Raisin Market Holds Firm as Geopolitics and Freight Risks Intensify

Stable to slightly firmer raisin prices contrast with heightened geopolitical and freight risks, while ample grain supplies and cautious buying temper any near‑term rally.

The raisin complex is trading in a relatively tight range, with Turkish and Indian offers broadly steady and only modest week‑on‑week adjustments. At the same time, the Iran–US–Israel conflict and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz are reshaping global trade routes and war‑risk surcharges, raising medium‑term logistics and energy‑cost risks for dried fruit exporters and importers. Against this backdrop, abundant wheat and broader grain supplies are capping cross‑commodity support on the food side, keeping buyers disciplined and encouraging only selective forward coverage rather than aggressive stock‑building.

📈 Prices & Spreads

Raisin prices in key origins remain broadly stable with a slight firming bias in some Turkish sultana grades. Turkish Malatya FOB sultanas type 9 grade A have moved up from about EUR 2.28/kg to roughly EUR 2.35/kg, while higher‑quality type 10 grade A is near EUR 2.65/kg. Organic sultanas type 9 grade A are steady around EUR 3.10/kg, indicating resilient specialty demand despite wider macro uncertainty.

In India, FOB New Delhi prices remain competitive: brown raisins grade AA hover around EUR 1.86/kg, black AA near EUR 1.80/kg, and golden AA around EUR 2.31/kg. European FCA Dordrecht/Hamburg quotations for standard sultanas are clustered around EUR 2.18–2.23/kg, reflecting comfortable nearby supply and only limited freight‑driven uplift so far.

Product	Origin / Term	Recent price (EUR/kg)	1–2 week change
Sultanas type 9, grade A	TR, Malatya, FOB	≈ 2.35	↗ from ≈ 2.28
Sultanas type 10, grade A	TR, Malatya, FOB	≈ 2.65	↗ from ≈ 2.58
Sultanas std no. 9, grade AA	CN → NL, FCA	≈ 2.18	≈ stable
Golden raisins, grade AA	IN, New Delhi, FOB	≈ 2.31	≈ stable
Brown raisins, feed	AF → NL, FCA	≈ 1.93	slightly softer

🌍 Supply, Grains & Geopolitics

Across India’s grain belt, persistent rains and hail in Madhya Pradesh have temporarily halted wheat harvests, but this has not translated into higher prices. Old‑crop wheat holders are actively selling into wholesale markets, while expectations of an exceptional new wheat crop (about 115 million tonnes versus 109 million tonnes last year) are fostering a bearish undertone. Government procurement at an MSP of roughly EUR 27.6/100 kg plus a possible state bonus remains well above spot market levels, encouraging farmers to delay fresh spot wheat sales.

This ample grain backdrop indirectly caps upside for processed foods, including raisins: with flour mills and food manufacturers seeing no immediate need to chase grain higher, there is limited cost‑push pressure from the cereal side into dried fruit input demand. Internationally, wheat export channels are reopening but global benchmark wheat prices are being held down by logistics disruptions tied to the Iran–US–Israel conflict, which limit export‑driven price support and keep buyers cautious about long positions.

The same conflict is reshaping global freight patterns. The effective closure or restriction of the Strait of Hormuz for Western shipping and the associated war‑risk surcharges and diversions toward alternative Gulf and Middle Eastern ports are starting to add structural risk premia to logistics costs. While recent container benchmarks show only moderate rate moves so far, increases of around 10–15% on some Asia–Mediterranean lanes and new war surcharges per container point to rising transport costs that could gradually filter into CIF raisin prices over the coming weeks if the conflict persists.

📊 Fundamentals & Demand

On the supply side, current price behavior suggests that exporters in Turkey, India, China and Chile are generally well covered for nearby shipments. Slight upward adjustments in selected Turkish FOB sultana grades indicate a measured effort to pass on higher costs and test demand, but the absence of sharp spikes signals that inventories and pipeline stocks remain adequate. In India, small week‑to‑week changes across golden, brown and black grades point to a finely balanced domestic and export pipeline.

Demand from Europe and other import regions remains steady but unspectacular, with buyers prioritizing coverage for Q2 while avoiding large speculative builds. Intra‑European FCA prices for raisins in the Netherlands and Germany show only marginal softening or firming depending on origin, underlining that competition between Turkish, Chinese and other sources is keeping a lid on broader price inflation. The bearish sentiment in wheat and other grains further encourages industrial users to resist aggressive raisin offer hikes and to negotiate hard on freight and premiums.

🌦️ Weather & Logistics Outlook

Weather in India’s key grape‑ and raisin‑producing states has been seasonally mixed, but the more acute weather disruptions are currently centered on the wheat belt rather than vineyards. At this stage there is no strong evidence of weather‑driven raisin supply stress for the current marketing window. The bigger variable is logistics: the Middle East conflict is driving up war‑risk insurance, bunker costs and regional rerouting, especially around the Strait of Hormuz and neighboring ports, with carriers increasingly diverting volumes via alternative hubs and landbridges.

If the conflict remains prolonged, exporters in Turkey and Iran will likely face higher and more volatile freight bills on some routes, while Asian exporters to Europe could see additional surcharges reflected in forward contracts. For now, freight increases are significant but not yet explosive for containerized dried fruit, meaning that the main story for raisins remains one of modest factory‑gate firmness rather than a full‑blown freight shock, although this balance could shift quickly on any further escalation.

📆 Trading Outlook & 3‑Day View

• For buyers (industry, packers): Use current stability in FOB/FCA raisins to extend coverage modestly into late Q2, prioritizing Turkish and Indian origins where small price upticks suggest further upside risk if freight or energy markets tighten.
• For sellers (exporters, processors): Maintain disciplined offer levels, especially for higher grades and organic lots, but avoid over‑aggressive hikes while wheat and broader grains remain soft; instead, differentiate on logistics reliability and flexible shipment windows.
• For traders: The risk‑reward currently favors range‑trading nearby positions with an upward bias in origins exposed to higher freight and war‑risk surcharges, while monitoring Middle East developments and any spillover into insurance and container availability.

Over the next three days, EUR‑denominated FOB/FCA raisin prices on key Turkish, Indian and Chinese lines are expected to stay broadly stable with a mild firming tone (up to a few cents per kg) where freight quotations or replacement costs edge higher. Spot European FCA prices should remain in a narrow band, with any moves mainly reflecting currency and freight adjustments rather than fundamental shifts in supply or demand.