Indian Chickpea Prices Edge Higher As Weak Monsoon Keeps Supply Tight

Indian chickpea prices in New Delhi are edging higher in mid-July, supported by tight domestic pulse supplies and a still-fragile monsoon outlook. FCA and FOB quotes for Kabuli chickpeas have firmed by around 1–2% since early July, with larger calibres showing the strongest gains. Near-term price risk remains skewed to the upside if rainfall stays patchy and kharif sowing continues to lag last year. India’s chickpea market is trading in a generally firm band, with wholesale Kabuli chana prices across key mandis averaging roughly EUR 0.74–0.78/kg equivalent in early July, and Delhi export offers at a noticeable discount to Mexican origin. Domestic fundamentals are underpinned by below-normal monsoon rains so far this season, which have held back overall kharif acreage and reinforced concerns about pulse availability later in the year. Over the next few days, subdued rain forecasts for Delhi-NCR and parts of north India point to no immediate relief on the supply side, keeping buyers cautious and sellers moderately confident on prices.

Prices

New Delhi FCA Kabuli chickpea prices on 12 July 2026 stood around EUR 0.93/kg for 42–44 count, EUR 0.99/kg for 44–46 count and EUR 0.88/kg for 46–48 count, each about EUR 0.01/kg higher than early July levels. Smaller calibres (58–60 and 60–62 count) are trading near EUR 0.80/kg and EUR 0.72/kg FCA, also up roughly 2–3% from 3 July.

FOB New Delhi offers for Indian origin Kabuli are quoted around EUR 0.95/kg for 42–44 count and EUR 0.92–0.89/kg for 44–48 count, implying a narrow but steady export margin over FCA values. Mexican-origin Kabuli remains significantly higher, near EUR 1.22/kg FOB for 42–44 count, maintaining India’s competitiveness in export markets despite local firmness. Retail and mandi data point to an all-India average Kabuli chana price equivalent to roughly EUR 0.75–0.80/kg, broadly consistent with Delhi wholesale indications.

Supply & Demand

India remains the world’s dominant chickpea supplier and a net exporter, accounting for around three-quarters of global output. Recent mandi data show Kabuli chana prices holding firm across northern states, reflecting limited farmer selling at current levels and cautious stocking by trade following last season’s volatility.

On the supply side, the broader kharif season is under pressure: official trackers indicate total kharif sowing in early July is roughly 6% below the long-period average and about 21% lower than last year, as a weak start to the southwest monsoon curtailed planting of several crops, including pulses. While chickpea is mainly a rabi crop, tight conditions in other pulses are supporting cross-commodity substitution, lending additional support to Kabuli prices.

Weather & Crop Conditions (India)

Nationally, the 2026 southwest monsoon began with a sizable rainfall deficit (around 38% below average between 1 June and 1 July), but above-normal rains in early July have since narrowed the shortfall to near the low-20s in percentage terms. However, spatial distribution remains uneven, with parts of north and central India still seeing irregular showers and soil moisture stress in rainfed areas.

For Delhi and surrounding NCR, IMD forecasts and local observations point to a pause in heavy rainfall after the recent deluge, with largely dry, hot and humid conditions expected for the next 3–4 days and only isolated light showers thereafter. This temporary lull in monsoon activity is unlikely to directly affect the standing rabi chickpea crop (already harvested), but it does constrain short-term logistics recovery after flooding and keeps overall pulse availability tight in northern consumption centres.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Monsoon-linked risk premium: With kharif sowing lagging last year and rainfall still below normal on a cumulative basis, markets are embedding a weather risk premium across pulses. This supports Kabuli chickpea values despite normal post-harvest availability of the rabi crop.
• Export competitiveness: India’s FOB offers for Kabuli remain well below Mexican origin, keeping Indian exporters competitive into West Asia and South Asia even as domestic prices firm.
• Retail demand resilience: Retail datasets show continued firm Kabuli chana prices across India, suggesting demand is absorbing higher wholesale levels without major resistance so far.
• Speculative and stocking behaviour: Anecdotal trade commentary indicates traders are reluctant to offload large volumes ahead of clearer monsoon signals, preferring staggered selling, which tightens spot availability in key hubs like Delhi.

3–7 Day Outlook & Trading View

Weather models and regional reports indicate below-normal rainfall and hot, humid conditions over Delhi-NCR until around 16 July, with better rain chances only after 17 July. This implies no immediate easing in logistics or inflows that could pressure chickpea prices in the very short term.

Trading recommendations (short term)

• Buyers (millers, packers): Consider covering near-term Kabuli chickpea needs on price dips, especially for larger calibres (42–46 count), as monsoon and kharif uncertainty keep the floor elevated.
• Exporters: Indian origin remains competitive versus Mexico; locking in FOB sales at current EUR-denominated levels appears attractive, particularly if freight remains stable.
• Producers and stockists: Maintain a moderately bullish stance but avoid excessive holding; a sustained improvement in monsoon rains in late July could cap further upside.

3-day indicative price direction (EUR)

• New Delhi FCA Kabuli, 42–44 & 44–46 count: Bias: mildly higher to steady over the next 3 days, with moves of roughly +1–2% possible on continued firm demand.
• New Delhi FCA Kabuli, smaller calibres (46–48, 58–62 count): Bias: broadly steady, with limited upside as buyers show preference for larger sizes.
• New Delhi FOB export offers (all sizes): Bias: steady to slightly higher, tracking FCA strength and supported by competitive gap to Mexican origin.