Millet (Bajra) Buyers Stay on the Sidelines as Feed Demand Cools

Millet (bajra) prices are under mild downward pressure as weak buying from consuming industries and the feed sector caps any attempt to follow firmer trends seen in other grains. With demand subdued and no major supply shock in sight, near‑term price risks remain slightly biased to the downside. Millet markets are currently caught between comfortable spot availability and lacklustre offtake. Bajra in the Mauli–Barwala area is trading slightly easier, while export- and Black Sea–oriented millet prices are broadly stable in euro terms, indicating that local demand, rather than global supply stress, is the main drag. Indian wholesale bajra prices have slipped modestly in late August, and government support schemes have so far not translated into a decisive uplift in industrial or feed usage. For now, buyers are well covered, and sellers may need to accept narrower premiums to move volume.

Prices

Bajra prices in the Mauli–Barwala delivery area softened over the week amid subdued buying interest, with delivery parcels reported around ≈€22.0 per quintal and ex‑warehouse material near ≈€21.9 per quintal (converted from USD). Locally, this confirms a mild bearish tone despite firmness in some other coarse grains.

In India, the national average bajra mandi price is around €24–25 per quintal, down a few percent over the past week and trading well below the 2026/27 MSP, underscoring weak market power for farmers. Export‑oriented millet offers are comparatively steady: Ukrainian millet seeds are indicated around €340 per tonne FCA Odesa, while non‑organic hulled kernels from Ukraine are roughly €610 per tonne. High‑purity Chinese hulled millet is offered near €830–910 per tonne FOB, showing only marginal week‑on‑week moves.

Supply & Demand

The key feature of the current millet market is not a supply shock but lacklustre demand from consuming industries. Food and processing buyers are well covered and showing little urgency to extend positions, which prevents bajra from participating in the strength observed in some other coarse grains.

The feed sector remains the pivotal swing factor. Latest Indian data indicate that millet use in feed rations is growing structurally but from a low base, with year‑to‑year fluctuations depending on relative prices versus corn and sorghum. For now, softer bajra prices have not yet triggered a strong substitution wave, as compounders still prefer more familiar energy grains and are cautious amid uncertain downstream demand in poultry and livestock.

Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamentally, millet balances are relatively comfortable. Recent official projections for India, the world’s largest millet producer and consumer, show stable to slightly higher production and only moderate stock changes in 2025/26, implying no imminent tightness. Combined with steady export offers out of Ukraine and China, the global pipeline appears adequately supplied.

Weather in major Indian kharif millet belts (Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat) has been mixed but generally sufficient for crop establishment, with no major drought scare reported in late August. As long as monsoon rainfall in September stays near normal, yield risk should remain contained, reinforcing the current bearish tilt in local spot markets.

Short‑Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

• Price bias: With subdued industrial and feed buying and adequate supply, bajra and millet prices are likely to stay soft to sideways in the next 1–2 weeks, barring a monsoon or policy surprise.
• Feed buyers: Consider gradual coverage on dips rather than aggressive forward purchases. Current discounts of bajra versus corn and MSP favour opportunistic buying, but the absence of strong demand suggests limited upside risk near term.
• Farmers & stockists: Avoid heavy accumulation at current levels in expectation of a quick rebound. Focus on order‑based sales to processors and feed mills, and monitor any improvement in festival‑related demand that could temporarily lift prices.
• Exporters: Ukrainian and Chinese offers are competitive and stable; hedge currency risk rather than flat price, as euro‑denominated values have been relatively steady despite local softness in India.

3‑Day Directional View (EUR)

• Mauli–Barwala bajra (India): Slight downside to flat; buyers remain cautious, with trades likely to hover just below current ≈€22/qtl levels.
• UA millet seeds & kernels (Odesa FCA): Sideways; no strong catalyst to move quotes away from €0.34–0.61/kg in the very short term.
• CN hulled millet (Beijing FOB): Sideways; prices around €0.83–0.91/kg are expected to hold as export demand is steady but unspectacular.