Mexican Pecan Prices Hold Firm as Market Watches Smaller 2025/26 Crop

Mexican pecan prices are holding essentially steady, with only marginal firming in organic broken kernels and flat values in conventional halves. With Mexico expected to harvest a smaller 2025/26 crop than last season while global demand remains solid, the near-term tone is stable-to-firm rather than weak. In the last weeks of July, FOB Mexico City offers for Mexican origin pecans have shown very limited movement, suggesting a balanced spot market with neither clear oversupply nor acute shortage. The broader global pecan balance points to slightly tighter supplies from Mexico in 2025/26 after a strong 2024/25 crop, while the United States remains the dominant producer and consumer. At the same time, no disruptive weather has emerged in key Mexican producing states, and export demand from the US and other markets is reported as steady rather than overheated, supporting a sideways to mildly firmer price outlook rather than a correction lower.

Prices

FOB Mexico City prices (approximate, converted to EUR at 1 USD = 0.92 EUR):

Halves have traded in a narrow band through July with no net weekly change at the latest update, while organic broken kernels have edged up only fractionally over consecutive weeks. The very small price increments point to a market that is gently supported by fundamentals but not facing aggressive short-term buying.

Supply & Demand

Global pecan supply is dominated by the United States and Mexico. Recent international nut industry data indicate that Mexico’s crop is projected to decline from around 64,800 tonnes in 2024/25 to roughly 47,500 tonnes in 2025/26, reducing its total supply even though beginning stocks remain small. This moderates export availability compared with last season.

The United States is expected to increase production modestly in 2025/26, helping offset Mexico’s smaller crop at the global level, but overall world output is seen slightly lower year-on-year. Consumption, especially in North America and emerging Asian markets, is forecast to remain firm, leaving only limited room for inventory rebuilding. As a result, users relying heavily on Mexican origin should not expect a return to significantly lower prices in the coming months.

Weather & Crop Conditions (Mexico)

Pecan production in Mexico is concentrated in northern states such as Chihuahua and Coahuila, where orchards are highly sensitive to heat and water availability. Historical agronomic and trade reports underline that water access and temperature swings are key determinants of nut size and kernel quality in these regions.

Over the past few days, no major new weather extremes or damage reports have emerged from these northern Mexican states that would materially alter current 2025/26 crop expectations. Available regional economic and climate references for Chihuahua up to late spring 2026 point to normal variability rather than a structural shock to tree nut output this year. In the very short term, growing conditions appear neutral for price direction.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

International pecan statistics for 2024/25 and 2025/26 suggest that total world supply, while adequate, is not burdensome. Mexico’s expected reduction in crop size is the most notable bearish-to-bullish shift on the supply side, even as US output grows modestly. Ending stocks at the global level are projected to increase only slightly, implying that any demand surprise would be felt relatively quickly in prices.

Analytical work on pecan price formation shows that price reactions to supply-demand imbalances tend to materialize with a delay across marketing seasons, and that in-shell and kernel markets respond somewhat differently to shifts in fundamentals. The current stability in Mexican kernel and halves prices is therefore consistent with a market that is transitioning from a large-crop year to a tighter one, with participants waiting for clearer evidence on new-season yields and export flows before repricing more aggressively.

Trading Outlook (Next 1–3 Months)

• Bias: Stable-to-firm for Mexican pecan halves and organic broken kernels, given the projected smaller Mexican 2025/26 crop and firm global demand.
• Buyers: End-users with Q4 2026–Q1 2027 needs should consider locking in a portion of requirements at current EUR levels, particularly for organic kernels where incremental premiums could widen if supply tightens.
• Sellers: Mexican handlers can maintain an offer-side stance close to current levels, watching US crop and export demand indicators before granting meaningful discounts.
• Risks: Upside risk stems from any late-season weather issues in northern Mexico or quality problems in the US crop; downside risk would require a notable demand slowdown or stronger-than-expected US production.

3‑Day Price Indication (Region: MX)

Given the absence of fresh supply or weather shocks and the very tight recent trading range, Mexican FOB pecan prices are expected to remain broadly unchanged over the next three days:

• Conventional pecan halves (FOB Mexico City, MX): ~24.6–24.8 EUR/kg, stable bias.
• Organic broken pecan kernels (FOB Mexico City, MX): ~19.8–20.0 EUR/kg, stable to slightly firmer if nearby demand improves.

Short-term volatility is likely to be minimal unless unexpected export tenders or weather headlines emerge; spreads between halves and broken kernels should remain close to current levels.