Turkish Dried Figs: Naturals Steady, Lerida Under Pressure as Buyers Push Discounts

Turkish dried fig prices in Malatya are bifurcating: natural grades are flat, while Lerida grades have corrected sharply lower, reflecting heavier offers and more price-sensitive export demand. With no immediate weather threat and solid projected global fig supplies, buyers hold the upper hand for lower grades over the next few days, while top naturals remain relatively resilient. Dried fig trade from Türkiye continues to find buyers worldwide, and recent export intelligence shows active flows in key destinations, confirming that structural demand for figs as a healthy snack and ingredient remains solid. In Malatya and other dried-fruit hubs, weather over the coming three days is seasonally mild with only scattered showers, posing no short-term risk to drying or logistics. Against this backdrop, the current price structure—steady naturals versus discounted Lerida—suggests a market in orderly correction rather than stress. Nearby price action is likely to stay soft-to-sideways, especially for Lerida grades, as exporters compete for limited spot business.

Prices & Spreads

FOB Malatya prices for Turkish dried figs (non-organic, origin TR) are presently stable for natural grades and notably weaker for Lerida grades. Naturals range from roughly EUR 7.6/kg for No.7 up to about EUR 9.6/kg for No.1, with virtually no change versus early May, indicating balanced spot conditions. Lerida, by contrast, shows cuts of around 1.3–2.2 EUR/kg across No.4–No.7 over the last month, signalling seller willingness to concede to buyer price ideas on visually oriented product.

The widened discount of Lerida versus naturals underscores a quality and specification premium at a time when buyers can choose among suppliers and are pushing hardest on lower grades.

Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

Globally, the dried fig balance for 2025/26 points to comfortable availability. Industry figures project Türkiye’s dried fig production around 70,000 tonnes with total supply at 75,000 tonnes and higher ending stocks year-on-year, while world total supply is seen expanding to about 171,400 tonnes. This reinforces a calm fundamental backdrop and reduces urgency for buyers to chase prices in the current inter‑crop window.

Recent export intelligence on Turkish dry figs under HS 080420900011 confirms active shipments to a broad range of markets, including Europe and North America, even though the underlying database aggregates several years of flows. Combined with comments from trade groups that Turkey holds a leading share in global fig production and exports, this underlines the country’s continued dominance in dried figs despite local macro and currency volatility. With no fresh demand shock reported in the last few days, the present price easing in Lerida is best read as a competitive adjustment rather than a demand collapse.

Weather & Crop Conditions (Region: TR)

For Malatya, a key dried-fruit hub, the next three days bring seasonally mild, mixed conditions: hazy sun with possible local thunderstorms today (highs around 23°C), turning cooler and mostly cloudy with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm tomorrow (highs near 18°C), then returning to hazy sun with highs around 20°C on Saturday. These patterns are typical for mid‑May and pose limited risk for stored dried figs or logistics.

More broadly across dried-fruit regions in Türkiye, including the Aegean where fig orchards are concentrated, recent industry comments highlight mostly favourable spring weather and an improving production outlook for the upcoming crop, supporting expectations of solid 2025/26 supplies. While Malatya itself is more apricot‑focused, current adequate reservoir levels and manageable weather help sustain overall dried‑fruit operations, indirectly supporting fig handling and export logistics.

Market Drivers & Fundamentals

Three drivers are shaping today’s dried fig price structure. First, comfortable projected global supplies and higher ending stocks reduce the need for aggressive coverage by importers. Second, currency and macro conditions in Türkiye encourage exporters to prioritise volume and cash flow, making them more willing to negotiate on price, especially for Lerida grades where competition with other dried fruits and origins is strong. Third, steady demand for healthy snacking and ingredient use keeps a firm floor under higher‑quality naturals, limiting any downside there.

Cross‑commodity signals from dried apricots—where Malatya‑origin prices are currently rated as stable despite earlier frost‑related tightness—also indicate that international buyers are selective, focusing on quality and price rather than rushing into large forward positions. This sentiment spills over into figs, where negotiations centre on grade, specification, and shipment timing, with Lerida bearing the brunt of buyer pushback.

3‑Day Price Outlook (FOB Malatya, EUR)

• Naturals (No.1–5): Sideways bias. Stable demand and limited seller pressure are likely to keep prices in current ranges over the next three days, with only minor, deal‑specific adjustments.
• Lerida (No.4–7): Slightly softer to stable. After recent sharp corrections, some further marginal easing is possible where sellers seek to clear stocks, but the bulk of the adjustment appears already priced in.
• Overall market tone: Balanced but buyer‑friendly, with no imminent weather or supply shock expected to tighten the market in the very near term.

Trading Outlook & Strategy

• Importers / buyers: Consider scaling in Lerida purchases at current reduced levels, using the widened discount versus naturals to improve blends and margins. Maintain a more patient stance on naturals, where prices are stable and fundamentals remain firm.
• Exporters / packers in Türkiye: For Lerida, focus on selective discounts tied to volume and prompt shipment rather than across‑the‑board cuts to protect margins. For naturals, defend current price ideas, highlighting quality, traceability and consistent supply.
• Traders / distributors: Use the current calm period to rebalance inventories, favouring quality‑differentiated portfolios that can respond quickly if the next crop outlook or currency moves shift sentiment later in the season.