Turkish Figs Head for High-Yield Season as Prices Hold Steady

Strong pollination, hot and dry weather and intensive orchard controls point to a high‑yield Turkish fig crop in 2026/27, while export prices in EUR for dried figs remain broadly stable ahead of the crucial mid‑August pricing period. With the pollination period completed in the last week of June and early fruit development benefiting from warm, dry conditions, producer sentiment is clearly optimistic for the upcoming harvest. Authorities have stepped up quality inspections and training in orchards, aiming to translate this agronomic advantage into higher export volumes after last season’s 7,000‑ton decline. For now, dried fig prices from Turkey in EUR are steady around 6–10 EUR/kg FOB, signaling a market that is waiting for clearer signals on actual crop size and export demand before repricing.

Prices

Dried fig quotations from Turkey in Malatya remain stable as of 1 July 2026. Conventional natural figs are indicated around 7.8–9.6 EUR/kg FOB (sizes No. 6–1), while Lerida types trade roughly between 6.1 and 9.0 EUR/kg FOB depending on size. Organic specialties, mainly FOB Izmir, span about 9.7–16.1 EUR/kg, with premium mini and Protoben types at the top end of the range.

Over June, most conventional lines show flat pricing, indicating balanced nearby supply and demand despite expectations of a larger new crop. Within the Lerida segment, some mid‑sizes have firmed modestly while top sizes eased slightly, suggesting active grade rebalancing rather than a broad market move. Overall, the price structure still reflects old‑crop fundamentals, with major adjustments likely only once new‑season export prices are set in mid‑August.

Supply & Demand

The pollination period for the new fig crop in Western Turkey ended in the last week of June under overall favorable conditions. Provincial agricultural authorities intensified orchard inspections and producer training during this phase, targeting both yield and quality improvements. Hot and dry weather since early June has supported good fruit set and early development, and local expectations now point clearly to a high‑yield year.

This expected rebound follows a previous season marked by a 7,000‑ton drop in exports, leaving exporters keen to rebuild volumes and market share. Strong supply potential increases the pressure on traders to open new destinations or deepen penetration in core markets such as the EU. Demand on the import side remains seasonally moderate at the start of summer, with many buyers preferring to wait for more concrete new‑crop supply signals and price indications before committing to larger forward coverage.

Weather & Crop Conditions

Since the beginning of June, weather in the main fig‑growing belt has been predominantly hot and dry, a pattern that is broadly supportive for fruit development at this stage. In the coming three days for the Aydın region, which is one of the key fig production zones, forecasts point to continued strong sunshine and high daytime temperatures around the upper 30s °C, with warm nights.

Such conditions favour further sizing and sugar accumulation but also increase the need for careful orchard management to avoid drought stress in shallow soils. Intensified field monitoring by local authorities should help producers respond quickly to any localized stress or pest issues. For now, there are no widespread weather threats on the horizon, reinforcing the market’s expectation of a large, good‑quality crop heading into the main drying period later in summer.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

Fundamentally, the fig market is entering a classic transition phase between old and new crop. Stocks from the previous season are gradually tightening but remain sufficient to bridge demand until the new harvest, explaining why spot prices have been flat over June. The central question for the coming months is how the anticipated high yield will intersect with export demand and currency dynamics when new‑season prices are set in mid‑August.

Exporters, having experienced last season’s 7,000‑ton shortfall, will likely push aggressively for volume recovery. This could translate into competitive offer levels in EUR, especially for mid‑range sizes and conventional product, provided quality meets expectations. At the same time, the enhanced focus on quality inspections and farmer training may support premiums for higher‑grade and organic product, preserving some price differentiation even in a supply‑heavy year.

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day View

• For buyers: With a high‑yield crop in sight and stable spot prices, consider covering only short‑term needs now and wait for mid‑August new‑season price indications for larger positions, particularly in standard sizes.
• For exporters: Use the current window to secure forward inquiries and structure offers that highlight quality improvements; be prepared for price negotiations to turn more competitive if the large crop is confirmed.
• For processors and packers: Plan for potential grade compression in abundant sizes; locking in some volumes of premium and organic figs early could mitigate later competition for top‑quality lots.

Over the next three days, with weather in key Turkish fig regions remaining hot and dry, no immediate supply shock is expected. Spot EUR prices for Turkish dried figs are likely to stay broadly stable near current FOB levels, with only minor grade‑specific adjustments. Market attention will remain firmly on field reports and fruit sizing, as participants position for the critical mid‑August pricing window.