Raisin Prices Ease from Turkey While China Offers Competitive Alternatives

Turkish raisin prices have corrected sharply on key grades, while Chinese sultanas into Europe remain competitively priced, keeping the global raisin market balanced with a mild downward bias in EUR terms over the very near term. The current raisin market is dominated by price adjustments in Türkiye and steady, price‑competitive offers from China, especially for EU buyers. Recent quotes from Malatya show noticeable declines on conventional sultana grades compared with mid‑April, while organic levels remain unchanged. At the same time, Chinese sultanas delivered into North‑West Europe continue to trade at a discount to Turkish product, encouraging some substitution on value-focused demand. Weather in China’s Xinjiang region is already warm and dry, supporting early vineyard conditions, while Turkish growers are currently more affected by financial than by acute weather stress. Overall, near‑term price risk for standard sultanas looks slightly skewed to the downside, with organic and premium grades more stable.

Prices & Recent Moves

All prices below are indicative and converted to EUR using an approximate rate of 1 USD = 0.93 EUR where external references apply.

External wholesale offers for Turkish sultana raisins around 1.30–1.35 USD/lb FOB (~2.78–2.89 EUR/kg) for higher grades support the view that today’s Malatya conventional quotes sit at a discount to some export lists, reflecting aggressive spot selling and FX effects.

Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

Türkiye remains the largest sultana supplier globally, with official data confirming a structurally strong dried fruit export base and robust international demand. However, current market commentary highlights that overall seedless dried grape production in 2025/26 is lower than the previous season, keeping exporters sensitive to any new weather issues during flowering and berry set.

In China, the Turpan region of Xinjiang continues to account for the overwhelming majority of national raisin output, especially green raisins. A fresh USDA‑linked report from Beijing notes that Chinese raisin production in MY 2024/25 is adequate and that exporters are actively pitching raisins as a price‑competitive alternative to Turkish and Indian supply, particularly for EU buyers seeking Q2–Q3 2026 cover.

On the demand side, trade analysis for dried fruit into European foodservice and retail indicates steady but not booming consumption, with buyers generally covered for near‑term needs and focusing on cost optimization across dried fruit and nuts. This limits short‑term upside for standard sultanas, even as structural demand for compliant dried fruit products remains solid in 2026.

Weather & Crop Conditions (CN & TR)

China (Xinjiang – Turpan / Grape Valley)

Extended forecasts for Turpan in late April and early May 2026 show very warm, mostly dry conditions, with daytime highs frequently above 30°C and very low precipitation probabilities. This pattern is seasonally typical and broadly favorable for early vine growth and drying infrastructure preparation, with no immediate frost or excessive rain risk flagged.

Recent on‑the‑ground travel reports from southern Xinjiang describe mid‑April weather as already hot in Turpan, reinforcing the picture of an early, warm spring in key raisin‑growing districts. For now, Chinese supply risk for the forthcoming crop appears low from a short‑term weather perspective.

Türkiye (Malatya & Dried Fruit Belt)

Recent analysis of Malatya’s stone‑fruit sector notes cool, occasionally damp April conditions but no widespread severe frost events in the last few days, unlike the damaging frost episode of April 2025. While that prior frost still shapes sentiment in Turkey’s dried fruit complex, current short‑term forecasts do not indicate an imminent, large‑scale freeze threat.

However, agronomists warn that cool and humid spells during blossom and early fruit set can still elevate disease pressure and create localized quality risks, which exporters incorporate into their risk premiums, particularly for higher‑value dried fruits. For raisins, this translates more into quality‑spread volatility than into a clear direction for average price levels over the next few days.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Production balance: Global seedless dried grape supply in 2025/26 is slightly tighter year‑on‑year but not critical, with Turkey still dominant and China offering meaningful export volumes.
• Export competition: Trade commentary underlines that Chinese raisins are gaining share in cost‑sensitive segments, partly at the expense of Turkish origin, due to lower pricing and adequate availability.
• Macro & FX in Türkiye: High domestic inflation and lira volatility complicate pricing, encouraging some exporters to lock in EUR‑denominated business even at reduced USD benchmarks.
• Regulation & compliance: New food safety rules in Asian import markets (e.g. Vietnam) support demand for professionally certified dried fruit supply chains, favoring established exporters in both Turkey and China.

Short‑Term Outlook & Trading Guidance

Market Bias (Next 1–2 Weeks)

• Price tone: Slightly soft for standard conventional sultanas as Turkish spot offers have already corrected and Chinese competition caps rallies.
• Premiums: Organic and specialty grades likely to remain firm due to limited, more inelastic supply and quality requirements.
• Risk factors: Any unexpected cold snap in Turkish vine areas or logistical disruption in Xinjiang could quickly stabilize or reverse the current mild downtrend.

Actionable Pointers

• EU buyers: Consider layering in short‑term cover using Chinese or Turkish RTU sultanas at today’s softer EUR levels, particularly for Q2–Q3 production schedules.
• Importers in price‑sensitive markets: Explore Chinese origin as a hedge against Turkish FX and weather risk, while maintaining some Turkish premium grades for blend quality.
• Turkish shippers: Review EUR‑based offers and hedge FX where possible; recent price cuts suggest limited further downside unless demand weakens materially.
• End‑users with organic demand: Do not delay coverage; organic price stability amid wider conventional softness points to potential future tightness if demand surprises on the upside.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (EUR, Directional)

Overall, the raisin market is entering late April 2026 with healthy availability and limited immediate weather risk, suggesting that buyers can tactically secure nearby needs while retaining flexibility for later‑season developments.