Cashew Market Steady but Tight as Iraq’s Nut Imports Surge

Iraqi demand for fruits and nuts is accelerating in 2025, while global cashew supply remains tighter after weaker African crops, keeping kernel prices broadly firm and range‑bound in early July 2026. Stable to slightly higher kernel indications from India, Vietnam and Europe suggest buyers face limited downside in the near term, especially for premium whole grades. Iraq’s imports of fruits and nuts jumped 23.3% year on year in 2025 to around USD 1.54 billion, placing the country among the larger global buyers in this segment and underpinning regional demand for nuts, including cashews, alongside citrus and bananas. Nuts already account for about USD 199 million of Iraqi imports, pointing to a solid structural pull from the Middle East. At the same time, global trade data show fruits and nuts imports nearing USD 193 billion, led by large consumer markets such as the US, China and Western Europe, which helps anchor cashew demand even as some destinations temporarily slow restocking.

Prices

Indicative export prices for cashew kernels remain broadly stable to slightly firmer into early July. Indian W240 kernels around New Delhi are currently offered near EUR 7.0–7.5/kg FCA/FOB equivalent, while W320 trades just under that level, roughly EUR 6.9–7.1/kg. Vietnam’s FOB benchmarks from Hanoi for WW240 and WW320 cluster in a similar band around EUR 7.0–7.9/kg and EUR 6.9–7.1/kg respectively, confirming a relatively tight and aligned global price structure for whole kernels. In Europe, spot WW320 in the Netherlands is notably cheaper, around EUR 5.0–6.1/kg FCA Dordrecht depending on origin and organic status, reflecting strong competition among importers and some inventory overhang.

Recent daily and weekly indications from India confirm that kernel prices for key grades (W240, W320, W450 and pieces) have edged up only marginally since mid‑June, suggesting a balanced physical market rather than a sharp rally. A fresh July report points to Indian cashew kernel prices as broadly stable to slightly firmer, with premium grades holding gains amid cautious export demand and resilient domestic consumption. At the same time, Vietnamese offers for roasted WW320 in late June to early July remain in a comparable range to Indian kernels, underlining that processors in both origins are defending margins after elevated raw cashew nut costs earlier in the season.

Supply & Demand

The broader fruit and nut import data for Iraq underline a robust demand backdrop for nuts in the wider Middle East. With Iraq’s overall fruits and nuts imports up by more than USD 290 million in 2025 and nuts alone near USD 200 million, regional buyers are likely to remain active in securing cashew kernels, even if short‑term buying is occasionally delayed by currency or logistics issues. Globally, fruits and nuts imports approaching USD 193 billion signal enduring consumer appetite for high‑value tree nuts, supporting baseline cashew demand across snack, confectionery and ingredient channels.

On the supply side, the 2026 raw cashew nut balance is tighter than the previous year, particularly in West Africa where production is estimated to be up to 250,000 tonnes below last year’s record harvest, keeping raw nut availability constrained despite softer demand in some destination markets. This has helped maintain a firm price floor for kernels. In contrast, India’s domestic raw cashew arrivals have been described as adequate, reducing the risk of near‑term supply spikes for kernels but not fully offsetting the African shortfall. Meanwhile, Vietnam continues to import large volumes of raw nuts for processing, targeting ambitious export goals for 2026 despite some recent recalibration of shipment targets amid geopolitical and freight‑related uncertainties.

Demand signals are mixed but broadly constructive. In India, strong domestic snacking and ingredient use means only a small share of total cashew supply is currently exported, limiting the impact of any slowdown in Western or Middle Eastern purchases on local prices. In Vietnam, export data from the first part of the year show strong month‑on‑month gains as shipments to the US and China rebounded sharply, though exporters are now more cautious as they monitor global retail demand and potential disruptions in Middle Eastern trade lanes. For importing markets in Europe and the Middle East, including Iraq, this combination of firm but not runaway demand and tighter raw nut supply supports a moderately bullish medium‑term tone.

Fundamentals & Weather

Kernel pricing fundamentals currently reflect two opposing forces: elevated raw cashew nut costs stemming from the weaker African crop and earlier export restrictions, and relatively mild growth in end‑market consumption. Industry commentary highlights that while prices have not surged in recent weeks, underlying imbalances in the supply chain—particularly concentrated RCN sourcing from West Africa and heavy processing capacity in India and Vietnam—are creating a floor under kernel values. Margins for processors remain under pressure, which limits their willingness to discount premium whole grades such as W240 and W320.

Weather risk is increasingly important for the outlook into late 2026. Seasonal forecasts suggest that Vietnam will see above‑average temperatures and more erratic rainfall during the second half of 2026, consistent with ongoing El Niño‑like conditions. Such patterns could affect flowering and nut set for the next crop cycle in Southeast Asia if heat and dryness extend into key phenological stages. In India, the 2026 monsoon has started somewhat erratically, but July rainfall is so far considered adequate for near‑term cashew tree needs, leaving current crop prospects broadly stable though still exposed to any prolonged dry spells later in the season. For now, these weather factors add a modest risk premium rather than an immediate shock.

Outlook & Trading Ideas

With Iraq’s nut imports rising strongly and global cashew fundamentals supported by tighter raw nut supply, the market is likely to remain firm through the coming weeks. Price action in late June and early July points to a sideways to slightly upward bias for premium whole kernels from India and Vietnam. Barring a sudden collapse in consumer spending or a sharp improvement in African crop estimates, downside in benchmark W240/W320 values appears limited. Weather‑related risks in Southeast Asia and West Africa could tilt the balance more bullish later in the year if higher temperatures and erratic rainfall curb 2027 crop potential.

• Importers / Roasters: Use current stability in Indian and Vietnamese W320 offers to secure at least 2–3 months of coverage, especially into key consumption seasons, while avoiding over‑commitment at the very top of the recent range.
• Retailers / Brand owners: Consider locking in a share of volumes via European hub stocks (e.g. Netherlands FCA) where prices are still relatively competitive versus origin, but factor in the risk of firmer replacement costs later in 2026 if the African crop shortfall deepens.
• Producers / Processors: Maintain disciplined selling for premium whole grades, spacing offers rather than aggressively discounting; for lower‑value pieces and splits, be prepared to offer modest concessions to stimulate demand where inventories are heavier.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication

• India (New Delhi, FOB/FCA W320): Expected to trade broadly steady around EUR 6.9–7.1/kg over the next three days, with a slight upside bias if domestic demand stays firm.
• Vietnam (Hanoi, FOB WW320): Likely to remain in a narrow range near EUR 6.9–7.1/kg, as exporters reassess shipment targets but face no immediate pressure to discount.
• Europe (Netherlands, FCA WW320): Spot offers around EUR 5.0–5.2/kg are expected to hold, with limited room for further downside given firmer replacement costs at origin.