Turkish Dried Fig Prices Hold Steady as Exporters Turn Cautious

Turkish dried fig prices in Malatya are broadly stable in late May, with no week‑on‑week changes across main natural and Lerida size categories in EUR terms. Exporters, however, have turned more cautious as repeated quality rejections in Europe and firm logistics costs temper aggressive forward sales. Short‑term price risk is sideways to mildly supportive as stocks are well covered but exporters seek to protect margins. The Turkish dried fruit complex remains fundamentally strong, supported by solid Q1 dried fruit exports and resilient EU demand. Yet the latest industry commentary signals that dried fig exporters are wary of overcommitting on volume due to recent EU border returns for aflatoxin and ochratoxin, which raise reputational and compliance risks.  Meanwhile, near-ideal late‑May weather in the Aegean growing belt underpins fig tree development, keeping new‑crop risk limited for now. For buyers, this translates into a calm but firm market where dips remain shallow and short‑lived.

Prices

FOB Malatya quotations for Turkish dried figs (conventional, origin TR) are unchanged compared with the previous update on 28 May 2026. Natural types are trading roughly between EUR 7.2–9.1/kg, while Lerida types range around EUR 5.8–9.2/kg, depending on size and quality. The price curve remains steep towards larger sizes, reflecting tight availability of premium calibres.

Compared with mid‑May, levels are effectively flat, confirming that the sharp Lerida price adjustment earlier in the month has now consolidated. External wholesale indications in Europe for dried figs, such as Polish markets around EUR 6.2–8.4/kg, also point to a broadly stable international price environment without strong upward or downward momentum.  

Supply & Demand

Turkey remains the dominant global dried fig supplier, and dried fruits overall continue to perform strongly in export statistics. In Q1 2026, Turkish dried fruit and products exports reached about USD 404 million to 120 countries, underlining healthy demand for raisins, figs and apricots in key markets such as the EU. This broad demand backdrop helps underpin price stability even as individual product flows adjust.

Recent market commentary highlights a more cautious stance among dried fig exporters. Numerous shipments have reportedly been rejected at EU borders due to elevated aflatoxin and ochratoxin levels this season, prompting exporters to tighten quality controls and be more selective with buyers and destinations. This caution limits the willingness to discount aggressively, supporting current price levels despite comfortable stocks.

Weather & New‑Crop Outlook (TR)

Weather in the core Aegean fig belt is currently benign. Aydın is forecast to see mostly sunny, warm conditions over 29–31 May, with daytime highs around 29–31°C and mild nights. İzmir shows a similar pattern of plentiful sunshine and highs near 29–30°C. These conditions are favourable for fig tree growth and fruit set, with no immediate stress from heat or excessive rainfall.

Further inland, Malatya is cooler but dry and sunny, with highs mostly in the 20–23°C range over the same period. Overall, the 3‑day outlook suggests low weather‑related risk for the current phenological stage. The absence of adverse events (hail, heavy rains, prolonged cold) reduces near‑term supply anxiety and contributes to the present sideways price pattern.

Market Drivers

• Quality issues in EU: Reports of increased EU rejections for mycotoxins in Turkish dried figs raise compliance costs and may temporarily cap export volumes to the strictest markets, but also discourage price undercutting.
• Solid dried fruit export base: Strong Q1 performance across the Turkish dried fruit basket indicates resilient underlying demand, especially from Europe, providing support to fig prices even during a quiet trading window.
• Logistics and fuel: International logistics costs remain elevated compared with earlier in the year, as evidenced by higher diesel prices and freight commentary in Europe, which exporters try to pass through into FOB offers rather than cutting prices.
• Macro Turkish export momentum: Turkey’s broader export sector has just posted record daily and strong monthly export figures, signaling a competitive but capacity‑constrained environment in which high‑value products like dried figs can maintain firm prices.

Trading Outlook

• Short‑term (next 1–2 weeks): Bias is for a sideways to mildly firm market in EUR terms. With stable demand and exporter caution, any downside seems limited to small tactical discounts on less‑favoured sizes or qualities.
• Buyers/importers: Consider covering nearby Q3 needs on current levels, especially for larger natural and Lerida calibres where availability is structurally tighter. Focus on suppliers with proven mycotoxin control given the recent EU rejection trend.
• Exporters/packers: Maintain disciplined offers, emphasising quality certification and traceability to justify premiums. Avoid overcommitting new‑crop volumes until weather and regulatory risks for 2026/27 are clearer.
• Speculative participants: The absence of a clear bearish catalyst, combined with limited liquidity, argues against short positions; better risk‑reward lies in buying minor dips ahead of the new‑crop information window.

3‑Day Price Direction (TR, FOB Malatya, EUR)

Given favourable weather in Aydın/İzmir and no fresh macro or regulatory shocks, Turkish dried fig prices are expected to remain broadly unchanged over the next three days, with only limited upside risk on premium sizes if nearby EU demand picks up.