Turkish Dried Figs Hold Steady as Heat Builds in Aegean Orchards

Turkish dried fig export prices are largely flat in early July, with natural Malatya grades unchanged and some Lerida sizes showing modest two‑way adjustments. Tight but comfortable global supply and seasonally quiet demand keep the market in balance, while hot, stable weather in the Aegean fig belt supports crop development without fresh stress signals. Export activity remains focused on Aydın–İzmir processors supplying Sarılop PGI figs, with Turkey still dominating world dried fig trade. Recent industry data confirm a robust 2025/26 global supply outlook, led by higher Turkish production, while some exporters remain cautious towards the EU due to stringent quality controls. In Malatya, traders are busy with apricots rather than figs, but the broader dried-fruit logistics and labour environment is supportive. With no immediate weather or policy shocks, short‑term fig pricing looks range‑bound, and buyers can plan nearby coverage on a steady basis.

Prices

All prices below are indicative FOB, converted at ~0.92 EUR/USD for early July 2026. They reflect offers from Turkish origins (Malatya, İzmir) and Spain.

Domestic Turkish wholesale figs (fresh and dried blended index) are quoted around EUR 5.30/kg equivalent in June, up roughly 19% year‑on‑year, underlining a firm but not spiking cost base for exporters.

Supply & Demand

Turkey remains the key global supplier, accounting for around two‑thirds of world dried fig export volume and the vast majority of premium Sarılop/Calimyrna trade, with annual dried fig output around 75,000–85,000 tonnes from the Aydın–İzmir belt alone. Recent international industry projections put Turkish dried fig production in 2025/26 near 70,000 tonnes, up from 60,000 tonnes in 2024/25, lifting total national supply to about 75,000 tonnes.

Global dried fig supply for 2025/26 is forecast around 156,000 tonnes, up nearly 14% year‑on‑year, with Turkey’s higher crop offsetting slightly weaker Iranian production. So far, there are no reports of major weather‑related damage to Aegean fig orchards; local trade news is dominated instead by Malatya apricot harvest and export preparations, indicating normal seasonal field and logistics conditions in key dried-fruit hubs.

On the demand side, Turkey’s dried fruit exporters report continued strong interest from traditional markets in Europe, the Middle East and North Africa. However, tightened EU controls on aflatoxin and pesticide residues have led some Turkish fig exporters to scale back or redirect shipments to avoid costly rejections, contributing to a modest 4–5% contraction in Turkish dried fig exports to Europe between 2020 and 2024. This regulatory pressure caps upside for EU-bound prices but also encourages diversification into less stringent destinations.

Fundamentals & Weather

Industry data for 2025/26 show Turkey entering the new marketing year with relatively low beginning stocks of about 5,000 tonnes but ending stocks projected to rebuild to around 10,000 tonnes, implying a comfortable but not burdensome carryover. This stock trajectory supports the current sideways price pattern: there is no immediate shortage, yet exporters are not under pressure to liquidate inventory ahead of the next crop.

Weather in the key fig regions is supportive. Malatya is currently hot and dry, with maximum temperatures near 35–36°C and clear skies expected over the next three days. In the Aydın fig belt, which supplies most Sarılop PGI figs, forecasts call for very warm, sunny conditions with highs around 36–37°C through 4 July, again with no rainfall. These patterns favour fruit ripening and drying potential but may accelerate tree stress if prolonged; for now, no official concerns have been raised.

Structural issues remain in the background: dried fig exporters continue to face strict EU border checks for aflatoxin, mould and pesticide residues, with some producers opting to limit EU exposure or invest in additional testing and training. This incentivises higher‑spec lots and adds to quality‑dependent price spreads between top‑end organic or Protoben grades and standard Lerida or industrial material.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

With Turkish figs in a seasonal lull before the new crop and no immediate weather or policy shocks, the market looks range‑bound into the coming week.

• Short‑term buyers (EU, MENA importers): Consider covering nearby Q3 needs now at current FOB İzmir/Malatya levels, especially for organic and higher Protoben/Lerida grades, as firm domestic costs and quality premiums limit downside.
• Industrial users (bakery, snack processors): Use current stability in chopped/industrial figs to secure medium‑term contracts; quality‑compliant lots for EU may tighten if testing uncovers residue issues in early shipments.
• Exporters in Turkey: Maintain selective selling; with comfortable but not heavy projected ending stocks and strong Turkey‑wide dried‑fruit logistics, there is little need for aggressive discounting ahead of clearer new‑crop signals.

3‑Day Price Direction (Region: TR)

• Malatya FOB dried figs (all grades): Sideways over the next 3 days; hot, stable weather and balanced export demand imply unchanged EUR‑equivalent indications.
• İzmir/Aydın FOB Sarılop, Protoben & organic: Sideways to slightly firm bias as sunshine supports quality perceptions and exporters prioritise premium contracts.
• Spain (organic “Spanish Gold”): Stable versus Turkish offers; no fresh supply news likely to shift the EUR price spread in the very near term.