India's Sweet Future: Sugar Shortages on the Horizon?

India’s Sweet Future: Sugar Shortages on the Horizon?

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Assuring Adequate Sugar Supply in India 

(Dispelling Rumors, Steady Prices & Supply Concerns)

India’s food secretary dispelled reports about the looming sugar shortage in the country as a ‘rumor’ and a government statement on Thursday said the sweetener will be available in the most populated country at reasonable prices throughout the year.

Availability of sugar in the country is about 8.5 million tons as of now, which is sufficient for three and a half months of the consumption requirement of the country. We are not forcing any kind of upswing in the price in the upcoming festive season and there is some kind of a rumor being created about the shortages in the country,” said Food Secretary Sanjiv Chopra.

This comes amid widespread concerns that sugar production may be low in the country, which is the world’s second-largest sugar producer and a major exporter. There were also reports that the government may consider banning sugar exports to control potential price spikes amid supply shortages. Output in Maharashtra, India’s top sugar producing state, is also feared to hit the lowest in four years.

Government Measures to Ensure Sugar Availability

(Strategic Planning, Production Insights, Export Controls)

The Department of Food and Public Distribution from the Ministry of Consumer Affairs on Thursday said that timely measures by New Delhi have ensured sufficient availability of sugar at reasonable prices across states for the whole year.

As the current Sugar Season (Oct-Sep) 2022-23 is coming to an end on September 30, India has already crossed sugar production of 330 LMT excluding diversion of about 43 LMT for ethanol production. Thus, total sucrose production in the country would be about 373 LMT which is the second highest in the last 5 sugar seasons, added the official statement.

Ensuring priority to citizens of the country and clearance of cane due to farmers, India restricted export quota to about 61 LMT only. This has resulted in an optimal stock of approximately 83 LMT of sugar at the end of August 2023.

This stock is sufficient to meet approximately 3 and half months of consumption i.e. optimum stock available in the country at the end of the current sugar season 2022-23. This fact reassures the domestic consumers that sugar is expected to be available for them at a reasonable price in the future, read the official statement further.

Industry Response and Future Outlook

(Weather Factors, Monitoring Supply, Farmer Enthusiasm)

Meanwhile, sugar companies’ shares soared on Thursday after reports that output in Maharashtra could fall. This could lead to higher sugar prices and boost the profitability of top companies in the sector, said analysts.

Sakthi Sugars jumped 11.3%, Dhampur Sugar gained 10.4%, Dwarikesh Sugar rose 9.8%, Bajaj Hindusthan advanced 7.2% and Balrampur Chini moved up 4.8%.

The rains were deficient in August. However, the heartening feature is that since the beginning of this month, the rains have been good as a result of which the crops have revived, particularly in Maharashtra and Karnataka,” the food secretary said.

As forecast by IMD, till date monsoon has been normal this month and sugarcane areas of Maharashtra and Karnataka have also received rains, improving prospects for better crops and recovery in the ensuing Sugar Season 2023-24. State Cane Commissioners of all sugar-producing states have been requested to keep a watch on the status of crops and update their information on area under cane, yield, and anticipated sugar production. This information would become the basis for making any decision regarding sugar export policy for next season.

In conclusion, India’s proactive measures and ample sugar reserves ensure the continued availability and affordability of this essential commodity for its citizens, dispelling concerns of a sugar shortage.

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