Cashew Kernels Edge Higher as Vietnam Supply Stays Tight and EU Demand Holds

Cashew kernel prices in India, Vietnam and the Netherlands are drifting higher, supported by firm export demand and tightening Vietnamese supply, while weather is broadly neutral for the coming days. The market remains moderately bullish for premium grades (W240/W320), with buyers gradually lifting coverage into Q3. Across key hubs, recent quotes show small but consistent week‑on‑week gains for most grades, confirming a steady uptrend rather than a spike. India’s domestic cashew segment has seen roughly double‑digit year‑on‑year increases so far in 2026, largely on the back of higher Vietnamese kernel values and resilient retail consumption. Vietnam continues to dominate global processing and exports, and recent trade data underline strong shipments in Q1 2026 despite cost pressures. In Europe, including the Netherlands, demand for kernels in snack and ingredient channels is stable, keeping import prices firm but not overheated.

Prices

The following table converts latest key quotations to EUR using an indicative rate of 1 USD = 0.93 EUR. All changes refer to movements over the past week based on current offers.

Indian retail and wholesale markets report W320 cashew prices around ₹1,000–1,600/kg in June 2026, roughly 12% higher year‑on‑year, confirming broader firmness in the value chain. Vietnam’s Q1 2026 export statistics show average kernel export prices near USD 6,800 per tonne, supporting global reference levels.

Supply & Demand

Vietnam remains the dominant global processor, accounting for about 80% of world cashew kernel exports, with Q1 2026 shipments up nearly 12% year‑on‑year and export earnings up around 11%. Strong demand from China and other Asian buyers has kept factories running at high utilisation, even as logistics and labour costs rise.

In India, official and trade sources highlight Vietnam as the key competitor in global kernel markets, while India increasingly focuses on value‑added and branded segments. Domestic demand is supported by stable consumption of dry‑fruit mixes, with cashew prices outperforming other nuts in 2026. Europe, including the Netherlands, continues to source sizeable volumes of edible nuts; EU demand is relatively price‑inelastic in snack applications, helping keep import prices firm despite broader economic headwinds.

Weather & Crop Outlook (IN, VN)

Vietnam’s key cashew province of Binh Phuoc is currently experiencing 27–34°C temperatures with scattered showers and thunderstorms over the next three days, typical of the early wet season. This pattern should aid soil moisture and tree recovery post‑harvest without posing acute short‑term risks to the 2027 crop.

In India, cashew belts in Konkan–Goa and coastal Karnataka are in the southwest monsoon phase. Recent updates indicate intermittent rain with some breaks in Goa, a normal pattern after the main flowering and nut‑setting period. As the 2026 harvest is largely complete, near‑term weather is not expected to materially affect current supply, though prolonged heavy rains later could impact drying and local quality in remaining late‑harvest pockets.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Firm export pipeline from Vietnam: Q1 2026 volume and value gains confirm robust global offtake despite higher costs, keeping benchmark Vietnamese FOB prices stable to slightly higher.
• India’s domestic strength: Retail cashew prices have risen around 12% year‑on‑year, signalling healthy consumption and limited availability of discounted kernels.
• Stable EU demand: European buyers, including the Netherlands, show steady interest in both conventional and organic kernels, with Europe described as less price‑sensitive and key for premium grades.
• Weather-neutral near term: Monsoon and rainy‑season conditions in India and Vietnam are broadly normal; no fresh weather shocks are visible for the next several days.

3-Day Trading & Price Outlook (IN, VN, NL)

• India (FOB New Delhi): With domestic and export demand solid and no new supply relief, W320 and W240 are likely to trade in a narrow but upward‑biased band over the next three days, with potential gains of up to ~0.02–0.04 EUR/kg.
• Vietnam (FOB Hanoi): Exporters are expected to defend current WW320/WW240 offers given strong Q1 performance and steady buyer interest; near‑term risk is skewed to small price increases or roll‑over rather than discounts.
• Netherlands (FCA Dordrecht): Stocks are adequate but replacement costs from origins are firm. Expect sideways‑to‑slightly‑firmer indications, especially for organic WW320, as European buyers maintain coverage into summer.

Trading Recommendations

• Buyers in EU/India: Consider covering at least 1–2 months of W320/W240 needs now; near‑term downside looks limited while Vietnamese supply remains tight and domestic Indian prices are elevated.
• Importers/Packers in NL: Use current levels to secure forward organic WW320 volumes before further origin‑driven increases filter through.
• Origin processors (IN, VN): Maintain offer discipline on premium grades; focus discounts, if any, on brokens and lower grades where demand is more elastic.

3‑Day Directional View (EUR terms): India FOB kernels: +0.5% to +1%; Vietnam FOB kernels: flat to +1%; Netherlands FCA kernels: flat to +0.5%, assuming stable FX and freight.