Japan Soybeans: Domestic Acres Contract as Crushers Pivot Toward Canola

Japan’s soybean market is entering MY 2025/26 with structurally ample supplies but weakening domestic crush demand, as crushers increasingly favor canola on superior margins. For buyers, this means comfortable availability of beans and meal, while producers face pressure from stagnant food demand and competition from rice and canola.

Japan’s planted soybean area fell sharply in 2025 as farmers shifted back into table rice in response to rice shortages and higher paddy prices, even though soybean yields held up well in Hokkaido. At the same time, crushers are trimming soybean runs and lifting canola throughput, helped by exceptionally strong canola crush margins. End‑users of food‑grade soy and feed protein can expect generally good supply security, but price upside will be capped by sizeable stocks and abundant global soybean meal.

📈 Prices & Market Tone

International soybean prices remain relatively soft in early 2026, aligning with Japan’s narrative of abundant soybean meal and strong competition from alternative proteins. Domestic crush margins for soybeans have weakened versus canola, prompting crushers to favor rapeseed while still maintaining adequate soybean oil and meal output for the local market. With Japan holding higher soybean stocks and relying heavily on imports, domestic spot prices are more constrained by global benchmarks and currency effects than by local crop shortfalls.

Origin	Type	Delivery (FOB)	Latest Price (EUR/kg)
China	Yellow, organic	Beijing, FOB	0.74
China	Yellow	Beijing, FOB	0.65
India	Sortex clean	New Delhi, FOB	0.92

🌍 Supply & Demand in Japan

Japan’s soybean area dropped from about 154,000 ha in MY 2024/25 to an estimated 141,000 ha in MY 2025/26, an 8% decline as farmers prioritized rice on paddy land. Despite this contraction, yields remained robust in Hokkaido, where dryfield soybeans benefited from favorable late‑season rains and the adoption of high‑yield food‑grade varieties. As a result, soybean production is estimated to slip only modestly from 252,000 MT in MY 2024/25 to around 239,000 MT in MY 2025/26, before a projected rebound to 245,000 MT as area recovers toward 150,000 ha in MY 2026/27.

Japan’s soybean market is structurally import‑dependent: domestic beans cover roughly 30% of the food‑grade segment, while about 80% of total soybean imports are feed‑grade and 20% food‑grade. Imports reached 3.24 MMT in MY 2024/25 and are forecast at 3.30 MMT in MY 2025/26, easing to about 3.07 MMT in MY 2026/27 as canola crush expands further. The United States remains the dominant supplier at roughly two‑thirds of total imports, supported by oil quality, with Brazil and Canada filling protein and food‑grade niches. Elevated domestic stocks and policy support for diversifying origins further underpin supply security.

📊 Fundamentals: Crush, Meal & Oil

Crush dynamics are at the core of Japan’s soybean outlook. Soybean crush increased to about 2.51 MMT in MY 2024/25, but is forecast to decline to 2.45 MMT in MY 2025/26 and 2.40 MMT in MY 2026/27 as crushers respond to stronger canola margins and sluggish vegetable oil demand. Rapeseed crush, by contrast, is expected to hold near 2.15 MMT, with scope to increase if canola meal can be absorbed by the feed sector. The shift in oilseed mix implies only a gradual downtrend in soybean oil and meal output, not an abrupt tightening.

Soybean meal production is projected to dip from 1.89 MMT in MY 2024/25 to about 1.84 MMT in MY 2025/26 and 1.80 MMT in MY 2026/27, even as total soybean meal consumption holds near 3.50 MMT thanks to abundant and competitively priced imports. Feed protein demand from livestock and aquaculture remains remarkably stable, with soybean meal accounting for roughly one‑third of total digestible protein usage, while rapeseed meal, corn by‑products, and animal‑derived meals flex around it. On the oil side, soybean oil output is forecast to edge down from roughly 507,000 MT in MY 2024/25 to 490,000 MT in MY 2025/26 amid flat overall vegetable oil demand near 2.5 MMT and rising competition from palm and rice bran oils.

🌦️ Weather & Structural Drivers

Recent growing seasons have highlighted Japan’s regional weather risk. Hokkaido soybeans benefited from hot, dry early summer conditions followed by timely August rains, delivering record yields and underpinning national output in MY 2025/26. In contrast, much of Honshu and other regions suffered from sustained heat and limited rainfall for a second consecutive year, depressing yields and reinforcing the dependence on Hokkaido’s performance. The forward‑looking production forecast to 245,000 MT in MY 2026/27 assumes a return to five‑year average yields.

Beyond weather, structural demand in Japan’s food soybean segment is broadly flat: annual food use is projected to remain around 900,000 MT. Within that stable volume, consumption is gradually shifting from tofu and miso toward natto and soymilk, reflecting changing demographics and more single‑person households seeking convenient, affordable protein. At the same time, vegetable oil demand is capped by population decline, high price sensitivity, and efficiency gains in foodservice and manufacturing, limiting upside for soybean oil even when beans are readily available.

📆 Trading Outlook & Strategy

• Importers / Crushers (Japan): Favor flexible procurement of U.S. and Brazilian beans while exploiting current policy support for origin switching and elevated stocks. Lean into canola where crush margins justify, but retain enough soy throughput to serve premium oil and meal niches.
• Food‑grade Buyers: Use the current surplus‑to‑balanced environment and high stocks to secure medium‑term contracts at stable premiums, especially for non‑GE and IP origins. Watch for eventual tightening after MY 2025/26 if domestic area recovers only slowly.
• Feed Millers / Livestock Integrators: Continue to arbitrage between imported soybean meal, rapeseed meal and corn by‑products. With global soybean meal abundant, shorter‑dated procurement strategies remain viable, but monitor any policy or logistical shifts that could alter Japan’s import mix.

📉 Short-Term Price Direction (Next 3 Days)

• CIF Japan, crushing soybeans: Sideways to slightly softer in EUR terms, as strong stocks and firm canola margins cap any rally.
• Food‑grade soybeans (non‑GE, IP): Stable, with adequate domestic and North American availability despite earlier inventory overhang.
• Soybean meal (delivered feed hubs): Flat bias, reflecting steady feed demand and plentiful imported supplies.