Lentils Under Pressure as Indian Masoor Softens but Global Supply Stays Ample

Domestic lentil prices in India are easing as buying from dal mills slows, but tight private stocks and upcoming festive demand should limit further downside. Abundant exportable supply from Australia and Canada is set to cap any sharp rallies, keeping the global lentil market in a broadly range-bound, slightly soft tone. Indian masoor has weakened for a third consecutive session, reflecting reduced procurement by dal mills despite limited domestic arrivals and low private carryover. At the same time, imported lentils at Indian ports are trading steady to slightly softer, helped by expectations of a second consecutive record Australian crop and ample Canadian stocks. This combination of softer near‑term demand in India and heavy global availability points to a market where rallies are likely to be sold into, yet robust seasonal consumption in eastern India should also prevent a deep correction.

Prices

Delhi desi masoor is quoted around USD 72.5–72.8 per quintal, while imported Australian lentils in Mumbai containers trade near USD 64.8–65.1, and Canadian origins around USD 62.2–66.9 per quintal depending on port. Converted at roughly 1 USD = 0.92 EUR, this implies:

• Desi masoor, Delhi: about 66.7–67.0 EUR/100 kg
• Australian lentils, Mumbai: about 59.6–59.9 EUR/100 kg
• Canadian lentils, Indian ports: about 57.2–61.6 EUR/100 kg

Global export offers remain broadly stable to slightly softer. Recent FOB indications from Canada and China for dried lentils translate to roughly 0.87–2.04 EUR/kg depending on type and origin, with green types from Canada near 1.17–1.21 EUR/kg and Chinese small greens below 1.00 EUR/kg, underscoring the comfortable global supply backdrop.

Supply & Demand

In India, domestic arrivals of masoor remain limited and private carryover stocks are described as low, suggesting structurally tight local availability. However, government stocks are comfortable, reducing the risk of outright shortage and allowing policy to smooth any sharp price spikes if needed.

On the demand side, traders anticipate stronger seasonal consumption from Bihar, West Bengal and Assam as the festive period approaches, which should improve mill buying after the current soft patch. This expected demand recovery will meet a wave of competitively priced imported lentils, meaning domestic tightness will be partly offset by external supply.

Globally, Australia’s 2026–27 lentil crop is now forecast around 2.25 million tonnes, about 2% above the June estimate of 2.21 million tonnes and set for a second consecutive record harvest amid favourable growing conditions in Victoria and South Australia. Recent Australian export data already show robust lentil shipments, and the coming harvest will further boost exportable surpluses. 

Canada is also expected to remain well supplied. Latest stock figures show Canadian lentil inventories more than doubling year on year to around 1.3 million tonnes as of July 31, following a record harvest and strong exports, while seeded area for 2026 is slightly reduced but still large. This points to continued ample availability from Canada as a key balancing supplier to South Asia and the Mediterranean.

Fundamentals & Weather

The fundamental setup is one of comfortable global supply facing seasonally improving demand. Australia is heading into harvest with high yield potential after an "ideal" growing season to date in key lentil regions, supporting the 2.25 million tonne forecast. While Indian private stocks are low, government reserves and large import programs anchor the market.

Weather risks are modest but worth monitoring. Australian outlooks indicate generally drier and warmer conditions for southeastern cropping zones into spring, consistent with El Niño, though plant-available moisture remains near normal in many lentil areas and no major stress has been reported so far. At this point, weather is more a secondary than a primary driver for lentil prices.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Strategy

Market commentary suggests that imported lentil availability will cap rallies, while limited domestic arrivals and stronger seasonal consumption should restrict any major decline. In practice, this argues for a broadly sideways market with a mild downward bias as the Australian crop enters the pipeline.

• For buyers (mills, packers): Use current softness in Indian masoor and competitive offers from Australia/Canada to extend coverage through the festive season, but avoid chasing the market lower given tight local stocks.
• For growers/exporters (Australia, Canada): Consider forward sales or hedging on price strength ahead of harvest pressure, as record Australian output and ample Canadian stocks limit upside.
• For traders: Expect range-bound trading; selling rallies near recent Indian spot highs while covering dips against key support levels appears justified as long as no major weather or policy shock emerges.

3-Day Directional View (Key Hubs, in EUR)

• India (Delhi, desi masoor): Slight further downside or consolidation around ~67 EUR/100 kg as mill demand remains cautious, with support from impending festive buying.
• India ports (Australian/Canadian lentils): Steady to slightly softer around 57–60 EUR/100 kg as global supply expectations remain heavy.
• FOB exporters (Canada/China): Mostly stable in EUR terms over the next few days, reflecting balanced nearby demand against strong stocks.