Millet Market Steady as Feed Demand Supports Coarse Grain Complex

Millet prices are broadly stable to mildly firm, supported indirectly by stronger demand for competing coarse grains in India’s feed sector and steady export offers from Ukraine and China in both seed and kernel segments. Across the coarse-grain complex in New Delhi, maize and bajra have strengthened on the back of higher poultry and cattle-feed buying, while wheat and some rice varieties have softened under pressure from new-crop arrivals. This supportive backdrop for feed cereals underpins the outlook for millet, particularly in markets where pearl millet competes directly with maize as a low-cost energy ingredient. Export indications out of Odesa and Beijing show only minor week‑on‑week adjustments in euro terms, reinforcing a picture of a balanced market with limited near‑term downside unless weather or policy shocks emerge.

Prices

In New Delhi, coarse grains are diverging: maize and bajra (pearl millet) have moved higher on stronger feed demand, while wheat and new 1509 rice are weaker amid rising arrivals of the fresh crop. Bajra has firmed to roughly the equivalent of mid‑20s USD per quintal, tracking the same order of magnitude as maize, which is quoted slightly higher in the upper‑20s USD per quintal range.

In India’s wider mandis, current modal pearl millet prices cluster around INR 2,100–2,700 per quintal, implying roughly EUR 21–27/q (about EUR 0.21–0.27/kg) at current exchange rates, with localized spikes where supplies are tight.  This confirms the firm but not runaway tone already visible in Delhi’s coarse grain complex.

Supply & Demand

In India, feed manufacturers are currently the main engine of demand for coarse cereals, with maize and bajra seeing increased offtake from poultry and cattle-feed users. This dynamic improves the relative pricing power of millet within the domestic ration mix, particularly where pearl millet is interchangeable with maize or sorghum in low-cost feed formulas.

On the supply side, new-season rice arrivals are building, weighing on certain basmati-related lines and freeing some storage space and working capital at mill level. That, combined with active dal-mill buying in pulses such as arhar, moong and chana, suggests a generally busy kharif marketing season, but without clear evidence of surplus pressure on millet so far.

Outside India, exportable surpluses from Ukraine and China remain available and competitively priced. Ukrainian seed and kernel offers from Odesa are stable in euro terms over the last weeks, while Chinese FOB millet kernel prices around EUR 0.85–0.93/kg show only modest volatility month-on-month.  This combination points to a well-supplied, but not oversupplied, international millet market.

Weather & Macro Backdrop

India’s 2026 southwest monsoon to date has delivered below-normal rainfall, with June–August precipitation estimated around 86% of the long-period average and full-season rainfall projected to remain clearly deficient.  This raises yield and quality risks for rainfed coarse cereals, including millet, in drier pockets of Rajasthan and neighboring states.

While it is too early to quantify final output losses, the combination of firmer mandi prices in some markets and the rainfall deficit suggests downside risks to 2026/27 millet production if September showers underperform forecasts. For now, the market appears to be pricing in a mildly tighter balance rather than a severe shortfall.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Feed-led strength in coarse grains: Higher poultry and cattle-feed demand is pulling maize and bajra prices higher in New Delhi, implicitly supporting millet valuations through cross-commodity substitution.
• Pressure from rice arrivals: New 1509 steam rice values are easing as fresh-crop volumes rise, diverting some consumer attention from premium cereals and capping overall foodgrain inflation in the short term.
• Stable export benchmarks: Ukrainian and Chinese millet export offers show minimal week-on-week movement in EUR, indicating balanced fundamentals rather than speculative tightness.
• Pulse market firmness: Strength in arhar, moong and chana on active dal-mill buying underscores generally robust foodgrain demand, but without clear evidence of demand rationing yet.

Trading Outlook (Next 2–4 Weeks)

• For importers/feed buyers: Consider staggered coverage on millet requirements, as current EUR-denominated offers from Ukraine and China look fair relative to firmer maize and bajra values. Avoid excessive front-loading, but secure a base layer of volumes.
• For producers/exporters: Maintain offer discipline; with monsoon-related yield risk and strong feed demand, there is limited need for aggressive discounting unless local currency strengthens sharply or logistics costs fall.
• For traders: Watch Indian mandi trends in bajra and maize as key leading indicators. Any acceleration in their rally could spill over into higher millet replacement demand and firmer export basis levels.

3-Day Price Indication (Directional, in EUR)

• Ukraine, Odesa (FCA/FOB millet seed & kernels): Largely stable in EUR; mild upside bias if Black Sea freight or maize prices firm further.
• China, Beijing (FOB kernels): Stable to slightly firmer, especially for high-purity and organic lots, reflecting steady Asian demand.
• India domestic mandis (bajra/pearl millet proxy): Sideways to mildly higher as feed demand stays strong and monsoon uncertainty persists.