Dried fig prices stable as heat builds in Spain and Turkey

Dried fig export prices in Turkey and Spain are holding broadly steady in mid‑July, with only marginal movements in organic specialty lines. Despite intensifying summer heat in both origins, there is no immediate weather‑driven squeeze on dried supply, keeping nearby offers flat and spreads between grades unchanged. Dried fig markets remain quietly supported but not rallying. In Turkey, FOB İzmir prices for key organic Lerida and Protoben grades are unchanged over the last two weeks, while conventional Malatya figs are flat along the size curve. Spain’s Spanish Gold figs also show no recent price movement. Hot, dry conditions and rising fire risk in Aydın and Extremadura are seasonally typical and, so far, not reported to have damaged fig orchards. With global 2025/26 dried fig production expected to increase versus last season, buyers retain some bargaining power, but any localised fire or heat damage in the Aegean or western Spain could quickly tighten premiums for higher‑spec product.

Prices

FOB dried fig prices are essentially unchanged week‑on‑week in both Turkey and Spain. Organic export types out of İzmir are trading in the mid‑teens EUR/kg, with conventional chopped and natural grades in high single to low double digits. Spanish dried figs remain at a discount to Turkish organic offers. The price structure between sizes and grades in Malatya is stable, signalling balanced nearby demand rather than aggressive spot buying.

European wholesale references confirm a stable undertone: French wholesale dried figs from Turkey are quoted around 5 EUR/packet at Rungis as of 16 July 2026, with fresh flat figs in a wide 6–14 EUR/kg range depending on calibre, pointing to no sudden shortage in fig availability in consumer markets.

Supply & Demand

Turkey remains the dominant dried fig supplier, led by orchards in Aydın province with İzmir as the main export hub. International industry estimates from March indicate 2025/26 world dried fig production around 156,400 tonnes, up from 137,800 tonnes the previous season, with Türkiye’s crop projected near 70,000 tonnes and Spain just over 10,000 tonnes. This points to a comfortable global balance, even if local weather issues arise.

Exports from Turkey’s dried fruit sector for the marketing year to mid‑July 2026 remain robust, according to recent figures from the Dried Fruits and Products Exporters’ Association, indicating sustained overseas demand into Europe and beyond. On the demand side, European consumption of dried figs appears steady, supported by healthy‑snacking trends, but faces competition from other dried fruits. The absence of sharp price moves suggests that spot buying is largely hand‑to‑mouth, with buyers confident in supply coverage for now.

Weather & Crop Conditions (TR, ES)

In western Turkey, where most export figs are produced, July climatology in Aydın features very hot and dry summers, with average maximum temperatures around 37°C and long sunshine hours. Recent local reports highlight vegetation fires in Aydın’s olive and grassland areas earlier this month, but these have been brought under control and there are currently no official reports of major damage to fig orchards. Against a backdrop of increasing frequency of heatwaves in Turkey, current conditions are nonetheless broadly within the expected seasonal pattern for the Aegean fig belt.

In Spain, the key fig areas in Extremadura and western regions are entering another hot spell. A heatwave over western Europe and Spain is bringing temperatures above 40°C in southwestern river valleys this week, intensifying drought and wildfire risk. The regional government of Extremadura has already declared a high fire‑risk period from 1 June to 15 October 2026, underscoring structural dryness and vulnerability of tree crops during summer. Short‑term weather forecasts for Extremadura point to continued hot, dry conditions with clear skies and strong solar radiation, supportive for sugar accumulation in figs but stressing non‑irrigated orchards.

Fundamentals & Risk Drivers

• Comfortable global balance: The latest industry projections imply higher global fig supply in 2025/26 versus 2024/25, led by a larger Turkish crop and stable Spanish output, which caps the upside for base‑grade prices.
• Regional climate stress but no acute shock: Heatwaves and fire risk in Aydın and Extremadura are elevated but so far within seasonal norms, with only local fire incidents reported and no broad orchard losses confirmed.
• Steady European consumption: Stable wholesale quotations in France and normal retail availability suggest end‑user demand is firm but not surging, aligning with a sideways price pattern.
• Long‑term climate risk: Scientific work on heatwave trends in southwestern Spain points to a rising frequency and duration of extreme heat events, which may gradually constrain yields and water availability for tree crops, including figs, over the coming years.

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day Price Indications

Trading outlook (next 1–2 weeks)

• Buyers: With FOB prices in both Turkey and Spain flat and global supply comfortable, nearby coverage can still be taken on a staggered basis. Consider modest forward purchases in premium organic grades where any weather‑driven story could trigger a relatively larger price reaction.
• Sellers: Maintain offer discipline at current levels; there is little justification for discounting while heat and fire risk remain in focus. Be prepared to highlight quality and origin reliability to justify existing premiums over competing dried fruits.
• Risk management: Monitor fire reports and local weather bulletins for Aydın/İzmir and Extremadura closely; any confirmed orchard damage could rapidly narrow discounts between conventional and organic or between Spanish and Turkish origins.

3‑day directional price view (in EUR, FOB)

• Turkey – İzmir (TR): Organic export figs (Lerida / Protoben / Mini) and conventional chopped figs are expected to remain stable over the next three trading days, with indicative levels around 10.5–16.0 EUR/kg FOB. No immediate catalyst is visible to move the market sharply.
• Turkey – Malatya (TR): Conventional natural and Lerida dried figs across sizes should stay sideways, holding in the 6.0–9.6 EUR/kg FOB range. Any shift would likely be linked to broader dried fruit complex moves rather than local fundamentals.
• Spain – Western regions / Madrid quotes (ES): Spanish Gold dried figs are expected to trade flat around 10.8 EUR/kg FOB in the coming three days, with hot, dry weather more supportive of quality than disruptive in the very short term.