Cashew Kernels Edge Higher as India, Vietnam and EU Buyers Stay Active

Indian, Vietnamese and European cashew kernel prices are edging higher in late June, supported by firm export demand and only gradual improvement in raw nut availability. The uptrend is still moderate but broad-based across whole and broken grades, with Vietnam maintaining its role as price-setter for global kernels and India facing cost pressure from delayed monsoon and tight imported raw cashew nut (RCN) supplies. Near term, prices look biased upward rather than downward as buyers in Europe and Asia rebuild inventory into Q3. Across the value chain, wholesale and foodservice quotations in India, Vietnam and the EU confirm that Q2 cashew prices are above 2025 levels and holding firm, helped by recovering snack and confectionery demand. Recent Vietnamese export data show strong kernel shipments into the US, China and the EU, while European wholesale offers for roasted cashews remain elevated versus historic norms. Weather is a watchpoint rather than an immediate threat: India’s monsoon is delayed over parts of the main growing belt, whereas Vietnam’s cashew regions are in their typical hot, showery pattern. For now, fundamentals favour steady‑to‑firm prices rather than any near‑term correction.

Prices

All prices below are indicative and converted to EUR for comparability (1 USD ≈ 0.93 EUR; 1 INR ≈ 0.011 EUR). They reflect late‑June 2026 offers or wholesale quotations.

Retail and B2B lists in India point to W320 cashews typically retailing around INR 1,000–1,600/kg (≈ 11–18 EUR/kg) in June, confirming that spot kernels are about 10–15% more expensive than a year ago.

Supply & Demand

Vietnam remains the dominant global processor, accounting for roughly 80% of world cashew kernel exports and benefitting from strong purchasing from China and Western markets in early 2026. March 2026 customs data showed Vietnamese cashew export values more than doubling month‑on‑month as US and Chinese buyers rebuilt stocks, a trend that keeps FOB prices underpinned into Q3.

India’s position is more constrained. Official dashboards highlight reduced export competitiveness versus Vietnam because of higher raw nut and processing costs, even as domestic demand continues to grow in confectionery, snacking and gifting segments. Recent investment in value‑added segments like cashew nut shell liquid (CNSL) extraction underscores an industry pivot towards margin‑rich by‑products to offset kernel cost inflation.

In Europe, demand is recovering from last year’s slowdown as inflation eases and foodservice volumes improve. Vietnam takes advantage of EU trade preferences, especially under its bilateral free‑trade framework, to consolidate share in Germany, France and other core markets. Wholesale offers for roasted and seasoned cashews in France and neighbouring countries remain elevated, indicating that importers are passing on higher origin prices to downstream buyers.

Weather & Crop Conditions

India (IN) – The 2026 southwest monsoon has progressed but remains delayed over parts of east, central and north India, with private and social‑media weather trackers highlighting below‑normal early‑June rainfall in several interior regions. Along the Konkan–Goa–coastal Karnataka belt, showers have increased recently and the monsoon is now established, though interruptions of several dry days in Goa have been reported. Cashew harvesting there is largely finished; current rainfall mainly affects drying and short‑term quality, not yields.

Vietnam (VN) – Northern Vietnam, including Hanoi, is seeing a heatwave easing into a hot, showery pattern, while the Central Highlands and southern regions experience regular afternoon and evening thunderstorms. This is broadly seasonal for late June and supports post‑harvest processing and transport with only localised logistical disruptions from heavy showers.

Netherlands (NL) – Cashew activity is limited to storage, processing and distribution. No weather‑related constraints are currently reported for Dutch ports or inland logistics, and there are no fresh disruptions in recent EU business news that would directly affect cashew flows.

Fundamentals & Drivers

• Firm export flows from Vietnam: Strong shipments in Q1–Q2 2026 to the US, China and the EU have reduced carry‑in stocks and keep Vietnamese FOB offers for WW240/WW320 in the mid‑single‑digit USD/kg range, supporting global benchmarks.
• India’s cost squeeze: Rising raw nut and processing costs, together with delayed monsoon in some producing areas, are eroding India’s export competitiveness, nudging many processors to prioritise the domestic premium segment and by‑products like CNSL.
• Demand recovery in Europe: EU snack and confectionery demand is slowly improving on the back of lower inflation and steady tourism flows, with Vietnam leveraging its trade agreement to expand share in Germany and France.
• Retail inflation in India: Updated dry‑fruit guides show cashew retail prices up around low‑double‑digits year‑on‑year, in line with broader reports of cashew price inflation of about 12% versus 2025.

3–Day Outlook & Trading View

Regional 3‑day directional price bias (in EUR terms)

• India (IN, New Delhi origin): Steady to slightly firmer for W320/W450 and main broken grades over the next 3 days, with buyers likely to accept small premiums given monsoon uncertainty and robust domestic demand.
• Vietnam (VN, FOB Ho Chi Minh/Hanoi): Mild upward bias as exporters test slightly higher offers on WW240/WW320 amid tight nearby availability and still‑active interest from China and EU snack manufacturers.
• Netherlands (NL, FCA Dordrecht): Steady‑to‑firm; European importers are facing higher replacement costs from both India and Vietnam, but strong competition in retail may cap further short‑term increases.

Trading recommendations (short term, 1–4 weeks)

• Roasters and packers in EU: Consider covering a portion of Q3 needs now, especially for premium WW240/WW320, as Vietnam’s FOB offers look more likely to move slightly higher than lower if demand from China and the US stays firm.
• Indian buyers: With domestic prices already 10–15% above last year, stagger purchases rather than front‑loading, but avoid going short on inventory until monsoon progression and raw nut supply in key belts normalise.
• Importers in NL: Use current EU‑Vietnam trade advantages to diversify sourcing towards Vietnamese kernels where quality and price are competitive, while monitoring freight rates and FX for additional cost risk.

Overall, the cashew kernel market across India, Vietnam and Europe looks set to trade in a steady‑to‑firm band in the coming days, with weather developments in India’s monsoon belt and continued export strength from Vietnam as the key variables for any stronger price move.