India’s Sugar Market Firms on Festive Demand: Price Outlook and Global Drivers

The sugar market in India has recently shifted to firmer ground, driven by an upswing in consumer demand and steady levels of mill offerings across the country’s major trading hubs. As preparations for key festivals like Raksha Bandhan gather pace, bulk buying from stockists and institutional consumers has notably supported prices. Both M-grade and S-grade sugar experienced moderate price advances over the last week, with M-grade climbing by approximately $1.20 per quintal and S-grade by $1.80. North Indian markets, especially Muzaffarnagar and Delhi, saw continued robust activity, mirroring broader national optimism. This upward shift is further reinforced by resilient demand in urban centers such as Kolkata and active trading in southern regions. The Khandsari segment, integral to traditional and religious consumption, remained steady thanks to dedicated seasonal offtake. Market sentiment is trending positive, and analysts point out that, short of unexpected government regulatory changes or a global price downturn, further increases are likely near-term. The central drivers remain pre-festive domestic demand, mill supply discipline, and the ongoing watch on global trends and export policy from India’s authorities – all of which keep both speculators and end-users on alert for fresh market cues.

📈 Sugar Prices at Key Markets

Region/City	M-Grade (USD/quintal)	S-Grade (USD/quintal)	Weekly Trend	Sentiment
Muzaffarnagar	46.70–47.90	45.90–46.80	⬆️ +$1.20 (M), +$1.80 (S)	Bullish
Delhi	46.70–47.30	–	⬆️	Bullish
Western UP Mills	48.10–48.50	–	⬆️	Stable
Maharashtra & Gujarat	46.80–48.10	–	Stable	Positive
Kolkata	52.00–53.00	–	Stable	Strong
Southern India	49.30–50.70	47.60–48.80	Stable	Stable
Khandsari (North)	46.00–47.00	–	Stable	Resilient

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Domestic Demand: Festive season (Raksha Bandhan and August–September festivals) is driving bulk buying by stockists and institutional consumers.
• Mill Supplies: Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Gujarat mills are holding offer prices steady, with active local buying.
• Urban Retail Demand: Kolkata and southern cities are showing resilience, reflecting strong urban consumption.
• Khandsari Segment: Remains buoyant due to traditional use in sweets and religious functions.
• Global Factors: Export regulatory policy from India, movements in global sugar futures (ICE, LIFFE), and weather in Brazil impact India’s export competitiveness and domestic balance.

📊 Sugar Price Table (Selected EU Offers)

Origin	Type	Location	Price (EUR/kg)	Previous	Trend	Link
Lithuania (LT)	ICUMSA 45	Mirijampole	0.55	0.55	—	Offer
Lithuania (LT)	ICUMSA 45	Mirijampole	0.56	0.56	—	Offer
UK (GB)	ICUMSA 32	Norfolk	0.55	0.56	⬇️	Offer
Czech Rep. (CZ)	ICUMSA 45	Vyškov	0.58	0.57	⬆️	Offer

📉 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Inventory: Steady drawdown in Indian mill stocks, ongoing demand for restocking by traders.
• Speculative Activity: Futures market positioning remains watchful ahead of policy announcements on exports from Indian authorities.
• USDA Reports: The recent USDA outlook suggests Indian output may recover, but domestic prices remain sensitive to rapid changes in government export policy.
• Global Competition: Brazil’s exports and weather risks could shift the cost curve in Q3, while EU offers remain stable in EUR terms.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Yield Analysis

• Northern India: Monsoon conditions mostly normal, supporting standing cane crop but localized heavy rains in UP could delay some harvests.
• Western & Southern India: Adequate rainfall over the past two weeks; moisture levels still need to be sustained for optimal finish.
• Brazil: Drier pattern but no immediate threat to current cane harvest; potential yield gains may have limited impact on global price in the next 2 weeks.

Analysis: Current weather is broadly supportive, with no major disruptions expected in the next week. However, any monsoon shortfall or excessive rainfall in India could trigger renewed price spikes by disrupting cane arrivals to mills.

🌏 Production & Stock Comparison

Country	Estimated Output 2024/25 (mn tons)	Carryover Stocks (mn tons)	Status
India	33.5	7.5	Domestic focus, export policy pending
Brazil	41.0	9.0	Export leader
EU	15.5	3.6	Stable, high stocks
Thailand	9.5	2.1	Moderate
China	11.0	6.8	Large imports

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Bulk buyers should prioritize securing near-term supply as festive demand will likely keep prices firm in August.
• Stockists can expect further price appreciation if mill supplies remain disciplined; hedging suggested.
• Watch for any Indian government export policy decisions that could drastically alter domestic and international pricing.
• EU importers: monitor BRL fluctuations and India regulatory headlines for signs of volatility in global offers.
• Speculators: consider modest bullish positions until September, barring negative policy or weather surprises.

🔮 Regional 3-day Price Forecast (in USD/quintal)

Region	Current	Day 1	Day 2	Day 3
Muzaffarnagar (M-grade)	47.30	47.40	47.50	47.60
Maharashtra	48.10	48.20	48.30	48.40
Kolkata	53.00	53.10	53.15	53.20