The 2026 chia campaign in Paraguay has started with very limited area sown but good early crop conditions, while global demand continues to grow and EU prices remain firm, keeping an overall mildly bullish tone. With around 80% of the Paraguayan area still to be planted in the coming weeks, weather and operational execution will be decisive for final supply.
Paraguay is entering the main sowing window under close field monitoring and strengthened local presence of international buyers. Despite only under 5% of the expected area being planted so far, emergence and early crop development look homogeneous and healthy. At the same time, global chia demand is projected to rise further in 2026, with Paraguay expected to retain its dominant export position. This combination of early‑stage production uncertainty and robust demand provides limited downside for prices in the near term.
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📈 Prices
Near-term EU prices for chia remain stable to firm, reflecting tight nearby availability and uncertainty around the 2026 Paraguayan harvest. Recent offers for FCA Dordrecht show conventional black chia from Paraguay trading around the low EUR 3.00s/kg, while organic black chia from East Africa is positioned in the high EUR 3.00s/kg, indicating a modest organic premium and broadly steady levels compared with mid-March.
| Product | Origin | Location / Terms | Latest Price (EUR/kg) | 1–3 week change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chia seed, black, conventional | Paraguay | Dordrecht, NL (FCA) | 3.07 | Flat vs. early March |
| Chia seeds, black, organic 99.95% | Uganda | Dordrecht, NL (FCA) | 3.85 | Broadly stable |
Given Paraguay’s outsized market share and the very early stage of the 2026 campaign, spot and nearby contracts are likely to remain underpinned. Buyers with just-in-time strategies face limited relief from current price levels until there is clearer visibility on sown area and stand establishment in April.
🌍 Supply & Demand
The new production cycle in Paraguay is just beginning. Sowing started in February in the eastern regions, where farmers traditionally plant earlier to reduce frost risk later in the season. Additional producers have joined sowing in recent weeks, but the planted area is still under 5% of the expected total, concentrated in these early zones. Despite the slow statistical progress, field observations indicate even germination and a positive early development of stands, suggesting a healthy campaign start.
The core sowing window lies immediately ahead. Historically, around 80% of Paraguay’s chia area is sown between the second half of March and the first half of April, with a smaller share planted later depending on field access and operational decisions. As this main window progresses, the picture on total area and potential output will become much clearer. For now, production potential remains highly elastic to decisions made over the next 2–3 weeks and to short-term weather conditions.
On the demand side, the global chia market continues to expand at a solid pace. Paraguayan exports reached about 82,000 MT in 2025, up 20.6% year-on-year, driven primarily by strong buying from the US and Europe. For 2026, global chia demand is expected to reach roughly 130,000 MT, confirming a sustained upward trend. With Paraguay still supplying around 75% of global volume and export growth of at least 7% anticipated in the coming months, the country remains the pivotal origin for balancing world supply and demand.
📊 Fundamentals & Local Presence
Fundamentally, the key feature of the 2026 campaign is the combination of structural demand growth with still-unknown effective supply from Paraguay. At this stage, any revision in intended plantings or weather-related setbacks during the main sowing window could quickly tighten the forward balance sheet. Conversely, smooth sowing progress and benign weather would allow Paraguay to sustain its rising export trajectory and accommodate growing off-take from major consuming regions.
Operationally, expanded local presence in Paraguay is becoming a strategic differentiator for supply-chain reliability. The recent establishment of a dedicated local entity in Asunción enables closer cooperation with growers, more intensive field monitoring, and streamlined coordination from procurement through quality control to logistics. This on-the-ground structure improves transparency and responsiveness to in-season developments, supporting both risk management and tailored sourcing programs for industrial buyers.
🌦️ Weather & Campaign Risk Outlook
The campaign is transitioning from early sowing into the critical mass-planting phase just as seasonal temperatures in Paraguay begin to ease from summer peaks towards milder autumn levels. This seasonal shift typically aligns well with chia agronomy, balancing sufficient warmth for rapid establishment with lower heat stress risk later in development. Current regional outlooks for southern South America point to generally favourable growing conditions in the coming weeks, without clear signals of extreme anomalies specifically for Paraguay.
Nonetheless, production risk remains elevated in this phase. Delays due to excessive rainfall, short-lived cold snaps or logistical bottlenecks could compress the effective sowing window in some areas. In addition, any subsequent episodes of frost or prolonged dryness later in the cycle would have outsized impacts given Paraguay’s dominant share of global supply. Until more of the crop is in the ground and well established, these risks will continue to underpin a weather premium in forward values.
📆 Trading Outlook
- Short-term (next 4–6 weeks): With less than 5% of area sown and the main planting window underway, price risks are skewed slightly to the upside. Nearby EU FCA levels around EUR 3.00–3.20/kg for conventional Paraguayan chia appear well supported.
- Procurement strategy: Industrial buyers with coverage gaps for Q3–Q4 2026 should consider layering in partial volumes now, combining fixed-price contracts for core needs with some open or index-linked positions to benefit from any later supply relief.
- Origin diversification: Given Paraguay’s 75% share of global supply, complementing Paraguayan volumes with smaller origins (e.g. East Africa) can reduce single-origin risk, even if at a modest price premium for organic or niche qualities.
- Producer perspective: Local growers benefit from the current demand backdrop and should prioritize timely sowing within the optimal window and strict agronomic management to capture export demand and potential price strength.
📉 3-Day Regional Price Indication (Direction)
- EU (FCA NL, conventional PY chia): Around EUR 3.05–3.10/kg, seen stable to slightly firm amid early-stage supply uncertainty and steady demand.
- EU (FCA NL, organic chia ex East Africa): Around EUR 3.80–3.90/kg, expected stable with limited nearby liquidity and a consistent organic premium.
- FOB Paraguay, bulk export positions: Directionally firm, with bids supported by strong export expectations and the still-emerging 2026 production outlook.
