Cashew market caught between firm RCN costs and hesitant kernel demand

Global cashew prices are being held up by firm raw cashew nut (RCN) costs and tight availability in larger kernel grades, while kernel demand—especially for smaller and broken grades—remains hesitant. The next meaningful move in prices will hinge on festival demand in India, buying from the Middle East, logistics and freight developments, and remaining West African supply. The market is currently balanced on a knife-edge. Origin costs for RCN in West Africa and Asia are rising or holding firm, yet kernel buyers have not followed with higher bids as retail demand and supermarket pricing remain unclear. Larger grades (W180, W240, W320) are better supported, helped by tight supply from origins such as Cambodia and steady interest from China, the Middle East and selected European buyers. In contrast, demand for broken grades remains weak. Strong US kernel imports signal solid underlying consumption, but geopolitical uncertainty and logistics delays are still delaying new forward coverage.

Prices & Spreads

RCN prices remain firm across origins. Limited business was reported for Côte d’Ivoire 45/200 around USD 1,530/t and Ghana 44/200 around USD 1,370/t, with current offers including Senegal 52/220 at USD 1,630/t (July), Ogbomosho 49/185 at USD 1,580/t (June), Ghana 44/200 at USD 1,400/t (June–July) and Côte d’Ivoire in a band of USD 1,432–1,570/t depending on quality and nut count.

On the kernel side, the market remains broadly weak but increasingly two-tiered. FOB Vietnam W320 trades around USD 3.15/lb (≈EUR 6.40/kg), with offers in a range of USD 3.10–3.25/lb. W240 has edged up to about USD 3.40/lb (≈EUR 6.90/kg), while W180 has firmed more strongly to around USD 4.15/lb (≈EUR 8.40/kg) on tight supply and steady demand from China, the Middle East and parts of Europe.

Domestic and European indications confirm a modest firming bias in kernels. Indicative cashew kernels in Northwest Europe (FCA Netherlands) show WW320 around EUR 4.85/kg, LWP about EUR 3.40/kg and SWP about EUR 2.90/kg, all slightly higher than earlier in June. Indian FOB New Delhi prices for conventional W320 hover near EUR 6.40–6.50/kg equivalent, with W240 around EUR 7.00–7.20/kg, broadly in line with the current firmness in higher grades.

Supply & Demand Dynamics

West African supply is transitioning into the late-season phase. Ghana reports lower transaction volumes and falling stock availability, with buyers increasingly selective. Nigeria’s market remains active, but supply is tightening and farm-gate prices are steady due to robust competition between exporters and local processors. In Côte d’Ivoire, activity is muted as producers hold unsold stock amid limited buying interest; persistent rainfall is hampering drying and quality, though farm-gate prices are stable and premiums are paid for top lots.

Benin’s arrivals and transactions are slowing as the season winds down. Local processors are estimated to have purchased roughly half of total arrivals, while more than 90,000 tonnes have reportedly crossed into Togo and Nigeria. Burkina Faso is also seeing reduced activity as harvests conclude, with government support measures encouraging stock retention for local processors and curbing exports. Collectively, these trends point to tightening spot availability of quality RCN in West Africa as the season nears completion.

On the demand side, the picture is mixed. In India, kernel demand has been slower than expected, with W320 and pieces moving but broken grades still lagging. Buying interest is expected to improve from late June or early July as trade prepares for the festival season beginning in the third week of August. In contrast, demand from the Middle East is relatively better, especially for larger whole grades, while China and selected European buyers are supporting W180 and W240.

Fundamentals & Trade Flows

The kernel market remains structurally supported by stronger fundamentals in the larger grades. Reduced kernel sizes from origins including Cambodia, together with limited stock levels, are tightening supply of W180 and W240 relative to smaller grades. FOB Vietnam offers reflect this, with W180 at about USD 4.20–4.60/lb (≈EUR 8.50–9.30/kg), W210 at USD 3.90–4.10/lb (≈EUR 7.90–8.30/kg), W240 at USD 3.40–3.55/lb (≈EUR 6.90–7.20/kg) and W320 at USD 3.05–3.25/lb (≈EUR 6.20–6.60/kg).

Import demand in the US—the world’s largest kernel market—remains a bright spot. In April 2026, US cashew kernel imports rose to 10,408 tonnes from 8,042 tonnes a year earlier, a 29.4% increase in volume, while average import prices stayed nearly unchanged around USD 6,770/t (≈EUR 6,300/t). For January–April 2026, cumulative imports reached 41,989 tonnes, up 10.5% year-on-year, with Vietnam supplying nearly 89% of volumes. This suggests robust underlying consumption despite the current hesitation in forward contracting.

Geopolitics and currencies remain important secondary drivers. Easing tensions in the Middle East and potential declines in freight rates could improve buying sentiment and support kernel demand in coming months. In India, expectations of a near-term rebound in the rupee could partially offset import costs, but high RCN offers from West Africa (e.g., Burkina Faso around USD 1,410/t and Togo around USD 1,530/t on a 46-lb basis) mean landed costs are unlikely to fall significantly in the short term.

Weather & Regional Outlook

Weather is playing a localized but meaningful role, especially in West Africa. In Côte d’Ivoire, persistent rainfall is lowering drying quality and slowing movement of RCN. This is encouraging producers to hold onto higher-quality nuts in anticipation of better prices and is contributing to the overall firmness in origin costs.

Elsewhere in the region, the seasonal transition towards the end of harvest is more influential than short-term weather, with supply naturally tapering. In Asia, weather has not been highlighted as a major immediate constraint; instead, trade flows, currency moves and demand from key destinations (India, Middle East, US, China) are dominating sentiment.

Market & Trading Outlook

Overall, the cashew market is cautiously supported. Firm RCN prices, tightening availability in larger kernel grades and robust US import demand underpin the complex, while kernels—especially smaller and broken grades—still face resistance from buyers. The next key catalysts will be the pace of demand recovery for India’s festival season, sustained Middle Eastern buying, and any improvement in logistics and freight.

• For roasters and industrial buyers: Consider covering a larger share of W180/W240/W320 needs through Q4 2026 while differentials to broken grades are justified by supply tightness. Focus on origin and processor reliability given ongoing logistical delays.
• For traders and processors: Maintain measured exposure in RCN as West African supplies tighten and quality risks persist due to rainfall. Premiums for top-quality Côte d’Ivoire and Benin nuts are likely to remain justified if kernel demand improves into the festival period.
• For retailers and brand owners: Use current relative weakness in pieces and broken grades to secure competitive pricing for value and ingredient segments, while expecting firmer shelf prices for larger whole grades if downstream demand accelerates.

Short-Term Price Indication (3-Day View)

• Europe (FCA NL, kernels): Prices for WW320, LWP and SWP are expected to remain stable to slightly firmer in the next 3 days, supported by higher origin costs and limited spot pressure.
• FOB Vietnam (whole kernels): W320 likely to trade sideways around current EUR-equivalent levels, with W240/W180 retaining a mild firm bias due to tight availability.
• West African RCN (farm-gate/export): Prices are expected to stay firm given seasonally slowing arrivals, quality concerns from rainfall and ongoing competition between exporters and local processors.