Indian Cashew Kernels Hold Steady as Export Headwinds Grow

Indian cashew kernel prices are broadly stable to slightly firmer, with top grades holding recent gains despite softer raw nut sentiment and export uncertainties. Tight availability of premium W240 and steady domestic snack demand are offsetting weaker buying interest from some overseas markets. The market is entering July with a cautious but balanced tone. Domestic raw cashew nut arrivals in southern India remain adequate, while processors face only modest cost pressure from logistics and financing. However, Vietnam’s decision to trim export targets amid geopolitical risks in the Middle East underlines fragility in kernel demand, especially for lower grades. At the same time, India’s monsoon has started erratically and July rainfall is forecast to be patchy, keeping an underlying weather risk premium in place for medium‑term supply. For now, prices in India are expected to remain range‑bound, with limited downside unless export demand deteriorates further.

Prices

All prices below are indicative market levels converted to EUR (approx. 1 EUR = 1.10 USD) and rounded.

Indian kernel offers for W320 FOB New Delhi sit around EUR 6.36/kg, a touch above Vietnamese benchmarks but still within the established spread. APEDA’s recent dashboards describe export prices from India as broadly sideways into Q2, a picture consistent with today’s levels. Spot mandis for raw nuts in Kerala are quoting around INR 132/kg (≈ EUR 1.45/kg in raw equivalent), signalling adequate but not oversupplied farm‑gate conditions.

Supply & Demand

On the supply side, global raw cashew nut output remains comfortable. INC’s latest crop update projects another year of higher RCN availability led by West Africa, with India’s own crop near 725,000 tonnes and Côte d’Ivoire expected around 1.5 million tonnes in 2025/26. This ample raw material base is one factor preventing any sharp spike in kernel prices despite resilient demand.

However, Vietnam – the leading kernel exporter and key benchmark origin – has just revised down its 2026 export target after logistics disruptions and payment risks in the Middle East, a region that accounted for roughly 12% of its cashew export turnover in 2025. Vietnamese shipments in the first four months of 2026 were about 3.8% lower year‑on‑year, and processors are reportedly more cautious in forward sales. This softens global kernel buying interest and limits upside for Indian prices in the near term.

For India, official market intelligence highlights that exports now represent only about 5–6% of total domestic supply, with strong internal consumption of cashew as a snack and ingredient absorbing most production. As a result, the Indian price structure is increasingly driven by domestic demand, festival and wedding‑season buying and competition from other dry fruits, rather than pure export arbitrage.

Fundamentals & Weather

Weather conditions in key processing and trading hubs such as New Delhi are currently hot, humid and seasonally wet. The latest 3‑day outlook points to maximum temperatures around 36–37°C with high humidity and intermittent light rain – typical monsoon conditions that support post‑harvest drying and transport but can occasionally slow logistics.

Nationally, meteorological and commodity‑market commentary suggests that July rainfall is likely to be somewhat below normal due to lingering El Niño effects, raising concerns for several kharif crops. For cashew, which has already completed its main flowering and nut‑setting in many belt regions, near‑term price risk from this pattern is modest; the larger impact would be on next season’s flowering if moisture deficits persist into late 2026.

On the macro side, Indian financial markets remain liquid and borrowing costs broadly stable, with government bond yields supported by expectations of index inclusion. This helps larger processors roll over working capital at manageable rates, preventing forced selling of kernels even when export demand is patchy. Combined with relatively cheap RCN from West Africa, as reflected in APEDA’s sideways to mildly bearish outlook for some African origins, this underpins a stable cost base for Indian shellers.

Short‑Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

Over the next week, the cashew market is expected to remain range‑bound, with a slight firm bias in premium whole grades and flat to mildly soft sentiment in broken grades. Buyers are still digesting earlier coverage and watching how Vietnamese exporters adjust offers after the Middle East disruptions.

• Indian buyers (roasters, packers): Consider covering short‑term needs in W240/W320 at current levels; the combination of strong domestic demand and only modest raw‑nut softness makes a deep correction unlikely in July.
• International importers (EU, Middle East): Use current stability to diversify origins. Vietnam offers competitive WW320 prices, while India provides a premium grade mix; stagger purchases rather than committing heavily while geopolitical risks around key sea lanes persist.
• Processors in India: Maintain disciplined procurement of RCN, taking advantage of any temporary dips in West African offer prices, but avoid over‑expansion of kernel stocks until clearer signals emerge from US and Chinese demand in Q3.

3‑Day Price Direction – Key Hubs (All in EUR)

• New Delhi (India, kernels FCA): W240 and W320 expected to trade broadly steady around EUR 6.25–6.45/kg; W450 and LWP likely flat within EUR 5.35–5.50/kg and EUR 4.30–4.45/kg respectively. Bias: sideways with a slight upward tilt for W240.
• Hanoi (Vietnam, FOB benchmarks): WW320 likely to remain near EUR 6.10–6.30/kg with limited volatility as exporters reassess targets; broken grades stay under mild pressure as demand concentrates on whole kernels.
• Dordrecht (Netherlands, FCA re‑exports): WW320 warehouse prices expected stable around EUR 4.40–4.60/kg, reflecting comfortable European inventories and cautious retail promotions ahead of the autumn demand window.