Almonds under Geopolitical Pressure: Stable Prices, Rising Food Costs in Poland

Geopolitical tensions and higher freight and energy costs are starting to seep into food prices in Poland, but almond kernel quotations themselves remain broadly stable in March 2026, with a mild softening from recent highs. The main risk is not an immediate price spike in raw almonds, but a gradual cost pass‑through into confectionery, bakery and snack products as logistics and energy markets react to Middle East disruptions. While Easter discussions in Poland focus on eggs, bread, sugar and butter, almonds sit in the background as a key ingredient for marzipan, cakes and premium snacks. Overall food inflation in the Polish "Easter basket" is contained at around 1% year on year, but large differences appear between categories: sharp increases in eggs and bakery, declines in sugar and butter, and slightly cheaper meat and vegetables. This pattern suggests processors have some room to absorb higher nut and freight costs in the short term, but margins in value‑added almond products may tighten if energy markets remain volatile.

Prices & Recent Moves

Almond kernel prices in key export hubs are slightly softer month on month, signalling a broadly balanced global market despite logistics concerns.

Compared with indicative levels published for mid‑2025, current kernel prices for US Carmel and organic Nonpareil around EUR 6.7–9.4/kg and Spanish Marcona in the EUR 6.6–9.0/kg range confirm a sideways-to-soft trend rather than a new bull market.      

Supply & Demand

Global almond supply remains comfortable. The United States still provides just over half of world production, with Spain and Australia as key secondary origins.     Spain has expanded planted area in recent years, with 2025 crops rebounding above the four‑year average, even after localized weather problems.    

On the demand side, Europe absorbs roughly half a million tonnes of almonds annually, with imports (including intra‑EU flows) around 472 thousand tonnes and consumption peaking at 522 thousand tonnes in 2023.     Poland is one of the fastest‑growing importers, with almond inflows rising about 10% per year between 2020 and 2024, reaching around 12.5 thousand tonnes.     This underpins structural growth in demand for premium confectionery and healthy snacks, even if short‑term nut mixture imports have recently softened.    

Fundamentals & Geopolitics

For Polish consumers in March 2026, the most visible food price changes are driven by other components of the Easter table: eggs and bakery products are up due to disease‑related supply shocks and higher energy and grain costs, while sugar and butter are markedly cheaper on the back of strong global production and prior price corrections. Meat and vegetables are also somewhat cheaper, reflecting improved EU supply and good previous harvests.

This backdrop matters for almonds because processors and retailers manage overall basket margins. Lower costs in sugar and butter give some room to absorb stable or slightly higher almond and freight costs, limiting immediate price hikes in marzipan, chocolate and snack mixes. However, the same Middle East tensions that affect grain, energy and shipping through chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz increase the risk of higher transport and packaging costs being passed into nut‑based products over time.

European trade policy also adds a medium‑term layer of support to non‑US origins. A new 25% retaliatory duty on US almonds from December 2025 is encouraging buyers to pre‑stock Californian kernels and to diversify into Spanish and emerging Mediterranean or Central Asian origins.     For Poland, this could gradually shift the sourcing mix, but given strong Spanish production and competitive pricing, retail shelves should remain well supplied.

Weather Outlook (Key Origins)

• California: The 2025/26 bloom period started in early February with generally favourable conditions, though recent March heatwaves in parts of California raise concerns about water demand and potential stress later in the growing season.    
• Spain: After past seasons with excessive rainfall during bloom, current reports point to a more normal pattern and a still "vibrant" almond sector, despite local yield issues in some provinces.    

Near‑term weather does not yet justify a bullish price re‑rating, but it remains a key watchpoint through spring and early summer, especially if heat and water stress intensify in California.

Trading Outlook & Strategy

• Importers / Roasters (PL & EU): With kernel prices slightly softer and global supply adequate, this is a window to extend cover modestly into Q2–Q3 2026, especially for premium grades (Marcona, organic Nonpareil) that could tighten if freight or tariffs bite.
• Food Manufacturers: Use current relief in sugar and butter costs to lock in almond inputs on dips, smoothing overall raw‑material costs for confectionery and bakery lines ahead of further geopolitical or policy shocks.
• Retailers in Poland: Expect limited consumer resistance to stable almond‑based product prices, as the headline Easter basket inflation is only about 1% year on year. Focus promotions on mixes where cheaper components (sugar, fats, some nuts) can offset steady almond values.

3‑Day Price Direction (EUR, indicative)

• US kernels, FAS Washington D.C. (Carmel, organic Nonpareil): Sideways to slightly soft over the next three trading days, with prices expected to hold in the EUR 6.7–9.4/kg band as supply remains ample.
• Spanish kernels, FOB Madrid (Valencia, Marcona, Guara): Mildly bearish bias; incremental easing of about EUR 0.05/kg is possible as domestic supply stays comfortable and buyers remain price‑sensitive.
• Delivered Central Europe (incl. Poland): CIF values likely to be stable, with any freight cost upticks from Middle East tensions offset by competitive origin offers and a still cautious demand environment.