Muted Demand Weighs on Chickpeas as Indian Buyers Stay Cautious

Weak demand from Indian dal and besan mills is keeping chickpeas (chana) under pressure, even as export offers remain broadly steady and edible oils trade firmer. The market is demand‑driven, with buyers avoiding large positions amid retail uncertainty. India’s spot chana market is characterised by cautious mill buying and slow retail offtake, which limits any upside despite earlier firmness in pulses. Export indications from New Delhi and Mexico in early June suggest largely sideways values in recent days, while domestic mandi data confirm a softer tone for chana relative to other pulses. Weather and monsoon risks are on the radar but, for now, short‑term price direction hinges mainly on the pace of demand recovery from processors.

Prices & Recent Moves

In New Delhi, chana prices are described as weak, with mills buying only hand-to-mouth due to sluggish dal and besan demand. Spot mandi indications for Kabuli chickpeas in Gujarat around 6 June show moderate levels and no sharp upside, consistent with a soft but not collapsing market.

Export offers (FOB, converted to EUR at ~1 USD = 0.93 EUR) for Indian chickpeas from New Delhi in early June cluster roughly between EUR 0.70–0.90/kg depending on calibre and terms, while Mexican origins sit higher near EUR 0.80–1.05/kg. The very small day‑to‑day changes over the last two weeks underline a sideways to slightly easier trend rather than a strong rally.

Supply & Demand

Domestically in India, arrivals of the 2026 rabi pulse crop have slowed as much of the crop has already moved to government agencies, yet private demand from mills remains muted. The author-reported situation in New Delhi mirrors this: mills in chana and arhar are buying cautiously, with urad comparatively better balanced. This keeps chana as the weak leg within the pulse complex.

On the consumption side, dal and besan usage is seasonally softer, and retail turnover is described as uncertain, discouraging mills from accumulating stocks. Online retail price lists for chana dal products in India as of 7 June show no broad-based spike, supporting the picture of contained consumer-side inflation for chickpea products. Export demand for Indian chickpeas remains present, particularly from the Middle East and North Africa, but is not strong enough to offset sluggish domestic buying.

Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamentally, the market is transitioning from a supply-led phase (post-harvest arrivals) to a demand-led phase. Traders expect pulses, including chana, to remain driven by end-use demand, while edible oils show relative firmness on stronger global cues. The relative stability of export offers despite weaker domestic spot sentiment suggests comfortable but not burdensome chickpea availability.

Weather risk is building in the background. The 2026 southwest monsoon is widely expected to be below normal, with forecasts around 90–92% of the long-period average. The monsoon has already reached Kerala and parts of southern and northeastern India, but models hint at slower progress inland and potential dry air intrusions into north and central India in mid-June. While chickpeas are mostly a rabi crop, a weak monsoon could influence overall pulse sentiment and farmer planting decisions later in the year.

Short-Term Outlook

For the next few weeks, the key driver for chickpeas will be the pace of buying from dal and besan mills rather than supply shocks. As long as processors continue to purchase cautiously and retail demand stays soft, chana prices in India are likely to remain under mild downward pressure or move sideways. Any sudden pickup in festival-related demand or government market interventions could provide temporary support.

Weather and monsoon developments warrant monitoring for their second-half‑year impact, but they are unlikely to alter chickpea fundamentals in June. By contrast, firmness in edible oils could keep consumers somewhat price‑sensitive on pulses, further capping upside. Overall, the market appears moderately supplied with a weak demand pulse, arguing against aggressive near-term price gains.

Trading Outlook

• Importers / Buyers: Consider staggered purchases in the near term, as weak mill demand and soft spot sentiment in India favour buyer-friendly prices. Avoid over-stocking ahead of clearer indications on monsoon performance and demand recovery.
• Exporters (India, Mexico): Maintain competitive offers but be prepared for discount requests from price‑sensitive markets. With Indian domestic demand subdued, selectively using export channels to manage inventories remains attractive.
• Processors / Dal mills: Hand-to-mouth buying remains justified until retail turnover improves. However, monitor any signs of tightening in Kabuli grades, where export parity and higher Mexican prices can lend some support.

3‑Day Directional View (Indicative)

• India, New Delhi (ex‑warehouse, EUR-equivalent): Sideways to slightly softer; weak dal/besan demand dominates sentiment.
• India, Gujarat mandis (Kabuli chickpeas): Mostly steady; no strong catalysts for a sharp move expected over the next three days.
• Mexico, FOB offers: Stable; limited fresh news on supply or demand suggests flat pricing in the very short term.