AISTA Estimates
AISTA estimates a 4% dip in India’s sugar production, projecting a yield of 31.6 million tonnes, a slight dip from the previous season’s 32.9 million tonnes. However, seasoned industry experts caution against the precision of such early forecasts, emphasizing the variability associated with pre-crushing predictions. The industry adage holds that estimates made in January wield greater reliability and provide a more transparent lens into the impending sugar market.
Ethanol Elevation
An intriguing subplot surfaces as AISTA’s estimate excludes a potential 2 million tonnes of sucrose earmarked for ethanol production. The government’s steadfast decision to cap sucrose diversion at 1.7 million tonnes throughout the season raises eyebrows. Considering the trade body’s optimistic estimate, the industry speculates a potential governmental pivot in the coming days.
An 8.2 Million Tonne Closing Stock
In the middle of this sentimental spectacle, the projected closing stock is 8.2 million tonnes for the 2023-24 season. AISTA projects a sugar availability of 37.3 million tonnes, eclipsing the estimated domestic consumption of 29 million tonnes.
Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Karnataka in the Limelight
Uttar Pradesh emerges as the lead protagonist, showcasing a 9.3% surge in production, reaching 11.7 million tonnes. A seasoned performer, Maharashtra prepares for a 10.3% dip, setting its sights on 9.6 million tonnes. Karnataka anticipates a 16.1% decline, aiming for a production of 4.7 million tonnes. Meanwhile, other states await their projections, with a potential production of 4.2 million tonnes.
Extended Milling Season In UP
Uttar Pradesh introduces an unexpected twist as sugarcane diversion to gur and khandsari units surpasses the previous season. The allure of higher prices beckons farmers, contributing to a bumper crop in the state. This will result in an extended milling season, with mills potentially operating until March’s end and some daring to tread into the first fortnight of April.
Nature’s Fury on Sugarcane Crops
Nature adds unpredictable strokes to the sugar crops, with unseasonal rains in Maharashtra enhancing yields and sucrose. The unregistered crop steps into the limelight, unexpectedly boosting sugarcane availability. This unforeseen turn may extend the crushing season in Maharashtra, offering a prolonged window for maturation and heightened sucrose content.
Conclusion
AISTA estimates a 4% dip in India’s sugar production, cautioning against early precision. The government’s cap on sucrose diversion sparks speculation. Closing stock projected at 8.2 million tonnes exceeds domestic consumption.
Uttar Pradesh leads the production surge, while Maharashtra and Karnataka face declines. Unexpected twists include extended milling season in UP and nature’s impact on yields. AISTA’s estimate considers standing crops, ethanol diversions, and crushing volumes for a clearer picture.
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