Turkish Dried Fig FOB Prices Flat as Hot Weather Favors New Crop Outlook

Turkish dried fig prices are stable in late June with no week‑on‑week moves, while very hot and mostly dry conditions in the Aegean support expectations for a good 2026 crop and keep near‑term price risks balanced. After several weeks of sideways trading, Turkish dried fig FOB offers from Malatya and Izmir remain unchanged across natural and Lerida grades, and organic products continue to price at a clear premium. Export demand is solid but not explosive, with recent reports pointing to doubled weekly dried fig shipments and sustained EU interest, yet without enough buying pressure to move prices. At the same time, high temperatures and mostly dry weather in Aydın and İzmir underpin a favourable flowering and fruit‑set outlook, reinforcing expectations of an above‑average fresh fig crop that will later feed dried supply. For now, the market is well supplied and broadly balanced, suggesting a stable short‑term price profile.

Prices

All Malatya FOB prices are quoted per kg and converted to EUR using an indicative rate of 1.00 USD ≈ 0.93 EUR for comparison with international references.

Wholesale dried fig prices reported for Turkey in June average around 5.35–5.50 EUR/kg equivalent at origin for generic product, implying current Malatya natural and higher Lerida grades are trading at a premium consistent with export‑quality Aegean figs.  Recent European wholesale indications for dried figs in France in late June cluster between 6–14 EUR/kg depending on calibre and branding, leaving room for Turkish FOB offers to remain competitive into the EU.

Supply & Demand

Aydın and İzmir dominate Turkish dried fig production, accounting for roughly two‑thirds of national output, with the Sarı Lop variety the main drying cultivar.  The 2025/26 season saw strong exports, with around 36,000 tonnes of dried figs shipped and export revenues above 230 million USD, underlining Turkey's role as the key global supplier.

Latest trade commentary notes that Turkish dried fig exports doubled week‑on‑week recently, suggesting that international demand remains firm as European buyers rebuild stocks, though volumes are still within seasonal norms and not tight enough to trigger a price spike. Global dried fruit demand is growing steadily, but competing origins in the Mediterranean and Middle East currently have limited capacity to challenge Turkey's dominant market share, keeping the reference price effectively anchored in the Aegean.

Weather & Crop Outlook (TR)

Weather forecasts for Aydın, the core dried fig province, point to very hot and mostly sunny conditions from 25–27 June, with daytime highs around 36–38 °C, low rainfall and only isolated thunderstorms.  Similar heat is expected in İzmir, where highs are forecast to reach 35–38 °C with no significant rain during the same period. 

Such hot, dry weather during the early fruit development stage is broadly supportive for fig quality, provided prolonged heat stress is avoided. A recent industry report highlights that a gentle winter and favourable growing conditions have boosted expectations for a superior‑sized, high‑quality 2026 fresh fig crop in Turkey, which, if confirmed, should translate into ample raw material for drying later in the season.  For now, there are no weather‑driven supply threats on the horizon.

Fundamentals & Drivers

• Flat spot prices: No change in Malatya FOB levels over the past three weeks across natural and Lerida grades, indicating a well‑balanced spot market.
• Solid export program: Weekly shipments have strengthened, with some industry news citing a doubling in dried fig exports week‑on‑week, but still within capacity and without drawing stocks down aggressively. 
• Favourable crop expectations: Reports of an excellent 2026 crop outlook, supported by a mild winter and current hot, dry weather, point to comfortable forward supply, limiting bullish risk for nearby contracts. 
• Competitive position vs. EU prices: European wholesale levels for dried figs at 6–14 EUR/kg leave Turkish FOB offers with margin for logistics and processing while remaining attractive, especially for higher grades. 

Trading Outlook

• Short term (next 1–3 weeks): With stable FOB prices, strong but not overheated export demand, and benign weather, the base case is a sideways market in EUR terms. Minor intra‑grade adjustments are possible as exporters fine‑tune spreads.
• For buyers: Consider covering nearby Q3 needs at current levels, especially for premium natural and organic grades, which trade at a manageable premium to EU wholesale benchmarks. Upside risk appears limited as long as weather stays favourable.
• For sellers: Maintain offer discipline; with a positive crop outlook and competitive Turkish position, aggressive discounting is not yet warranted. Monitor any sudden shift in EU demand or logistics costs that could pressure FOB indications.

3‑Day Directional Price View (TR, FOB)

• Malatya, TR (natural & Lerida dried figs): Stable in EUR over the next three days. Weather and demand developments do not justify an immediate move.
• İzmir, TR (organic and specialty fig products): Stable with a slightly firm tone due to niche demand and limited premium supply; no clear trigger for short‑term price cuts.