India’s Record Harvest Poised to Reshape Global Sugar Market in 2025–26

The global sugar market is on the cusp of a new equilibrium as India steps into a decisive role for the 2025–26 season. Record domestic production, driven by expanded cane acreage, favorable weather, and improved yields across key Indian states, is projected to boost India’s output to 36 million tons — a 9% jump from the previous year. This surge sets the stage for India to not only meet robust domestic demand but also reassert itself as a heavyweight exporter, with up to 5 million tons poised for international markets.

The market has been tight in recent months, underpinned by lower-than-expected output in Brazil and Thailand, causing volatile pricing and concern among major buyers in Asia and Africa. India’s timely production gains and careful management of ethanol diversion may provide the global market both stability and relief from recent supply pressures. With competitive pricing and logistical advantages, Indian sugar is regaining its allure abroad, promising to shift global trade dynamics in the coming months. Meanwhile, European sugar prices have softened modestly, reflecting both the anticipation of Indian exports and healthy regional inventories. Market participants should closely watch for further updates on Indian production, domestic policy on exports, and the evolving global weather outlook — all of which could dramatically impact sugar flows and prices over the next quarter.

📈 Prices

Type	Origin	Location	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price (EUR/kg)	Update Date	Sentiment
Sugar granulated (ICUMSA 32, 0.300-0.600 mm)	GB	Norfolk	0.52	0.53	2025-10-08	Bearish
Sugar granulated (ICUMSA 32, 0.450-0.600 mm)	GB	Norfolk	0.52	0.53	2025-10-08	Bearish
Sugar granulated (ICUMSA 45, 0.212-0.425 mm)	GB	Norfolk	0.52	0.53	2025-10-08	Bearish
Sugar granulated (ICUMSA 45, 0.4-1.00 mm)	UA	Vinnytsia Oblast	0.52	0.53	2025-10-08	Bearish
Sugar granulated (ICUMSA 45, 0.4-1.00 mm)	UA	Vyškov, CZ	0.50	0.50	2025-10-08	Stable
Sugar granulated (ICUMSA 45, 0.2-1.2 mm, 99.7%)	LT	Mirijampole	0.49	0.51	2025-10-07	Bearish

🌍 Supply & Demand

• India: 2025–26 sugar output estimated at 36 million tons (+9% YoY), with 4.5–5 million tons available for export.
• Cane acreage in India rose 7–8% YoY, led by Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, and Karnataka.
• Brazil & Thailand: Recent tight supply due to weather issues.
• Domestic Demand (India): Remains strong; about 3.2 million tons will be diverted to ethanol.
• Exports: India to regain a strong foothold, with Asia and Africa as key markets.

📊 Fundamentals

• Global output rises, driven mainly by India’s surge. Potential stabilization of volatile prices seen in 2025.
• Market closely watching Indian export policy and ethanol program impacts.
• Speculative positioning is cautious, with short-term sentiment softening on European exchanges.
• EU prices show modest decline on anticipation of stronger global flows.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• India: Timely and ample monsoon rainfall in key cane-growing areas underpins this year’s yield gains.
• Outlook: IMD forecasts a generally normal to above-normal precipitation trend for the rest of the harvest window, reducing drought risk and supporting continued yield improvement.
• Brazil & Thailand: Mild forecasts ahead, but past dryness still affecting recovery pace.

🌐 Production & Stocks Comparison

Country	2024–25 Output (m t)	2025–26 Output (Est. m t)	Exports (Est. m t)
India	33	36	4.5–5
Brazil	40*	~39**	25–26
Thailand	8–9	9–10†	6–7
EU	16.5	17	1

*2024 strong but below forecasts; **estimates indicate possible dip due to weather. †Rebound expected on rainfall improvement.

💡 Trading Outlook & Key Insights

• Short-term price action remains soft amid expectations of robust Indian supply.
• Watch for new government guidance on Indian exports and ongoing ethanol diversion rates.
• EU prices are likely to remain under pressure but could rebound on any renewed global supply disruptions.
• Major importing countries, especially in Asia and Africa, likely to build additional stocks as prices ease.
• Speculators may seek short-term selling opportunities, but downside may be limited near cost-of-production levels globally.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Location	Current Price (EUR/kg)	3-Day Forecast
Norfolk, GB (ICUMSA 32/45)	0.52	0.51–0.52
Vyškov, CZ (ICUMSA 45)	0.50–0.54	0.49–0.53
Berlin, DE (ICUMSA 45)	0.62	0.61–0.62
Mirijampole, LT (ICUMSA 45, 99.7%)	0.49	0.48–0.49