Kabuli Chickpeas: India Softens, Mexico Firms as Monsoon Lags
Late June 2026 chickpea market: Indian FOB New Delhi eases slightly, Mexican Kabuli firmer. Impact of weak monsoon, export demand and 3‑day price outlook.
Prices
- India FOB New Delhi Kabuli prices have eased marginally since mid‑June after a sharp local mandi spike earlier in the month, when Kabuli chana jumped by over 20% in one day on low arrivals and active buying.
- Mexico’s Kabuli export corridor (mainly Sinaloa) is now in its core June–September shipping phase, and firm Mediterranean demand for 8–10 mm calibres is underpinning a slow but steady uptick in offers.
Supply & Demand
India remains the dominant global chickpea producer and a key Kabuli exporter, but the domestic balance sheet is tight enough that desi chickpea markets still depend structurally on imports. This limits the scope for aggressive Kabuli export selling when internal prices firm.
The 2026 southwest monsoon has so far been India’s driest June in more than a century, with rainfall about one‑third below normal and a 41% deficit reported nationally as of 26 June. This has slowed kharif sowing in several pulse-growing regions and is keeping pulse traders wary of forward selling despite short-term price softness.
In Mexico, Kabuli chickpea production is highly export-oriented, dominated by large-calibre Kabuli types harvested mainly in April–May and shipped June–September via Pacific ports. Export demand from Spain, Italy, Algeria and Turkey remains the primary price driver, with current indications pointing to steady off-take into the Mediterranean.
Weather & Crop Conditions
For chickpea, India’s critical weather period is the rabi season (sown mainly in October–November). However, the current monsoon shortfall matters for soil moisture recharge and farmer sentiment. June 2026 has been notably dry, with heat and humidity persisting over North India—including Delhi and key pulse states—while heavier rains have been concentrated over the northeast and west coast.
Recent forecasts point to a gradual revival and inward progress of the southwest monsoon over central India in the coming days, but meaningful relief for northern pulse belts is expected only in early July. Community monitoring shows rains beginning to advance into Maharashtra, Telangana and adjoining regions after a two‑week stall, supporting some improvement in moisture conditions but not yet fully normalising deficits.
For Mexico’s Kabuli crop, the main 2026 harvest is largely complete, so near‑term weather in key producing areas (e.g. Sinaloa) is less market‑critical than logistics and export demand. The June–September shipping window is proceeding under mostly typical seasonal conditions, with no major weather-related export disruptions reported in the last few days.
Fundamentals & Market Drivers
- India – post-rally consolidation: After an early-June spike in Kabuli chana mandi prices on tight arrivals and weather noise, spot levels in Delhi have stabilised and export FOBs have nudged lower week-on-week. The late and weak monsoon keeps a risk premium in pulses overall, but near-term chickpea trade is cautious.
- Structural pulses tightness: Analytical work on India’s desi chickpea balance highlights ongoing dependence on imports even after large crops, which constrains how far Kabuli exports can expand without tightening domestic availability. This underpins a floor to export discounts versus domestic prices.
- Mexico – export-led strength: With over 95% of Mexican chickpeas being Kabuli types ideally suited for Mediterranean and North African markets, the current export campaign is lifting prices, especially for 8–10 mm calibres. As June advances, buyers often secure coverage for Q3 shipments, reinforcing firm offers out of Mexico.
Trading Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)
- Importers (Mediterranean, Middle East): Indian FOB Kabuli values have softened slightly and currently offer a small price advantage over Mexican 12 mm, but weather and structural tightness in India argue against waiting for significantly cheaper levels. Consider layering purchases from both origins, prioritising Mexico for larger calibres and India for cost-sensitive segments.
- Indian exporters: With monsoon uncertainty still high and domestic pulses relatively tight, avoid over-committing forward tonnage at deep discounts. Focus on nearby shipments and maintain price clauses that allow modest upward adjustment if internal prices react to monsoon news.
- Mexican shippers: Current firm demand and limited competition in larger calibres support asking prices. However, buyers remain price-sensitive; structured offers (e.g. mixed calibre programs, flexible shipment windows) can capture the premium without over-extending on flat price risk.
3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Directional)
- India – New Delhi FOB (all Kabuli calibres): Largely sideways to slightly firm over the next 3 days (27–29 June), with heat, weak monsoon progress in the north and thin arrivals offset by cautious export demand.
- India – Interior markets (North/Central pulse belts): Local mandi prices likely to trade steady with a firm bias, as traders monitor monsoon updates and hold back major selling until rainfall improves.
- Mexico – Mexico City / Pacific ports FOB: Export offers expected to remain firm to modestly higher for 8–12 mm Kabuli over the next 3 days, supported by seasonal shipping demand and limited large-calibre supply.