Dried figs under climate and quality pressure as Turkish stocks seek a home

Climate‑driven quality losses and export rejections are weighing on the Turkish dried fig market, keeping Lerida prices under downward pressure while natural grades hold steady. Domestic demand is absorbing more downgraded product, and the new season’s success will hinge on strict quality control and aflatoxin management. The fig crop in Western Turkey has been hit by heavy rains just as trees started bearing fruit in early May, reducing eating quality and raising aflatoxin risk in dried product. As a result, producers are pushing remaining stocks into the domestic market, while exports suffer from increased returns and tighter buyer specifications. At the same time, a large-scale quality-improvement program with field experts in Aydın aims to stabilize export reliability for the coming season. In pricing, natural dried figs remain broadly stable, but Lerida types have seen a clear correction since mid‑April as quality concerns and returned lots add pressure.

Prices

FOB Malatya offers for Turkish dried figs on 13 May 2026 show a sideways to weaker pattern in EUR terms. Natural types (No. 1–7) are stable versus late April, trading roughly between EUR 7.8–9.6/kg, while Lerida types have softened across all calibres.

The price spread between stable natural figs and softer Lerida reflects a market discount for downgraded or more vulnerable product. Exporters facing returns appear more willing to trim Lerida offers to move stock, while high-quality natural grades remain supported by tighter, specification‑driven demand.

Supply & Demand

Heavy rains during early May have damaged fig trees and negatively affected taste and overall fruit quality. This has increased the share of product that is either downgraded or at higher risk of aflatoxin, complicating export programs that rely on consistent, premium quality.

With exports under pressure from returned shipments, producers are diverting more volumes to the domestic market, where quality tolerance is higher and contractual penalties are lower. This shift helps to clear stocks but caps upside on lower grades and supports the observed discounting in Lerida prices.

Fundamentals & Quality Initiatives

A key fundamental driver this season is quality, not volume. Aflatoxin contamination and off‑flavors linked to adverse weather have already led to increased export returns last season and again this year, eroding buyer confidence and tightening private quality standards.

To address this, a new field project in cooperation with the Aydın Provincial Directorate of Agriculture and Forestry and the Erbeyli Fig Research Institute—funded by the Aegean Exporters’ Associations—has been scaled up. Expert teams are working directly with producers in 12 districts, providing guidance from orchard management through harvesting, drying, and storage to secure quality‑focused production and lower contamination risk.

Weather & New Season Outlook

The recent pattern of heavy rainfall during sensitive phenological stages underscores the growing climate risk to figs in Western Turkey. If wet conditions recur closer to harvest, the market could again face elevated mold and aflatoxin pressure, limiting exportable volumes even if total production is adequate.

For the coming weeks, market attention will focus on field conditions, the effectiveness of improved drying and storage practices, and feedback from early quality checks. Any confirmation of cleaner, better‑tasting early lots would be price‑supportive for export‑grade naturals and selected Lerida sizes.

Trading Outlook

• Export buyers: Use current Lerida weakness (especially No. 4–7) to secure selectively, but insist on strict aflatoxin and sensory specifications; prioritize suppliers engaged in the new field‑support programs.
• Packers/exporters: Hedge quality risk by pre‑sorting aggressively and channeling marginal lots to domestic markets; maintain offer discipline on high‑end natural figs where prices are holding.
• Industrial users: Consider forward coverage in mid‑range Lerida sizes while discounts persist, balancing cost savings against potential variability in taste and color.

3‑Day Price Direction (FOB Turkey, in EUR)

• Natural dried figs (No. 1–5): Stable, narrow range with firm undertone for top quality.
• Lerida dried figs (No. 1–3): Slightly soft to sideways as buyers test quality and negotiation power remains with importers.
• Lerida dried figs (No. 4–7): Bearish bias; further small discounts possible where stock pressure and quality doubts coincide.