Stable dried fig prices as heat and storms test Turkish and Spanish crops

Dried fig prices from Turkey and Spain are holding broadly steady in late June, with organic Aegean origins still commanding a clear premium over conventional Malatya material and Spanish offers remaining competitively priced in Europe. Weather risks are building, however, as Spain faces an intense early-summer heatwave while Turkey’s main fig regions enter a hot, mostly dry pattern. Short-term, prices look range‑bound, but weather and potential quality issues could shift sentiment quickly. Export quotations in Turkey’s Aegean region remain firm, supported by a roughly 19% year‑on‑year increase in average Turkish fig export values and strong demand from EU buyers. In Spain, a very dry and warm spring has been followed by a severe June heatwave, raising concern over stress on fresh fig and other fruit crops in Extremadura and southern regions. Wholesale dried fig prices in Western Europe are stable but high versus historical norms, suggesting limited downside unless a clearly above‑trend 2025/26 crop materializes.

Prices

All fig prices below are indicative FOB offers converted to EUR using an approximate rate of 1.00 USD = 0.93 EUR where needed.

Supply & Demand

Turkey remains the dominant force in the dried fig market, accounting for over a quarter of global fresh fig output and the lion’s share of dried fig exports. Export data for the 2025/26 marketing year point to rising Turkish volumes and higher unit export values, confirming robust international demand.

Industry estimates suggest Turkish dried fig production could rise from around 60,000 t in 2024/25 to roughly 70,000 t in 2025/26, lifting total world supply to about 156,000 t. Spain remains a smaller but meaningful producer near 10,000–12,000 t, with most output serving EU markets. Stable, high European wholesale prices indicate that downstream demand has absorbed recent cost increases so far.

Weather & Crop Outlook (ES, TR)

Spain (ES)

Extremadura and other western Spanish regions have just emerged from a very dry and unusually warm spring, classified as one of the driest March–May periods since 1991–2020. This has left soils relatively dry entering summer, with irrigation demand rising for figs and other fruit crops.

Since late June, Spain has been experiencing a severe heatwave, with national meteorological services warning of “serious, even extraordinary danger” and highs approaching or exceeding 40°C in parts of the country. For fig orchards, prolonged extreme heat during fruit set and early sizing can stress trees and potentially reduce fresh yields, although the impact on dried fig export availability will only become clear closer to harvest.

Turkey (TR)

The Aegean fig belt around Aydın/İzmir is currently in a seasonal hot, mostly dry early-summer pattern, with local forecasts showing typical late‑June to early‑July heat but no major immediate extremes. Malatya, a key region for dried fruit handling, is similarly warm and dry over the next few days, with standard continental summer conditions.

Earlier in May, the wider Aegean basin experienced a notable cold wave, but current assessments suggest no widespread, confirmed damage to fig orchards at export scale. Overall, the Turkish 2025/26 fig crop is still expected to be at least average to moderately above last season’s volume according to industry forecasts.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Export margins and costs: Recent Turkish research indicates that exporters and processors capture the largest share of the dried fig value chain, making them sensitive to freight, energy and finance costs; this helps explain resistance to lower FOB offers despite stable farm‑gate prices.
• EU demand: Germany, France and other EU destinations remain the key outlets for Turkish dried figs, with stable to firm import interest reported by trade platforms in June 2026.
• Competing fruits: In Spain, recent reports of significant heat‑related losses in maize and tomato crops highlight broader climate stress but may indirectly support dried fruit demand and pricing if fresh fruit availability tightens.
• Policy & risk: EU support measures for weather‑affected farmers in Andalusia and Extremadura underscore longer‑term climate risk to Mediterranean fruit production, potentially adding a structural risk premium to prices.

Trading Outlook (next 1–3 weeks)

• Turkish Aegean organics: With export prices stable and fundamentals supportive, dips in the €13.5–15.0/kg FOB range for premium organic materials look buyable for importers seeking Q3–Q4 coverage.
• Conventional Malatya grades: The €6–7/kg FOB range appears well‑anchored by domestic trade prices; sellers can maintain offers but should remain flexible on nearby shipment premiums if demand slows.
• Spanish origins: Spanish organic figs around €10/kg FOB remain attractive for EU buyers wanting diversification from Turkey, but extreme heat warrants closer crop monitoring before committing to large long‑term positions.
• Risk management: Both buyers and sellers should watch Spanish and Turkish weather updates closely; any confirmed yield impact or quality downgrade could tighten high‑grade availability and push prices higher into late summer.

3‑Day Regional Price Indications

Time window: 27–29 June 2026. All indications are directional, in EUR/kg, FOB equivalent.

• Turkey – İzmir (TR): Organic large‑calibre dried figs expected to hold around €14–15/kg; conventional chopped and lower grades around €9–10/kg. Direction: sideways to slightly firm on steady export interest.
• Turkey – Malatya (TR): Conventional Lerida grades likely to trade near €6–7/kg. Direction: sideways, with domestic bids and Aydın trade sales providing a floor.
• Spain – Madrid / Extremadura (ES): Organic dried figs expected near €9.5–10.5/kg for small export lots. Direction: sideways, heat‑risk premium as markets watch the ongoing heatwave and dryness.