Soybean prices steady but fragile in India & Ukraine

Soybean cash markets in India and Ukraine are entering mid-March 2026 in a deceptively calm phase. Benchmark international futures in Chicago have been edging higher month‑on‑month on the back of strong crushing margins and large soymeal/oil demand, but spot FOB indications out of Odesa and Indian ports are largely marking time, with only modest week‑on‑week adjustments. In Ukraine, exportable surpluses are being squeezed by strong domestic crushing, which has helped underpin internal bids even as global oilseed prices remain range‑bound. Recent Ukrainian assessments point to GM soybean prices moving very close to non‑GM levels, a sign that nearby supply is tight and buyers are competing more on available volume than on quality differentiation. At the same time, India’s soybean complex is still digesting last season’s price slump, when mandi prices traded sharply below MSP, but current wholesale and retail quotations in New Delhi and Mumbai suggest a firmer tone versus late 2025, especially for higher‑quality, sortex‑clean lots aimed at export or premium domestic channels. Weather in both regions is relatively benign for now: central India’s soybean belt is in its typical dry, pre‑kharif phase, while central Ukraine faces cool but not extreme conditions, with no immediate frost shock on the horizon. This stabilises forward supply expectations, even if it does little to ignite new bullish momentum. Against this backdrop, our latest FOB benchmarks—converted to EUR—show Indian soybeans holding a significant premium over Ukrainian origin and still comfortably above US Gulf levels, while Ukrainian beans remain competitive into the EU and Mediterranean, particularly as EU soybean imports have slowed so far in the 2025/26 season. For traders, the key near‑term theme is a sideways, liquidity‑driven market with narrow but tradable regional spreads rather than a strong directional trend.

Prices & Market Snapshot

CBOT & Reference Futures (converted to EUR)

Latest public CBOT soybean futures data show modest week‑on‑week gains through March 9–13, 2026, with front‑month contracts up around 1–2% as funds cautiously add length on strong US crush and steady export demand. Using an approximate FX rate of 1 EUR = 1.10 USD, current international benchmarks translate into the following indicative levels:

*Contract month approximate; levels inferred from recent Chicago USD/t quotes and converted to EUR.

Key Physical Benchmarks (FOB, converted to EUR)

We convert the provided USD/kg indications using 1 EUR = 1.10 USD.

• Indian FOB New Delhi sortex clean soybeans at 0.97 USD/kg on March 14, 2026 equal about 882 EUR/t and have been flat since March 13, signalling short‑term equilibrium between crushers and exporters.
• Ukrainian FOB Odesa soybeans at 0.34 USD/kg (~309 EUR/t) have shown no change over the last week, in line with reports that domestic crushers are absorbing much of the available supply and limiting free‑on‑board volumes.
• US No.2 FOB offers have firmed from 0.55 to 0.57 USD/kg between March 13–14, equivalent to a 3–4% rise in EUR terms, outpacing both India and Ukraine over the same period.

Supply & Demand Context (IN, UA Focus)

India (IN)

• Retail and wholesale data suggest India’s soybean prices in New Delhi and Mumbai are currently in the range of about 3.72–4.56 USD/kg at wholesale (≈ 3,380–4,140 EUR/t), and 440–540 INR/kg at retail, reflecting strong internal demand and limited export focus.
• Earlier in the 2025/26 season, mandi prices had fallen as much as 39% below MSP for soybeans, but recent firmness indicates that the worst of that price pressure has passed as arrivals slow and crushers rebuild coverage.
• Policy discussions in India have concentrated more on pulses than oilseeds recently, but the general push to curb cheap imports to protect domestic farmers supports a floor under the soybean complex as well.

Ukraine (UA)

• Industry sources indicate that Ukraine’s 2025/26 soybean exports are down as domestic crushing capacity absorbs more beans, increasing soymeal and oil output and tightening exportable stocks.
• GM soybean prices in Ukraine have recently risen to nearly match non‑GM levels (around 435–440 USD/t CPT, or ~395–400 EUR/t), driven by tight farmer selling and logistics disruptions earlier in winter.
• Domestic prices spiked sharply in January 2026 on low farmer offerings and higher sunflower values, with Chicago futures only modestly higher, underlining that the latest support is largely local‑supply driven.
• EU soybean imports for 2025/26 are reported 11% lower year‑on‑year by March 8, 2026, which softens demand for Ukrainian beans into the bloc, but competitive FOB Odesa levels preserve Ukraine’s position into price‑sensitive destinations.

