New Large Cardamom Crop Caps Upside as Delhi FOB Firms Slightly

New large cardamom arrivals from India and Nepal are starting to weigh on the market, limiting the potential for any sustained price rally despite still-firm export quotations in New Delhi. A good first crop in both Assam and Nepal is beginning to reach the market, softening wholesale and auction prices at origin as traders anticipate higher availability in the coming weeks. At the same time, Indian large cardamom exports have slowed year‑on‑year, undercutting bullish sentiment. FOB New Delhi quotations for green cardamom remain slightly firmer than late August levels, but the combination of improving supply and weaker export performance argues for a broadly range‑bound to mildly softer market tone into the new season.

Prices

FOB New Delhi prices for Indian green cardamom are modestly higher versus late August despite rising new‑crop pressure. Organic whole green 6.0–6.5 mm is quoted at EUR 17.5/FOB New Delhi, with organic 7.5–8 mm at EUR 19.2/FOB. Conventional 7.5 mm is indicated at EUR 26.5/FOB, while larger 8 mm grade trades around EUR 28.4/FOB. Cardamom powder (organic) stands at EUR 25.0/FOB New Delhi as of 19 September 2026, slightly above early‑month levels.

These firmer export quotes contrast with easing wholesale and auction prices for large cardamom at origin in eastern India, where recent auctions in Singtam and Siliguri showed large cardamom (Badadana) in the INR 1,375–1,450/kg range. This divergence reflects exporter attempts to defend margins as they face expectations of heavier supplies from both India and Nepal.

Supply & Demand

New‑season supplies from Assam and Nepal are beginning to enter the market, with the first crop in both origins described as good. Arrivals from Nepal are still limited but expected to increase in the coming weeks, adding to availability and intensifying competition with Indian material. Nepal‑origin large cardamom remains a critical competitive factor for Indian exporters, especially on price‑sensitive regional demand.

On the demand side, Indian large cardamom exports have weakened. In the first two months of FY 2026‑27, shipments reached around 173 tonnes, down from 215 tonnes in the same period a year earlier, with export earnings also lower year‑on‑year. This softer export performance suggests importers have already built some cover at earlier high price levels or are watching how new‑crop prices develop before extending positions.

Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamentals currently favour an easing bias. A good crop outlook in both India and Nepal, together with rising auction arrivals in eastern Himalayan markets, points to a comfortable supply situation. Spices Board India auction data for large cardamom shows steady flows and prices that have edged lower from earlier seasonal peaks, confirming a shift from tightness toward balance.

Weather across key large‑cardamom areas in Sikkim, northern West Bengal and eastern Nepal has generally been seasonally normal in recent weeks, with no major reports of crop damage. Combined with earlier farmer and agency reports of improved crop prospects in Nepal, this reinforces expectations of solid regional output for the 2026‑27 marketing year.

Outlook & Trading Recommendations

Given the good first‑crop reports from India and Nepal and the weaker start to India’s export campaign, a sustained rally in large cardamom prices appears unlikely in the near term. The market is instead poised for a phase of consolidation, where higher arrivals gradually cap upside even if FOB quotes in Delhi remain relatively resilient in the short run.

• Importers/industrial buyers: Consider scaling in coverage on price dips during the main arrival window, but avoid aggressive front‑loading as supply is expected to remain comfortable.
• Exporters: Use current firm FOB levels to lock in forward sales where possible, but be prepared for increased competition from Nepalese origin and potential buyer resistance at higher offer levels.
• Producers/traders at origin: Manage sales in tranches rather than holding for a major rally; higher arrivals and softer export performance argue against strong near‑term price appreciation.

3‑Day Directional View (Key Hubs)

• New Delhi FOB (green cardamom, India): Stable to slightly softer as export demand meets rising new‑crop supply.
• Eastern India auctions (large cardamom): Mild downward bias with further arrivals expected in Singtam, Gangtok and Siliguri.
• Nepal–India border trade: Increasing Nepalese flows likely to maintain a broadly pressure‑creating backdrop for Indian prices.