Policy and Trade Signals Tighten Global Pulse Balance Despite Ample Supplies

Australian pulse prices are firming even as global supplies remain comfortable, with policy settings in key importers and cautious farmer selling combining to tighten effective availability. Recent government confirmations on India’s pulse import regime and Pakistan’s tariff structure are reinforcing trade flows into South Asia, underpinning demand for Australian desi chickpeas and Canadian–Australian red lentils.

Desi chickpea values into South Asia are consolidating around higher CNF levels, supported by active buying from Pakistan and reference parity into India near ₹8,000/quintal. At the same time, red lentil markets are orienting toward the US$550/MT CNF mark despite sizeable combined stocks in Canada and Australia, as producers use strong balance sheets and on-farm storage to pace sales.

Introduction

In the past few days, policy signals from major importing countries have helped define the trade backdrop for pulses as the Northern Hemisphere marketing year advances. India has indicated that its existing pulse import policy, including duties on chickpeas and lentils, will remain unchanged at least until the upcoming rabi season, preserving the current tariff-differentiated access for various pulse categories.

Pakistan’s customs and tariff framework for pulses, set within its broader National Tariff Policy 2025–30, continues to apply relatively low or zero basic customs duties on a wide range of dried leguminous vegetables, including chickpeas and lentils, though specific preferential schemes and concessions apply under bilateral agreements. These policy stances, combined with firm import demand, are sustaining trade flows from Australia and Canada even as headline supply estimates suggest comfortable availability.

Immediate Market Impact

The confirmation that India’s pulse import policy and applied duties will remain unchanged until at least the next rabi harvest means traders can continue to price shipments against a known duty structure: around 10% customs duty on desi-type chickpeas and lentils, zero duty on some other pulses, and higher levies on yellow peas. This stability is limiting the risk of sudden policy-driven demand shocks but also caps arbitrage opportunities into India unless overseas prices dip or domestic values spike.

For exporters in Australia and Canada, this clarity encourages forward selling of desi chickpeas and red lentils into South Asia within current duty-paid price bands. Freight and logistics planning into Indian and Pakistani ports can proceed without the immediate risk of new tariff barriers or quota constraints, supporting steady flows rather than the stop–go patterns that accompany abrupt policy changes.

Supply Chain Disruptions

While there are no new logistical restrictions reported on pulse imports into India or Pakistan, the effective flow of product is being moderated upstream by farmer marketing decisions in Australia and Canada. With comfortable on-farm storage and improved liquidity, growers are in a position to hold stocks rather than sell aggressively into harvest-time lows.

This deliberate pacing of sales is translating into tighter nearby availability at origin, even though the underlying crop and carry-out volumes are large. Exporters are therefore facing a situation where vessel programs can still be met, but spot cargo assembly may require paying up, especially for desi chickpeas bound for Pakistan and red lentils for wider Asia and the Middle East.

Commodities Potentially Affected

• Desi chickpeas (Bengal gram/chana) – Stable Indian duties around 10% on desi-type chickpeas, combined with Pakistan’s ongoing import需求 under a predictable tariff framework, are supporting CNF values for Australian origin and tightening nearby offers.
• Red lentils (masoor) – India’s 10% duty on lentils and Pakistan’s broadly liberal tariff treatment for lentils allow continuous inflows, but limited farmer selling in Canada and Australia is helping push CNF price ideas toward US$550/MT.
• Other pulses (tur, urad, yellow peas) – The decision to maintain India’s current structure, including zero duty on tur and urad and 30% on yellow peas, shapes relative price spreads within the pulse complex and can indirectly influence acreage and future availability of chickpeas and lentils in exporting countries.

Regional Trade Implications

South Asia remains the key demand hub. India’s decision not to relax chickpea and lentil duties ahead of rabi means incremental demand for desi chickpeas is more likely to be serviced by Pakistan and other importers than by India stepping up purchases, unless domestic prices move sharply higher.

Australia and Canada are positioned to retain or grow their market share into Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and the Middle East, where tariff barriers on pulses are generally lower and state-backed food security buying can be responsive to price signals. Exporters in these origins benefit from the absence of new policy headwinds, while competing suppliers with higher freight into South Asia may struggle to match CNF indications given the current duty and freight differentials.

Market Outlook

In the near term, the combination of steady South Asian demand, unchanged import policies and measured farmer selling suggests that pulse markets are biased toward firmness rather than weakness, despite comfortable global supply statistics. Desi chickpea prices into Pakistan and notional parity into India are likely to remain supported so long as growers in Australia continue to resist pressure to sell larger volumes.

Red lentil values look set to test higher CNF levels if buyers continue to compete for limited nearby offers from Canada and Australia, particularly if freight markets tighten or if any logistics bottlenecks emerge later in the marketing year. Traders will watch closely for any unanticipated tariff adjustments in India, procurement moves by Pakistan’s public and private sector, and shifts in grower selling patterns that could release more volume into export pipelines.

CMB Market Insight

For pulse market participants, the current environment underscores how policy stability can still generate meaningful price moves when combined with disciplined stockholding at origin. India’s decision to hold the line on pulse duties into the rabi season and Pakistan’s steady tariff framework are locking in trade lanes that favour Australia and Canada, even as those exporters manage abundant supplies.

Desi chickpea and red lentil traders should plan around structurally firm nearby markets, with risk skewed toward upside volatility if demand surprises to the upside or if any unexpected policy tightening arises in key importing countries. Strategic positioning on logistics, basis and currency will be as important as outright price levels in capturing opportunities in this increasingly supply-managed pulse complex.