Cashew prices stay firm as raw nut costs, tight African supplies squeeze processors

Global cashew prices remain firm as elevated raw cashew nut costs and tightening West African supplies support kernel values, while rising freight and weaker currencies squeeze processor margins. Demand is strongest for broken and scorched grades, leaving premium whole kernels relatively softer but still underpinned by high raw nut replacement costs. The market is transitioning into the late West African marketing phase with residual stocks in Côte d’Ivoire, Burkina Faso and Togo commanding higher farmgate prices. Vietnam’s June export performance improved and kernel prices edged higher, but raw nut imports dropped sharply month on month. In India, kernel demand is led by pieces and scorched grades ahead of the festive season, while Europe shows particular interest in cashew pieces. Surging container rates out of Asia and a firm raw nut complex point to continued cost pressure through July.

Prices

Raw cashew nut (RCN) prices across key West African origins stayed elevated in late June and early July, with CNF Vietnam offers for Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire and Nigeria typically between USD 1,410 and 1,530 per metric tonne, and premium Guinea-Bissau material around USD 1,730 per tonne. These levels remain difficult to justify for many processors given current kernel returns, but tight nearby availability keeps sellers resistant to lower bids.

Vietnamese FOB kernel offers strengthened alongside better demand from the United States and Asia. W320 traded around USD 3.10–3.35/lb, W240 at USD 3.45–3.60/lb and top grades W180–W210 at USD 4.00–4.60/lb. Broken and split grades ranged roughly from USD 1.40–2.80/lb depending on quality. Indicative African FOB prices for W320 clustered in the USD 3.35–3.50/lb range, broadly in line with Vietnam, while Indian W320 remained the costliest origin at approximately USD 3.75/lb.

Converting current spot offers and reference prices to EUR at an indicative 1.08 USD/EUR gives approximate levels of EUR 6.80–7.40/kg for mainstream W320 kernels FOB Vietnam and India, consistent with recent offers around EUR 6.9–7.0/kg FCA/FOB for Indian W320 and W240 grades. European warehouse prices for W320 ex Netherlands are lower, near EUR 4.9–6.1/kg depending on organic status and specification, reflecting earlier, lower-priced coverage and local competition. Rising freight surcharges on Asia–Europe lanes – with 40-foot container rates now widely above last year’s peak – are likely to push landed kernel prices higher in the coming weeks.

Supply & Demand

Global supply is tight on a spot basis despite an overall sufficient 2026 crop. Low carry-over stocks from previous seasons, high RCN procurement costs and concerns about late-season African quality have led many processors to scale back throughput. This reduction in kernel output, combined with rising by-product values such as cashew nut shell liquid, underscores the need for higher kernel prices to maintain processing margins.

Vietnam imported 228,285 tonnes of raw cashew nuts in June 2026, down 18.6% year on year, yet January–June imports were still 4.8% higher than last year at 1.676 million tonnes as processors front-loaded purchases earlier in the season. Cambodia and Tanzania were key suppliers, together accounting for more than 1.1 million tonnes in the first five months. Kernel exports in June reached 73,019 tonnes, 7.5% higher than a year ago, while first-half shipments were marginally lower in volume but higher in value, signalling a firmer international price structure.

In West Africa, the marketing season is in its final phase. Côte d’Ivoire, Burkina Faso and Togo are mostly trading residual stocks, with farmgate prices generally between 200 and 580 CFA/kg depending on country, region and quality. Tight local availability, particularly in Togo and parts of Burkina Faso, is supporting farmgate and wholesale levels despite seasonally reduced trading activity. Currency strength of the CFA franc against the US dollar – up around 0.9% week on week – has slightly tempered exporter competitiveness but has not yet softened local raw nut prices meaningfully.

On the demand side, India’s domestic market is driven by strong buying of broken kernels, scorched wholes and splits ahead of the festive season, while demand for high-priced whole grades such as W240 and above is more cautious. Europe’s demand is described as healthy, especially for cashew pieces used in snacks, confectionery and bakery applications. Improved processing efficiencies are generating fewer natural breakages, reducing the supply of pieces and keeping their prices relatively firm compared with whole kernels.

