Dried figs head into new season with quality focus and firm prices
Figs market quiet but optimistic: stronger quality controls, good weather, stable EUR FOB prices and solid export potential into the new dried fig season.
Prices
FOB Turkey prices for conventional dried figs remain stable across calibers. Natural Malatya figs trade around EUR 7.8–9.6/kg (No. 6–1), while Lerida types are quoted near EUR 6.1–9.0/kg, with no change between mid‑June and mid‑July, indicating a sideways, wait‑and‑see market. Organic and specialty products in Izmir (Lerida No. 4, Protoben, Mini) are priced markedly higher at roughly EUR 14.9–16.1/kg, also flat over recent weeks. This stability, despite expectations of a good crop, suggests that sellers see little pressure to discount ahead of harvest and that buyers are still cautious about overcommitting before quality and drying weather are confirmed.
Supply & Demand
At the recent industry summit, producers and exporters converged on a key priority: preventing a repeat of last season’s aflatoxin problems. Controls will now start already at the drying phase, with intensified producer awareness and on‑farm inspections during drying, sorting and storage. This should improve consistency in food safety, reduce rejections and strengthen the reliability of Turkish origin in key export markets.
On the supply side, weather to date has been described as favorable for figs, pointing to a high‑quality and abundant new crop. Seasonal and monthly forecasts for the Aegean and broader Turkish fig belt indicate temperatures near to slightly above normal and generally limited rainfall through late July and early August, conditions that are typically supportive for ripening and subsequent field drying of figs. If this pattern continues and rain events remain sparse during the critical drying window, export availability should be ample, and quality premiums may narrow as buyers have more choice among clean lots.
Fundamentals & Weather
Fundamental sentiment is cautiously optimistic. The combination of expected large supply and enhanced quality control implies potential for strong export flows at the start of the campaign. However, the market still remembers last season’s aflatoxin‑related disruptions, which created uncertainty, claims and logistical delays. This memory is encouraging both packers and growers to adhere strictly to new inspection protocols, especially around moisture levels and on‑ground drying hygiene.
Medium‑range forecasts from the Turkish meteorological service point to temperatures around or above seasonal norms in western Turkey and generally near or below normal rainfall for much of the late July–early August period. Such a pattern is broadly favorable for sun‑drying, as long as isolated convective showers remain limited. A shift to wetter‑than‑normal conditions during peak drying would be the key downside risk, potentially elevating aflatoxin risk again and trimming the share of top‑grade product.
Outlook & Trading Strategy
- Short‑term (next 2–4 weeks): Markets likely remain quiet and broadly sideways as participants monitor field conditions and first cutting. With prices already at "reasonable" levels and no strong demand shock, only minor adjustments are expected.
- New‑season opening: If drying progresses under predominantly dry, warm weather, a well‑supplied market with good sanitary quality is likely. This should support competitive starting offers, especially for mid‑range calibers, while leaving room for selective premiums on early, certifiably low‑aflatoxin lots.
- Risk management: Importers with strict aflatoxin specifications may consider forward cover on suppliers demonstrably aligned with the new inspection regime, while keeping some volume open to benefit from any price easing if the large crop materializes fully.