Turkish Dried Figs: Strong Crop Prospects Keep Prices Steady for Now

Pollination has finished successfully and warm, dry conditions in western Turkey are supporting an excellent fruit set, pointing to a potentially strong 2026/27 dried figs season. Prices for Turkish dried figs in EUR are currently stable, with the market waiting for the mid-August harvest and price announcements to set the new season’s direction. Exporters are entering this season in a better agronomic situation than last year, when problems weighed on volumes and quality. Early harvesting has already started in parts of Aydın, and first-half 2026 export data confirm robust international demand: dried figs ranked second after raisins with an export value of about USD 159 million. For now, market participants are operating in a narrow price range, but expectations of a good crop are likely to cap upside until concrete harvest figures are known.

Prices

FOB offers from Turkey (Malatya, conventional dried figs, updated 8 July 2026) are broadly unchanged compared with late June, indicating a stable pre‑harvest market. The main movement in recent weeks has been internal rebalancing between Lerida calibers rather than a trend shift across the complex.

Organic figs in İzmir command a premium, with Lerida No. 4 around 14.95 EUR/kg and specialty organic types such as Protoben and Mini near or above 15–16 EUR/kg. Spanish organic figs (Spanish Gold, FOB Madrid) trade around 10.8 EUR/kg, positioning Turkish organic product at the higher end of the European offer range.

Supply & Demand

Pollination in the main Turkish fig orchards was fully completed by the last week of June, and subsequent warm, dry weather has supported early fruit development. Producers expect a good harvest this year, a clear contrast to last season when various problems constrained supply and complicated exporters’ operations.

Dried figs have performed strongly in Turkey’s export basket in the first six months of 2026, ranking second after raisins with an export value of about USD 158.98 million. This underlines continuing solid global demand, particularly from Europe and the Middle East, and suggests that the market should be able to absorb a larger Turkish crop, though at potentially lower price levels if volumes surprise to the upside.

Weather & Crop Conditions

Key growing areas around Aydın are currently experiencing very warm, sunny and dry conditions, with daytime highs in early July around 34–38°C and cool to warm nights. Such a pattern is broadly supportive for both on-tree ripening and subsequent drying, provided that heat extremes and water stress remain manageable for the orchards.

The main weather risk now is a sudden shift to humid or rainy conditions during the drying phase, which could increase quality losses and tighten availability of higher grades. At this stage, however, the outlook points to a generally favorable season for dried figs, reinforcing expectations of a good crop and stable to slightly softer price bias into harvest.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Crop prospects: Completed pollination and favorable early development imply above‑average production potential for 2026/27, easing concerns after last year’s problematic season.
• Export performance: Strong first‑half export revenues confirm resilient demand and help underpin baseline price levels, especially for standard qualities.
• Quality and grading: With good weather so far, the share of higher‑grade natural and Lerida figs could increase, which may compress differentials between calibers as supply of premium sizes improves.
• Currency & costs: Domestic costs and TRY/EUR dynamics will influence exporters’ pricing strategy once official new‑season levels are agreed in mid‑August.

Forecast & Trading Outlook

New season price ideas will crystallize in mid‑August, once the actual harvested quantity and quality become clearer. Until then, the market is likely to trade sideways within current EUR ranges, with any rallies capped by the expectation of a good Turkish crop and solid availability across major grades.

• Importers / industrial users: Consider covering near‑term needs but delay large forward purchases until closer to mid‑August, when harvest data and formal price levels are published.
• Exporters / packers: Use current stability to secure sales for standard grades, but keep some volume flexible to respond to potential quality‑driven premiums later in the season.
• Speculative buyers: Upside appears limited in the short term given strong crop expectations; opportunities may emerge only if unexpected adverse weather hits during the drying phase.

3‑Day Price Indication (Directional)

• Turkey – Malatya, FOB dried figs (conventional): Stable in EUR over the next 3 days; bids and offers expected to remain around current 7.6–9.6 EUR/kg band depending on caliber and type.
• Turkey – İzmir, FOB organic figs: Stable to slightly soft as supply expectations improve; range roughly 9.6–16.0 EUR/kg by type.
• EU (import parity, dried figs): Largely steady, tracking Turkish FOB levels and freight, with buyers mostly in wait‑and‑see mode ahead of new season pricing.