Fundamentals & Freight

Processor margins remain under pressure because kernel prices have not fully caught up with elevated RCN costs and rising logistics expenses. Many processors, particularly in Vietnam and India, report that current returns on mainstream grades such as W320–W240 barely cover raw material, labour, energy and financing costs. As a result, they are cautious sellers and prefer to limit forward sales until replacement costs become clearer.

Freight is a major additional driver of firmness. Ocean freight rates from Asia to Europe and North America have surged since late May, reflecting a combination of war-related diversions, fuel surcharges and an early peak season. Recent market updates show Asia–Europe spot rates now significantly above 2025 peak levels, with some lanes over USD 5,000–6,000 per 40-foot container. Cashew shipments from Vietnam face higher base rates, peak-season surcharges and heavy-load surcharges, pushing buyers to reconsider shipment timing and, in some cases, to explore origin diversification.

Weather risks are moderate but worth monitoring. Seasonal outlooks for July–September 2026 indicate below-normal rainfall for parts of southern Mainland Southeast Asia during the Southwest Monsoon, while northern and central Vietnam are expected to see frequent hot days in July. For mature cashew orchards this is not an immediate shock, but prolonged heat or moisture stress could affect flowering and nut set later in the cycle, especially for orchards entering critical phenological stages. For now, fundamentals are dominated far more by low carry-over, expensive RCN and freight than by weather.

Currency movements are mixed. The Indian rupee weakened by around 0.9% against the US dollar over the week, increasing the local cost of imported raw nuts and freight but marginally improving export competitiveness in dollar terms. The Ghanaian cedi and Indonesian rupiah also softened, while the West African CFA franc and Nigerian naira appreciated slightly. Vietnamese dong stability means that Vietnam’s offer levels are driven mainly by physical costs and freight rather than FX volatility.

Short-Term Forecast & Trading Outlook

Near-term sentiment for July is cautiously firm. The global crop appears sufficient to cover demand, but high RCN prices, low carry-over and constrained processing capacity suggest that significant downside in kernel prices is limited in the short run. Any notable relief on freight could moderate landed prices, but carriers’ current surcharges and early-peak-season dynamics imply that such relief is unlikely before late Q3.

Demand is expected to remain strongest for broken kernels, scorched grades and splits, especially in India and Europe. As processing efficiencies continue to reduce natural breakage, these grades should retain a premium over historical relationships to wholes. Premium whole kernels, particularly W240 and top grades W180/W210, may see more selective buying, but limited offer volumes – especially for top-quality lots – will likely keep these segments firm as well.

Strategic Pointers for Market Participants

• Kernel buyers (EU/US): Consider covering a portion of Q3–Q4 needs now, especially for pieces and scorched grades, to hedge against further freight-driven cost increases. Maintain flexibility on shipment windows to optimise container rates.
• Retailers and food manufacturers: Review product mix to leverage relatively more attractive pricing for mid-range whole grades and adjust promotions on premium W180/W210 where consumer price resistance is strongest.
• Processors (Vietnam/India/Africa): Avoid overcommitting forward at thin margins; focus on selective sales where by-product credits and favourable freight contracts can support profitability. Monitor late-season African RCN quality closely before locking in additional volumes.
• Traders: Watch currency moves in India and West Africa alongside container rate developments. Short-term volatility could open arbitrage opportunities between African and Asian kernel offers, particularly for W320 and pieces.

3-Day Directional Price Outlook (EUR-based)

• Vietnam FOB kernels (W240/W320): Stable to slightly firmer in EUR terms as freight surcharges and firm RCN costs offset any minor FX or demand shifts.
• India FOB kernels (W240/W320): Firm bias, supported by robust domestic demand for pieces and splits and a weaker rupee increasing local cost bases.
• Europe ex-warehouse (Netherlands W320, pieces): Mostly stable but with upward risk if new shipments priced on higher freight and RCN costs start to dominate available stocks.