Weather Outlook & Yield Risk

India (Madhya Pradesh & Central Belt)

Major Indian soybean‑growing states (Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan) are currently in the off‑season, with sowing due around June–July. Short‑term weather (next 7 days) for central India points to typical pre‑monsoon conditions: warm to hot daytime temperatures, relatively low humidity and only isolated light showers, with no organised rainfall systems over the core soybean belt. (Synthesis from national meteorological forecasts for central India around March 15, 2026.)

• Yield impact (near term): Neutral. No standing soybean crop; weather mainly affects soil moisture preparation and early planning rather than immediate yield.
• Price impact: Limited in the 3‑day horizon. Market participants will watch early monsoon outlooks in coming weeks rather than day‑to‑day March variability.

Ukraine (Central & Southern Regions incl. Odesa)

For central and southern Ukraine, 7‑day forecasts indicate late‑winter to early‑spring conditions: daytime temperatures oscillating around freezing to mid‑single digits Celsius, with scattered light rain/snow showers and no prolonged severe frost. (Based on composite European and Ukrainian meteorological guidance for mid‑March 2026.)

• Yield impact (near term): Slightly positive to neutral. The absence of deep frost limits winterkill risk on preceding crops and supports timely fieldwork preparation for spring sowing, including soybeans.
• Price impact: Stabilising. With no weather shock, FOB Odesa soybean prices are more likely to track currency moves and international futures than local agronomic stress in the next few days.

Fundamentals & Trade Flows

• Global crush margins: Strong US processing data and elevated soybean oil stocks at NOPA plants (oil inventories at their highest since April 2023) underpin demand for beans even as export sales pace moderates.
• EU import demand: With 2025/26 EU soybean imports down 11% year‑on‑year by early March, competition into the bloc is less intense, marginally capping upside for Black Sea and South American exporters.
• Vegetable oil complex: Soybean oil FOB Argentina around 1,085 USD/t (~986 EUR/t) underscores robust oil values relative to beans, incentivising crushers to maintain high run‑rates and providing indirect support to soybean prices.
• Ukraine internal dynamics: The ongoing shift toward domestic crushing in Ukraine reduces raw bean export availability but increases the country’s leverage in soymeal and oil, which may gradually decouple local bean prices from CBOT benchmarks.

Regional Price Differentials (IN vs UA)

• India’s export‑grade soybeans trade at a substantial premium, reflecting quality (sortex clean), strong domestic consumption and logistics costs from inland locations.
• Ukraine remains one of the cheapest origins globally on a FOB basis, offset to some extent by higher freight and perceived risk premia.

3‑Day Regional Price Outlook (EUR)

Assumptions: No major macro or policy shocks; CBOT futures remain within a ±1.5% band; FX stable around 1 EUR = 1.10 USD. Forecast ranges are indicative for spot FOB / internal parity levels.

Trading Outlook (Price‑Focused)

• India (IN): With FOB New Delhi soybeans holding a large premium to both CBOT and Black Sea, exporters should prioritise short‑dated, back‑to‑back deals and avoid speculative FOB long exposure. Crushers may consider locking in bean coverage on any modest dips towards the lower end of the 3‑day range.
• Ukraine (UA): At ~309 EUR/t FOB, Ukraine remains attractive for buyers able to manage freight and risk. Importers in the EU and Mediterranean may use current levels to secure nearby cargoes, while producers should scale in sales on small rallies, respecting domestic crush demand.
• Spread trades: The wide India‑Ukraine FOB spread argues for continued preference toward Ukrainian or US origin in price‑sensitive tenders. Quality‑sensitive buyers may still pay up for Indian sortex clean, but upside appears capped near term.
• Risk factors (3‑day horizon): The main near‑term risks are FX volatility and any surprise moves in the wider oilseed complex (e.g., sharp changes in rapeseed or palm oil futures), rather than weather or crop news in IN/UA.