Lentils: Indian Masoor Demand Meets Heavy Canadian & Australian Supply

Indian lentil (masoor) prices are set to trade in a relatively narrow range as heavy overseas availability from Canada and Australia collides with rising festival demand and tight domestic arrivals. Upside is capped by strong import flows and sizeable central stocks, while downside is cushioned by seasonal consumption and limited fresh supplies from Indian farmers. India’s masoor market currently sits at the intersection of record-like import volumes, firm regional demand from eastern states, and comfortable public stock levels. Imports surged about 73% year-on-year to roughly 1.15 million tonnes in January–July 2026, with Canada and Australia as key origins. This is complemented by an estimated 560,000 tonnes in the central pool, ensuring ample cover. Yet, domestic arrivals remain constrained ahead of the main rabi harvest, keeping market participants cautious about aggressive price offers into key consuming centers.

Prices

Export quotations in Canada have softened slightly in recent weeks, consistent with the strong North American crop backdrop. Canadian FOB Ottawa prices (EUR) currently indicate a mild downward bias compared with early September, reflecting good exportable supplies:

Price action is consistent with the fundamental picture: heavy Canadian and Australian supplies are weighing on origin values, while Indian domestic wholesale masoor prices tend to track these benchmarks with a lag, adjusted for freight and currency. At the same time, the absence of sustained selling pressure from Indian farmers, combined with festival-led buying, is preventing a deeper correction on the spot market.

Supply & Demand

The central driver of India’s masoor balance is the surge in imports. From January to July 2026, India imported about 1.15 million tonnes of masoor, roughly 73% higher than the 663,583 tonnes over the same period last year. During April–July alone, arrivals exceeded 577,000 tonnes, more than triple year-ago volumes. This aligns with broader trade data showing masoor as one of the fastest-growing pulse import segments into India this year. 

On top of commercial imports, India’s central pool holds around 560,000 tonnes of masoor, offering a sizeable buffer against any short-term supply shock. Nonetheless, domestic arrivals of Indian-origin masoor into mandis remain limited, restricting spot availability from local farmers. Seasonal consumption is now set to increase, especially in Bihar, West Bengal, Assam and other eastern states, as the festival season gains pace and household stocking picks up.

Globally, Canada and Australia are both coming off large lentil crops. Canada entered 2025–26 with record lentil supplies and elevated carry-out stocks, pushing more volume into export channels. Australia, meanwhile, is forecast to harvest a second consecutive record lentil crop of around 2.3 million tonnes in 2026–27, more than double its 10-year average. This combination of ample origin supply and strong Indian import demand underpins the current range-bound equilibrium rather than a classic tightness scenario.

Fundamentals & External Drivers

Several structural and short-term factors are shaping the masoor complex:

• Import policy & trade flows: Liberal import conditions and competitive offers from Canada and Australia have accelerated masoor inflows, supporting high availability at Indian ports and in trade channels.
• Public stocks: The estimated 560,000 tonnes in the central pool increase the government’s capacity to intervene if retail prices spike, dampening bullish expectations among traders.
• Competing pulses & protein inflation: While some other pulses (notably tur and urad) have shown firmer price trends on weather and supply risks, masoor has benefited from more dependable origins, helping keep its relative valuation stable within India’s broader protein basket.
• Weather backdrop: Recent concerns about uneven monsoon rains and delayed sowing for parts of the 2026–27 rabi season may pose a medium-term risk if they translate into lower Indian lentil yields, but the impact has not yet materially altered near-term supply perceptions given the strong import pipeline.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

With heavy overseas availability and supportive but not explosive festival demand, the masoor market is expected to stay broadly range-bound with limited downside in the coming weeks. Strong Canadian and Australian crops will continue to cap rallies in imported categories, but tight domestic arrivals and ongoing offtake from eastern consuming regions should prevent a sharp break lower.

• Importers / millers in India: Use dips in imported masoor offers, especially from Canada and Australia, to secure coverage through the main festival window, but avoid overbuying given ample central stocks and steady import flows.
• Exporters in Canada & Australia: Expect continued Indian demand but be prepared for aggressive price competition and occasional tender-based buying driven by public stock management; locking in forward sales on modest rallies may be prudent.
• Traders: Strategy should focus on trading the range: consider light long positions near recent support levels where festival demand and domestic tightness are most visible, and scale back length as imported replacement costs rise into well-supplied global markets.

3-Day Directional View

• India (masoor, key mandis): Largely steady with a slight firm tone in eastern consuming centers as festival demand picks up and local arrivals remain thin.
• Canada FOB (green & red types): Mildly soft to sideways over the next three days, reflecting comfortable on-farm stocks and ongoing export competition.
• Australia FOB: Stable to slightly softer, with markets already pricing in expectations of another very large 2026–27 lentil harvest.