Turkish Dried Fig FOB Prices Hold Firm as Export Pace Normalises

Turkish dried fig FOB prices in Malatya are broadly stable, with only a modest uptick in selected Lerida grades, and markets are expected to trade sideways in the very short term. Tight but adequate stocks, softening macro export momentum and seasonally cool, largely benign weather in eastern Türkiye argue against sharp moves over the next few days. Dried fig trading out of Türkiye is currently characterised by steady physical demand and cautious buyers watching broader export signals and currency dynamics. While Türkiye remains the dominant global fig supplier, overall exports from the country have lost some momentum in Q1 2026, and the trade deficit has widened, reflecting weaker external demand and tight domestic financial conditions. In Malatya, weather over the coming three days is cool with intermittent showers but no major frost threat for orchards or stored product, echoing the stable pattern also seen in the nearby dried apricot market. Against this backdrop, dried fig prices are likely to remain range‑bound in the very near term, with only limited room for upside until clearer signals emerge on next season’s crop.

Prices

FOB Malatya prices for Turkish conventional dried figs (origin TR) are currently assessed in a narrow range. Converting prevailing USD quotes to EUR using recent FX levels, No. 7 Lerida and natural grades cluster around EUR 7.0–7.3/kg, while top Lerida sizes (No. 1–2) are indicated around EUR 10.1–10.5/kg. Mid‑range natural figs (No. 4–5) trade near EUR 7.9–8.3/kg FOB. The price curve remains well structured by calibre, and week‑on‑week moves are limited to roughly EUR 0.05–0.10/kg, mainly in the higher Lerida grades.

Supply & Demand

Türkiye retains its position as the leading global producer and exporter of dried figs, but export growth has slowed alongside a broader cooling in Turkish foreign sales in early 2026. After a smaller 2024/25 crop and firm prices, carry‑in stocks into the current marketing phase are relatively tight but manageable, with exporters rationing sales to maintain price levels. Demand from Europe and the Middle East remains steady but not exuberant, with some substitution into cheaper origins in peripheral markets.

On the macro side, Türkiye’s overall exports have softened and the trade deficit widened through March, while inflation stays elevated and financing costs remain high. This environment keeps exporters focused on cash flow and working‑capital management rather than aggressive forward sales. At the same time, renewed trade initiatives towards regional markets such as Syria could gradually support dried fruit flows, though figs are only a small part of the broader agricultural export basket.

Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamentally, the dried fig balance sheet remains relatively tight after the reduced 2024/25 Turkish crop and firm export programme, leaving little room for downside without confirmation of a larger new crop. However, with the new harvest still months away, short‑term pricing is driven more by nearby demand and currency than by crop‑size speculation. The parallel dried apricot market in Malatya is reported stable to slightly firm, reinforcing a general picture of steady dried fruit values rather than sharp corrections.

Weather for Malatya over the next three days (9–11 April) is forecast to be cool, partly cloudy and occasionally showery, with daytime highs around 8–12°C and overnight lows near 3–4°C. These conditions pose minimal immediate risk to orchards and warehouse stocks, and no frost events are currently expected. In the absence of weather shocks, nearby availability and logistics remain the key drivers, and no significant disruptions are reported at present for eastern Türkiye’s dried fruit corridor.

Trading Outlook (Next 3–7 Days)

• Exporters: Maintain offer discipline on higher Lerida grades; limited nearby supply and firm replacement costs justify holding offers close to current levels, with only small discounts for volume business.
• Importers/Packers: Use current sideways conditions to cover short‑term needs; consider staggered purchases across grades rather than waiting for meaningful downside that is unlikely without macro or crop shocks.
• Speculative/Trading houses: Focus on spreads between natural and Lerida qualities and between figs and competing dried fruits; with apricot and hazelnut markets also broadly stable, relative value trades may offer more opportunity than outright price bets.

3‑Day Price Indication (Region TR)

Given stable local conditions in Malatya and no major new fundamental news, dried fig FOB prices in Türkiye are expected to remain broadly unchanged over the next three days:

• Natural figs (Malatya, FOB): Sideways bias within ±EUR 0.05/kg of current quotes across No. 7–1 sizes.
• Lerida figs (Malatya, FOB): Sideways to slightly firm, particularly in No. 1–2, but moves likely capped within ±EUR 0.10/kg absent fresh demand surges.
• Relative to other dried fruits: Price relationships versus Turkish dried apricots and hazelnuts are expected to stay broadly stable, supporting range‑bound fig values in region TR.