Mixed Signals in Chickpea: India Softens, Mexico Firms on Large Kabuli Sizes

Indian and Mexican chickpea prices are diverging, with New Delhi offers easing slightly while Mexico City values for large kabuli sizes edge higher. Weather‑driven uncertainty around India’s delayed monsoon and tight global availability of premium Mexican kabuli chickpeas are setting up a finely balanced short‑term outlook. In India, export quotations for most kabuli grades are fractionally lower week‑on‑week, reflecting improved near‑term availability and cautious export demand, even as domestic mandi prices remain well supported. In Mexico, by contrast, export indications for 12 mm kabuli are firming, underpinned by strong demand for large sizes and limited replacement options. The late and still uneven progress of the Indian monsoon raises a mild upside risk for pulses prices if kharif sowing for chickpea‑substitute pulses is further disrupted, while generally favourable short‑term weather in Mexican chickpea regions is price‑neutral.

Prices

All prices converted at an indicative 1 USD = 0.93 EUR for comparison.

Indian domestic mandi prices for kabuli chickpeas in key producing states such as Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat are trading roughly around the equivalent of 0.60–0.70 EUR/kg at the farm gate, suggesting that export offers still carry a modest premium above inland wholesale levels.

Supply & Demand Drivers (IN, MX)

India

• The 2026 southwest monsoon started late and remains uneven, with all‑India June rainfall reported 40–43% below average so far, prompting government concern over kharif crops and contingency planning for low‑rainfall districts.
• Recent updates indicate a revival of monsoon activity and heavy rain alerts on the west coast and northeast, but central and northwestern pulse belts are still catching up, keeping some weather risk priced into pulses generally.
• Analysts highlight that India’s desi chickpea balance sheet remains structurally tight and dependent on stocks and imports, indirectly supporting kabuli values by constraining substitution on the domestic side.

Mexico

• Mexico remains a key supplier of large‑size kabuli chickpeas; recent export indications from Mexican shippers show firm pricing on FOB terms, consistent with the observed uptick in our Mexico City offers for 12 mm and small calibres.
• Broader dry bean price benchmarks in Mexico have softened modestly year‑on‑year, but kabuli chickpeas are behaving differently, benefiting from specific export demand in the Mediterranean and Middle East for large calibres.

Weather Outlook (Next 3–5 Days)

India (key kabuli belts: MP, Rajasthan, Gujarat)

• IMD guidance and recent reports point to a revived monsoon with widespread showers along the west coast and increasing coverage inland, but cumulative deficits remain significant, and officials still warn about risks to kharif crops if rains falter again.
• For chickpea, which is mainly a rabi crop, immediate yield risk is limited; however, poor kharif pulse sowing could later tighten the overall pulses complex and indirectly support kabuli prices if the rainfall deficit persists into July.

Mexico (northwest chickpea areas: Sonora, Sinaloa)

• No major weather disruptions are reported for the main Mexican chickpea‑growing states over the coming days; seasonal conditions remain broadly favourable, implying neutral short‑term yield and quality risk for existing stocks and any late‑season fieldwork.
• With weather benign, Mexican export price strength is currently more a function of demand and limited large‑size availability than of immediate production threats.

Fundamentals & Market Sentiment

• India: Slight week‑on‑week FOB softening across all kabuli grades signals cautious export buying and comfortable near‑term availability. Domestic spot rates in some mandis have eased from earlier peaks but remain historically elevated, reflecting structural tightness in pulses and uncertainty around government stock policy.
• Mexico: Gradual appreciation of FOB quotations for 12 mm and small sizes in Mexico City, together with firm private export offers, suggest that buyers seeking large kabuli are competing for limited lots as other exporters (e.g., Russia, Mediterranean origins) set the world price floor.
• Macro backdrop: Expectations of a weaker‑than‑normal Indian monsoon (IMD seasonal forecast at ~90% of the long‑period average due to El Niño) support a mildly bullish tone across the global pulses complex, although immediate chickpea supplies from the last harvest still cap near‑term rallies.

Trading Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)

• Importers (Mediterranean / Middle East): Consider selectively covering near‑term needs in Mexican 12 mm kabuli at current EUR‑equivalent levels; upside risk remains if Indian monsoon concerns re‑intensify or if competing origins lift offer ideas further.
• Indian exporters: With FOB New Delhi values drifting lower, competitive sales in mid‑sizes (44–48 count) look feasible, but aggressive forward selling is not advised until monsoon performance in central India is clearer.
• Mexican producers/shippers: Maintain a firm offer stance for large calibres; absent weather shocks, the market appears willing to absorb gradual price increases, especially from quality‑conscious buyers.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Direction, EUR basis)