Indian Peanut Prices Hold Firm as Monsoon Nears and Exports Stay Competitive

Indian peanut prices are broadly steady, with bold and java grades in Gujarat and New Delhi showing only marginal moves week on week. Tight but not critical old-crop supplies, firm domestic oilseed sentiment and still‑competitive export offers versus Brazil are keeping the market supported rather than bullish. In Gondal (Gujarat), mandi groundnut bold averages around ₹7,205/quintal as of 21 May 2026, indicating a stable physical tone in the key growing and trading hub.  With the India Meteorological Department (IMD) confirming a normal southwest monsoon forecast and onset over Kerala expected around 26 May, planting conditions for kharif groundnut are set to improve, but any acreage response will appear only later in the season.  For now, traders focus on nearby coverage as buyers weigh Indian offers against Brazilian competition and a broadly well‑supplied global protein complex, underpinned by strong South American soymeal exports. 

Prices & Spreads

All prices below are approximate and expressed in EUR/kg, converted from recent INR mandi and offer indications and current FX levels.

Recent Indian FOB indications confirm India’s continued discount to Brazil in food‑grade kernels, with bold 40–50 Gondal around EUR 1.05/kg and java 50–60 New Delhi near EUR 1.27/kg in early May, slightly below levels seen at the start of the month.  That differential underpins steady export demand into the EU and other markets, especially as India strengthens testing infrastructure for peanut shipments. 

Supply, Demand & Weather

Wholesale groundnut prices in Gondal, Rajkot district, average about ₹7,205/quintal (≈EUR 0.79/kg) as of 21 May, with a range between ₹5,880 and ₹8,655, highlighting balanced local supply with some quality‑driven premiums.  Stockists are not under pressure to liquidate, but aggressive hoarding is also absent, keeping spot markets orderly.

On the demand side, global vegetable‑protein markets are well supplied, reinforced by robust Brazilian soymeal exports in May, which cap upside for competing protein crops like peanuts.  Nonetheless, India’s peanut complex benefits from food‑grade and confectionery demand that is less directly exposed to soymeal price swings, especially into Europe, which remains the largest importer of edible kernels. 

Weather is turning into a key forward driver. IMD’s latest outlook confirms the southwest monsoon is on track, with onset over Kerala expected around 26 May 2026 and cumulative seasonal rainfall forecast near normal.  For Gujarat and other western oilseed belts, a timely and normal monsoon would support 2026/27 kharif groundnut acreage, but this impact will materialise later; near‑term price direction remains driven by old‑crop flows and export demand.

Market Drivers & Risks

• Export competitiveness: Indian bold grades remain discounted to Brazilian raw peanuts on a FOB basis, preserving India’s edge in price‑sensitive destinations while still meeting stricter EU quality protocols. 
• Oilseed complex backdrop: Record or near‑record South American soybean and soymeal shipments keep global protein markets comfortable, tempering any sharp peanut rally absent weather shocks. 
• Monsoon uncertainty band: While IMD projects a broadly normal monsoon, distribution within Gujarat’s traditionally erratic Saurashtra region remains a key watchpoint for groundnut; any early‑season deficit could quickly tighten forward supply expectations. 

Short-Term Outlook (3 Days, India Focus)

Over the next three days (23–25 May 2026), pricing in India is expected to remain broadly stable with a mild firm bias in higher‑quality lots as monsoon newsflow encourages some pre‑planting stocking. No major weather disruptions are forecast for key peanut hubs before the monsoon’s expected arrival over Kerala around 26 May. 

• Gondal (Gujarat, bold 40–50 FCA): Sideways to +0.5% in EUR terms, tracking steady mandi bids and limited farmer selling pressure.
• New Delhi (bold 50–60, 60–70 FCA): Largely flat; narrow spreads between sizes should persist as traders balance domestic crushers and kernel exporters.
• New Delhi (java grades FCA): Stable with a slight upside tilt; quality‑conscious export inquiries support existing premiums over bold.

Trading Recommendations

• Importers (EU, Middle East): Use current stability to extend coverage into Q3 2026 on Indian bold and java, prioritising suppliers with proven compliance to tightening EU residue and aflatoxin standards.
• Indian exporters: Maintain offer discipline; with Brazil at a visible premium and global protein well supplied, focus on quality differentiation rather than price cuts to secure long‑term contracts.
• Domestic crushers and stockists: Avoid heavy forward short positions until monsoon distribution over Gujarat becomes clearer; a delayed or patchy onset could quickly shift sentiment in favour of higher kernel prices.