Kenyan Organic Macadamias Hold Firm as Export Demand Slowly Recovers

Kenyan organic macadamia kernel export prices are stable-to-firm, with FOB offers around EUR 25.2/kg and only marginal week-on-week gains, reflecting a balanced but fragile market. Ample global supply and cautious demand from Europe, the US and China are capping upside, yet investors’ renewed interest in high-value nuts is helping to underpin Kenyan quotations. Kenya’s macadamia sector enters August with relatively steady prices despite lingering headwinds from previously weak kernel demand in key destinations. Exporters benefit from gradual recovery in premium-snack and confectionery demand and from investors’ growing focus on macadamia as a high-margin tree crop. At the same time, global production is rising, particularly in South Africa, Australia and China, keeping buyers well supplied and preventing a sharp rebound in prices. Local weather in the Kenyan highlands is seasonally cool and dry, supporting post-harvest handling rather than active flowering pressure. For now, the market appears range-bound, with modest upside risks if demand continues to normalise.

Prices

FOB Kenya offers for organic macadamia nut kernels are holding around EUR 25.2/kg, essentially flat over the past four weeks with only a slight uptick from late July, signalling a stable but not yet bullish market. Export-level prices remain well above historical farm-gate lows seen in recent seasons, as the shift toward in-shell exports and gradual demand recovery have improved overall price realisation for Kenyan growers and processors.

Supply & Demand

Global macadamia production continues to expand, with industry projections for 2026 indicating increased crops in South Africa, Australia and China, alongside moderate growth in Kenya’s output. This broad-based supply growth keeps kernel availability comfortable and constrains aggressive price appreciation for Kenyan exports, even as the country’s own volumes trend higher.

On the demand side, the EU, UK, US and Japan remain the primary kernel outlets, while China and Vietnam have strengthened their role as buyers of in-shell macadamias for processing. Earlier weakness in kernel demand from the US and Europe weighed heavily on prices, but recent trade data and market commentary suggest a gradual recovery in premium nut consumption, supported by the healthy-snacking trend and substitution away from more expensive nuts in some segments.

Fundamentals & Local Context

Kenya has been scaling up macadamia plantings in recent years, particularly in the central highlands and parts of the eastern region, with more young orchards entering bearing age and lifting medium-term supply potential. Government policy allowing export of nuts-in-shell has broadened market channels, helping support farm-gate prices by opening additional demand streams in Asian processing hubs.

Despite this expansion, profitability along the value chain remains uneven, with evidence that a significant share of value still leaks out between farm and export, due to post-harvest losses and limited domestic processing capacity. Recent investor discussions in Kenya have highlighted macadamias—along with sesame and groundnuts—as among the highest per-unit value crops, reinforcing continued interest in new plantings and improved processing infrastructure.

Weather & Growing Conditions (Kenya)

As of early August, central Kenyan highlands—key macadamia zones—are in their typical cool, largely dry season following the main March–May long rains. Local reports indicate July passed with mostly cold, dry weather and little significant rainfall, conditions that are broadly normal for this time of year and supportive of post-harvest handling rather than active vegetative growth.

Earlier in the year, heavy rainfall and flooding episodes affected parts of Kenya, but current narratives point toward more settled conditions in the highlands, with no major new disruptions reported in the last few days. For existing 2026-crop stocks, this implies limited near-term weather risk; the next key weather watchpoint will be the onset and distribution of the short rains later in the year, which influence flowering and nut set for the subsequent crop cycle.

Trading Outlook & 3-day View

• Short-term bias: Sideways to mildly firm; FOB kernel prices around EUR 25.2/kg are likely to hold over the coming days amid stable export demand and no fresh supply shocks.
• For exporters: Consider locking in near-term contracts at current levels while maintaining some volume unpriced for Q4 in case of further demand recovery in Europe and North America.
• For importers/roasters: Current prices offer limited downside risk in the very short term; staggered purchases over the next 4–8 weeks can balance price risk against potential tightening if global demand accelerates.
• For growers/investors in Kenya: With macadamias still commanding one of the highest value-per-kilo profiles, focus on improving post-harvest handling and quality to capture stronger FOB-linked premiums in upcoming seasons.

Given stable weather in Kenya’s macadamia belt and comfortable global supply, no significant price moves are expected over the next three days. Market participants should monitor any new indications of demand acceleration from EU and US buyers, as well as updated crop guidance from major Southern Hemisphere producers, for the next decisive signal.