direction only.

Recent Indian mandi data show firm dry-fruit quotes, including cashew, consistent with the mild uptrend seen in export-quality kernels. In the EU, reference prices around 8.1 EUR/kg for cashews in the Netherlands indicate continued willingness to pay at current levels.

Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

India (IN)

• India remains heavily import-dependent for raw cashew nut (RCN), but the latest official dashboards (up to early 2026) already showed sizeable RCN inflows and structurally high domestic consumption, leaving only a small share (≈5–6%) for exports.
• Fresh anecdotal indicators from wholesale and retail channels suggest robust snack demand and no visible pressure to discount kernel prices, even as monsoon sets in.
• Combined, this supports today’s modest price increases in W320, W240 and broken grades rather than any softening.

Vietnam (VN)

• Vietnam’s agri export complex has posted a trade surplus above USD 7 billion over the first five months of 2026, with high-value crops such as nuts contributing.
• Cashew kernel offers for WW320 and WW240 from Vietnam are stable week-on-week, indicating balanced kernel supply and orderly RCN arrivals.
• Stable VN FOB values help anchor global trade, limiting the upside for Indian offers despite India’s stronger domestic pull.

Netherlands / EU (NL)

• The Netherlands acts as a key distribution hub for EU cashew imports. Current wholesale FCA offers in Dordrecht for WW320 are well below EU retail references, leaving comfortable margins for roasters and packers.
• There is no evidence of demand shock in the last few days; retail price levels across Europe, including the Netherlands, remain firm but stable, supporting ongoing kernel procurement at current replacement costs.

Weather Watch – IN & VN Cashew Belts

India (Kerala & Karnataka)

• The southwest monsoon has reached Kerala and coastal Karnataka, with weather services warning of moderate to heavy rainfall in Kerala between 18–21 June 2026 and residual showers into next week.
• Short-range forecasts for cashew areas such as Munnar in Kerala show wet and rainy conditions with temperatures around 20–24°C over the next three days, favouring tree moisture but challenging post-harvest drying and local logistics.
• Interior Karnataka locations show intermittent showers and warm conditions, but not at levels that significantly disrupt processing or transport at this stage.

Vietnam (VN)

• No major, time-stamped weather disruptions in Vietnam’s cashew-growing regions have been reported in the last three days; conditions appear seasonally normal, with no immediate threat to output or port operations found in recent updates.

Market Fundamentals & Risks

• Short-term firmness: Indian kernel prices have edged higher over the last two weeks across main grades, in line with strong domestic consumption and the limited share of production allocated to exports.
• Vietnam as price cap: Stable Vietnamese FOB offers for WW320/WW240 are acting as a soft ceiling on global prices. Buyers with flexible origins can arbitrage between India and Vietnam if Indian premiums widen too much.
• Weather/logistics risk (IN): Active monsoon rains in Kerala raise near-term risks for drying and inland movement of kernels from coastal belts. Prolonged heavy rainfall or localised flooding could briefly tighten near-origin spot supply and support prices.
• Demand-side resilience: EU and Indian retail indicators show consumers have so far accepted current cashew price levels, implying that moderate kernel increases can still be passed through without a sharp hit to volumes.

3‑Day Price Outlook (IN, VN, NL)

• India (IN, New Delhi): With monsoon-related logistical risk and firm domestic demand, W320/W240 and broken grades are likely to remain slightly firmer over the next three days. Bias: mildly bullish, especially for premium whole kernels.
• Vietnam (VN, Hanoi): Stable supply and export programmes point to unchanged WW320/WW240 FOB indications in the very short term. Bias: sideways.
• Netherlands (NL, Dordrecht): EU import and inventory positions appear comfortable; FCA kernel values should track origin offers with a short lag, staying broadly steady. Bias: sideways to marginally firmer if Indian and Vietnamese replacement costs continue to edge up.

Trading & Procurement Recommendations

• Indian buyers/exporters: Consider covering near-term W320/W240 needs promptly before further monsoon-related tightening, especially if you rely on Kerala/Karnataka origins for processing.
• International buyers (EU, Middle East): Use the current stable VN FOB levels as a benchmark; maintain diversified origin coverage (India + Vietnam) to cap procurement risk if Indian premiums widen.
• EU wholesalers (NL hub): With retail prices stable and origin costs only slightly higher, passing on a modest increase in contract prices over the next week looks feasible without major demand pushback.