Turkish Dried Fig FOB Steady as Hot, Dry Weather Supports Crop Outlook

Turkish dried fig FOB prices are holding steady in mid-July, with no week‑on‑week moves in Malatya and organic offers in Izmir also unchanged. Hot, dry weather in the key fig regions is currently supportive for crop development, keeping nearby supply expectations comfortable and limiting short‑term upside in export prices. Export demand for Turkish dried fruits remains solid and the country is on track for another strong year in dried fruit exports overall, but figs are not yet facing tightness comparable to other products. Clear, seasonally hot conditions in both Malatya and Izmir favour fruit maturation and drying, while the main fig harvest window is still several weeks away. Against this backdrop, the near‑term fig market is trading in a narrow range, with buyers able to secure forward coverage without facing aggressive sellers’ price hikes.

Prices

Latest indicative Turkish FOB prices for conventional dried figs (Malatya, 15 July 2026) show a flat curve compared with the previous week, with size premiums intact and no visible tightening. Organic speciaIty figs ex-Izmir also remain unchanged versus 10 July levels, confirming the overall sideways trend.

These levels are broadly aligned with the wider Turkish fig price environment reported for July 2026, where average Turkish fig prices are modestly higher year‑on‑year in local‑currency and USD terms, but current export quotes for dried product are not accelerating further at this stage.

Supply & Demand

Turkey remains the dominant global supplier of both fresh and dried figs and continues to anchor international availability. Recent export commentary from the Turkish dried fruit sector highlights strong overall dried fruit shipments in the first half of 2026 and an ambition to reach USD 2 billion in dried fruit exports this year, underscoring robust demand for Turkish-origin product, including figs.

At this point in the season, most trading interest in figs is focused on bridging existing stock into the 2026/27 crop and negotiating early new‑crop positions. With no fresh supply shock and a still‑comfortable pipeline, buyers are taking a measured approach to coverage, avoiding over‑buying while keeping an eye on weather risks as the harvest window approaches in the Aegean and Mediterranean fig belts. Turkish macro trade data for June 2026 also confirms healthy agricultural exports, reinforcing the view of continued external demand absorption.

Weather & Crop Conditions (Region: TR)

Weather conditions in Turkey’s key dried fig regions are currently benign to supportive. In Malatya, the 3‑day outlook from 16–18 July points to plenty of sunshine with daytime highs around 33–34°C and cool nights in the high teens, typical for mid‑summer and favourable for fruit development and early drying activities.

Along the Aegean coast around Izmir, where major fig orchards are concentrated, forecasts call for hot, very sunny weather with maximum temperatures near 36–37°C and warm nights around 23–24°C over the same period. These conditions are ideal for pre‑harvest fig maturation and should support a good drying environment when the main harvest, typically commencing in late August, ramps up. No significant adverse events (frost, excessive rain or storms) have been reported for figs in recent days, and there are no immediate weather‑driven threats flagged for the next week.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Stable near‑term supply: Existing dried fig inventories, combined with an increasingly favourable outlook for the upcoming crop, are easing concerns about tightness and helping contain price volatility.
• Firm export backdrop: The broader Turkish dried fruit complex is enjoying solid export demand, with the sector targeting higher 2026 revenues. This underpins a floor under fig prices but has not yet translated into pronounced upward pressure specifically for figs.
• Weather supportive, not extreme: Current hot, dry conditions in Malatya and Izmir are positive for fig quality and drying potential without reaching the extreme heat levels seen in past years that could stress trees or fruit.
• Macro & currency context: While not moving fig prices week‑on‑week, the combination of a competitive Turkish export position and firm global demand for fruit and nut ingredients continues to make Turkish origin attractive in EUR terms.

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day Price View (Region: TR)

• Short‑term bias: Sideways. With FOB Malatya offers unchanged across sizes and Izmir organics flat, the market is likely to remain range‑bound over the next 3 days in the absence of new crop or policy surprises.
• For importers: Consider layering in coverage for Q4 2026–Q1 2027 needs at current levels, especially on preferred sizes and organic specs, as the weather‑supported crop outlook limits downside while export demand caps meaningful discounts.
• For Turkish packers/exporters: Maintain current offer levels but be prepared for selective discounting on larger‑volume, standard grades to stimulate forward sales ahead of harvest if demand softens.
• For industrial users: Given stable prices and favourable crop signals, this is a window to standardise specifications and lock in contracts to hedge against potential later‑season disruptions (logistics, quality issues or weather shocks).

3‑Day Directional Price Indication (EUR, FOB, 16–18 July 2026)

• Malatya conventional dried figs (No. 1–7, natural & Lerida): 6.10–9.60 EUR/kg, expected stable.
• Izmir organic figs (Lerida, Protoben, Mini, cubes/chopped): 9.65–16.05 EUR/kg, expected stable.