Indian Sesame Prices Edge Higher as Monsoon Recovers but Sowing Lags

Indian sesame prices are grinding higher in EUR terms, supported by steady export demand and a fragile, weather‑dependent kharif outlook. With monsoon rains improving but overall kharif acreage still below last year, the near‑term bias for New Delhi sesame values remains moderately firm. Indian sesame markets are trading in a narrow but upward‑tilting range, as buyers resume coverage after the early‑season monsoon scare. Government data confirm that kharif sowing is still about 16% behind last year, even though July rains have helped narrow the deficit and improved conditions in parts of central and western India. For producers and exporters around New Delhi, the combination of recovering rainfall, delayed planting and resilient global import interest points to mildly supportive prices over the coming week, barring any abrupt shift in weather or currency.

Prices

All prices below are converted approximately from USD to EUR using 1 USD ≈ 0.92 EUR.

The upward drift since late June reflects both a recovery from earlier lows and a mild risk premium for monsoon uncertainty rather than a clear supply squeeze.

Supply & Demand

India entered kharif 2026 with a weak June monsoon linked to El Niño, delaying early sowing and keeping farmers cautious on oilseeds including sesame. In July, rainfall has improved across the core rain‑fed belt, trimming the national deficit to single digits and helping sowing accelerate, but total kharif acreage is still around 16% below last year.

For sesame specifically, this means planted area is likely below a normal year, especially in eastern pockets where June rains were deficient, while western producers in Maharashtra and parts of Gujarat have benefited from near‑normal to above‑normal precipitation and faster kharif progress. Export demand signals remain constructive: trade data trackers show active global buying interest for sesame (HS 120740), with key importers in Asia and Europe continuing to source sizeable volumes, underpinning Indian FOB offers around New Delhi.

Fundamentals & Weather

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) now projects near‑normal July rainfall at the all‑India level, but recent bulletins highlight an emerging phase of subdued rainfall over parts of northwest and peninsular India over the next week. For Delhi‑NCR specifically, the IMD outlook for July 14–17 calls for partly cloudy skies, light rain and maximum temperatures in the upper 30s°C, indicating warm but not extreme stress conditions for nearby rain‑fed sesame areas.

Improved July rains have reduced earlier monsoon anxiety, yet the delayed onset means soil moisture reserves are less comfortable than in a normal year and sowing is compressed into a shorter window. This tight calendar, alongside broader El Niño‑related uncertainty for the second half of the season, keeps upside risks alive for sesame yields and supports a modest weather premium in current prices.

3‑Day Outlook & Trading View (Region: IN)

Weather outlook (New Delhi & nearby growing belt, 14–17 July 2026)

• Temperatures: Highs 36–39°C, lows 26–30°C, slightly above seasonal but below heat‑wave thresholds.
• Rainfall: Partly cloudy with light, scattered showers; monsoon in a temporarily subdued phase over much of northwest India.
• Impact: Mostly neutral to mildly supportive for prices; conditions are not yet wet enough to fully remove crop‑failure risk, so buyers retain a weather risk premium.

Trading outlook (next 3–5 days, price view in EUR)

• Short‑term bias: Mildly bullish. Expect Indian hulled sesame FOB New Delhi to remain firm to slightly higher, with an approximate range bias of +0.5–1.5% from current EUR levels as long as rainfall stays patchy.
• For exporters: Consider locking in part of forward sales at current FOB levels for high‑purity hulled grades, while keeping some upside exposure in case monsoon conditions deteriorate again in late July.
• For importers (EU/Asia): Use any brief dips triggered by local showers or currency strength to extend coverage into Q3, prioritising EU‑grade 99.95–99.98% hulled where the premium over standard hulled remains modest.
• For domestic buyers in India: Given the lag in kharif acreage, avoid aggressive destocking; maintain working inventories through the next 2–3 weeks until a clearer picture of sown area and early crop condition emerges.

3‑day directional price indication (New Delhi, INR‑to‑EUR adjusted)

• Hulled sesame EU‑grade FOB: Stable to +1% in EUR terms.
• Natural white sesame FCA/FOB: Stable, with a slight upward bias if export enquiries increase.
• Black sesame (regular & Z grades) FOB/FCA: Stable after prior correction, tracking white sesame and any shifts in niche export demand.