Indian Raisin Prices Ease Slightly as Supply Stays Comfortable

Indian raisin prices are edging slightly lower in mid‑August, with small week‑on‑week declines for food‑grade brown, black and golden grades, while bird‑feed Malayar remains flat. Global supply is ample and current monsoon weather in Maharashtra is not yet a major threat, keeping the near‑term price outlook mildly soft to sideways. Indian raisin trade is in a mid‑season consolidation phase. Reservoir levels and monsoon showers in Maharashtra’s key grape belts (Nashik, Sangli) are sufficient to support the next grape crop, while not extreme enough to trigger immediate quality concerns for drying grapes. At the same time, international production has normalised after previous weather disruptions, with world dried grape output above 1.1–1.2 million tonnes and India’s 2025/26 raisin production estimated sharply lower than the previous season but still adequate for domestic and regional demand. Export competition from Turkey, China and Iran remains strong, capping upside for Indian FOB offers even as logistics and financing costs stay elevated.

Prices

All prices converted to approximate EUR using 1 EUR = 1.10 USD (rounded).

Indian FOB food‑grade raisins thus show mild softening, whereas FCA domestic/near‑port values are slightly firmer, reflecting local handling and inland demand. European FCA prices for imported Turkish, Chinese and Chilean raisins generally trade in a €2.0–2.6/kg range, providing a competitive ceiling for Indian export quotes.

Supply & Demand

India is among the top raisin producers globally, alongside Türkiye, China, Iran, the United States and South Africa. Recent international estimates suggest world raisin/sultana/currant production above 1.15–1.2 million tonnes in 2025/26, a recovery from earlier weather‑affected seasons. For India specifically, 2025/26 raisin production is projected significantly below the prior year (around 160,000 tonnes versus 245,000 tonnes in 2024/25), with much lower ending stocks.

Even with this year‑on‑year decline, domestic availability is currently comfortable because carry‑in stocks and stable internal demand offset the lower new‑crop volume. The absence of fresh policy shocks—such as export restrictions or sudden changes in import duties on competing origins—keeps trade flows relatively smooth. Recent Indian policy analysis notes that zero duty on raisin imports and comparable FOB levels for Indian and key competing origins reduce India’s price advantage, especially into premium markets.

Weather & Crop Conditions (India, Region: IN)

Key Indian raisin grapes are grown in Maharashtra, particularly Nashik and Sangli districts, which dominate India’s table grape exports and raisin production. For 18–20 August 2026, forecasts show mostly cloudy, breezy conditions with intermittent light rain in Nashik, with highs around 27–28°C and lows near 23–24°C. Sangli shows a similar pattern: mainly cloudy, increasingly windy, with passing showers and highs of 27–29°C.

These conditions are typical for the monsoon period and currently supportive for soil moisture and vine health, without indications of severe flooding or prolonged heavy rainfall that would threaten berry quality or drying operations. With harvest for raisin‑bound grapes still some distance away, current weather is neutral to slightly positive for the next crop, limiting any immediate weather‑driven bullish impulse in prices.

Fundamentals & Trade Flows

• Global balance: International dried grape production has rebounded from earlier lows, and aggregate world consumption is tracking slightly below supply, implying modest stock rebuilding and a broadly balanced to slightly oversupplied market.
• India’s role: India accounts for roughly 10% of global table grape production, with expansion driven by improved farm management and export‑oriented vineyards in Maharashtra. A portion of this crop is channelled into raisins, especially in Sangli, which alone contributes around 70% of India’s raisin output.
• Export competition: Türkiye, China, Iran and Chile continue to offer large volumes of sultanas and other raisin types into Europe and Asia, with competitive FCA prices in major hubs like Hamburg and Rotterdam. This competition limits the ability of Indian exporters to raise USD‑denominated offers, even when domestic costs rise.
• Infrastructure & logistics: Ongoing development of dry‑port infrastructure around Nashik and Sangli is aimed at improving export efficiency for grapes and raisins, but current studies highlight that similar FOB levels across origins and zero import duty on raisins into India compress margins and constrain upside.

3–5 Day Price & Trading Outlook (Region: India)

• Price bias (EUR, India FOB/FCA): With monsoon weather benign and global supply ample, Indian raisin prices are likely to trade sideways to slightly softer over the next 3–5 days. Minor adjustments of ±€0.02–0.03/kg may occur as exporters fine‑tune offers against Turkish and Chinese quotations.
• Short‑term drivers: Stable local demand, ongoing export enquiries ahead of festival season stocking, and currency moves will be more important than weather in the immediate horizon. No major supply shock is visible in the next week.

Trading Recommendations (near term)

• Importers in EU / Middle East: Use current slight dip in Indian FOB prices on brown and black AA raisins to secure partial coverage for Q4, while benchmarking offers strictly against Turkish sultanas and Chinese sultanas/green raisins to avoid overpaying.
• Indian packers/exporters: Consider modestly discounting FOB offers on standard grades to stay within the lower half of the European FCA price band (roughly €2.0–2.3/kg for mainstream sultanas), while defending premiums on high‑quality golden and speciality lots.
• Domestic buyers in India: With FCA prices slightly firmer than FOB but still historically moderate, near‑term purchasing can remain hand‑to‑mouth; larger forward bookings may be deferred until clearer signals emerge from early indications on the next grape crop.

3‑Day Directional Outlook – Key Hubs (all in EUR)

• New Delhi (India, FOB/FCA, food‑grade raisins): Sideways to mildly softer; expected move within −1% to 0% over the next three days, absent FX shocks.
• EU hubs (Rotterdam/Hamburg, FCA, imported raisins): Stable; comfortable stocks and steady arrivals should cap short‑term gains, with spreads versus Indian origin largely unchanged.