Raisin Market on Alert as Iran’s Export Ban Reshapes Global Flows

Iran’s blanket export ban on agricultural products since 3 March 2026 sharply tightens regional raisin and sultana availability, but the direct shock to EU supply is cushioned by Iran’s modest overall share and strong competition from Turkey and other origins. Prices are edging higher from recent lows, and logistics premia in the wider Middle East are adding upside risk.

The war in Iran has effectively frozen almost all trade flows to and from the country, including key dried vine fruits. While Iran is a heavyweight producer and a major regional supplier of raisins and sultanas, the EU imported only €225 million of fruit, vegetables and nuts from Iran last year, of which about €54 million were sultanas. For Europe this is significant but manageable thanks to dominant Turkish supply and diversified origins such as China, India, Chile and South Africa. Neighbouring markets in the Gulf, Central Asia and Russia, however, are far more exposed to the sudden loss of Iranian volumes and must now bid more aggressively for Turkish and alternative origins.

📈 Prices

Spot and near-term offers in EUR indicate a firming trend from late February into mid-March. Chinese sultanas type 9 RTU FCA Hamburg moved from about €2.16–2.20/kg in late February to roughly €2.23/kg by 16 March. Indian raisins FOB New Delhi (golden and brown AA) gained about €0.04–0.08/kg over three weeks, while Turkish sultanas from Malatya corrected down sharply in early March from over €3.00 to around €2.25–2.60/kg, then stabilized.

Origin / Type	Location & Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	1–3 Week Trend
CN sultanas type 9 RTU STD	Hamburg, FCA	≈2.23	Firming (+3–4%)
IN golden AA	New Delhi, FOB	≈2.33	Firming (+2–3%)
TR sultanas type 9 A	Malatya, FOB	≈2.28	Lower, now stable
TR sultanas type 10 A	Malatya, FOB	≈2.58	Lower, now stable
CL flame jumbo	NL, FCA	≈2.50	Flat

The combination of Iran’s export halt and heightened freight and insurance costs for Middle East lanes is beginning to feed into EU and global raisin quotations, primarily via risk premia and competition for Turkish and Central Asian supply. However, the immediate impact is moderated by recently good crops and still adequate global stocks, with Turkey alone targeting close to one-third of world raisin exports in 2024/25.

🌍 Supply & Demand

Iran is a top-tier dried grape producer and normally a key exporter of sultanas and other raisins, especially to nearby Gulf states, Central Asia, Russia and Eastern Europe. These markets collectively absorb millions of tonnes of Iranian fruit and vegetables annually, of which dried vine fruits form a high-value niche. With the March 2026 export ban on all agricultural and food products, these routes are effectively closed, and regional buyers must pivot to Turkey, Uzbekistan, South Africa and India for cover.

For the EU, Iran plays a smaller but non-negligible role. Total EU imports of fruit, vegetables and nuts from Iran were just over €225 million last year, of which roughly €54 million were sultanas, behind pistachios and ahead of dates. Germany is by far the largest EU buyer, followed by the Netherlands, Italy and Spain, with sultanas particularly important for Dutch re-export and Central/Northern European food industry demand. While substitution from Turkish and other origins is feasible, it may require quality and specification adjustments and is likely to come at a higher EUR price level.

📊 Fundamentals

Global raisin fundamentals entering 2026 were already moderately tight. Strong demand and prior weather-affected harvests had drawn down ending stocks over recent seasons, and Middle East & Africa now account for more than one-fifth of global raisin production, with Turkey, Iran and Uzbekistan as crucial exporters. Turkey alone aims for around 30% of world raisin exports, underlining its central role in balancing the market.

The war in Iran and the ensuing export ban shift this balance. Iran’s domestic consumption will now absorb a larger share of its dried grape output, especially as high food inflation and sanctions complicate import substitution for other staples. At the same time, logistics in the wider Persian Gulf and Red Sea corridors are disrupted, raising freight, insurance and transit times for alternative suppliers. This pushes importers to reconsider inventory strategies, extending coverage horizons and diversifying origins beyond the traditional Iran–Turkey axis.

🌦️ Weather & Regional Outlook

Key raisin-producing regions relevant for substitution, particularly Turkey’s Aegean and Eastern Anatolia, currently face generally seasonal March weather, with some rainfall episodes but no acute frost or drought signals for the coming week. This supports a neutral short-term outlook for the developing 2026 grape crop, though weather risk will rise moving into April–May flowering and early berry set. In the Middle East more broadly, the main weather-related challenges for dried vine fruit supply are expected later in the season rather than in the immediate 3–7 day window.

📆 Trading Outlook & Strategy

• Importers (EU, UK, MENA ex-Iran): Consider advancing Q2–Q3 coverage for standard sultanas by 1–2 months, prioritizing Turkish and Indian origins while price levels remain only modestly above February lows.
• Industry users: Where specs allow, build more flexible origin panels (Turkey, China, India, Chile) to mitigate Iran-related and regional freight risks, and lock in logistics capacity early for deliveries via Mediterranean and northern European ports.
• Traders and packers: Use current Turkish price stabilization as an opportunity to rebuild working stocks, but maintain a risk premium for potential further disruptions in Middle East shipping lanes.

📉 3‑Day Directional Price View (EUR)

• EU (CIF/landed, standard sultanas): Slightly firmer bias as buyers reassess Iran exposure; expect small upward adjustments of €0.02–0.05/kg rather than sharp spikes.
• Turkey FOB Malatya: Largely sideways after early-March correction; modest upside risk if additional regional demand emerges.
• India FOB New Delhi: Mild upward drift likely to continue on steady export interest and broader MENA supply uncertainty.