Raisin Prices Ease Slightly as India Softens and Turkey Holds Firm

Raisin prices across key origins are broadly stable to slightly softer, with modest declines in Indian grades while Turkish, Chilean, Chinese and Afghan origins hold steady. The market remains underpinned by structurally tighter global seedless raisin supply, but near‑term demand is cautious and buyers are selectively restocking rather than chasing volume.

In early May, trading is dominated by fine-tuning coverage for Q2–Q3 shipments. India, after sharp increases through early 2026, is now showing small day‑to‑day price corrections as heat builds in Maharashtra and domestic demand normalises. Turkey’s sultanas remain the benchmark, with current wet and cooler weather in Malatya supporting quality prospects but not yet triggering supply stress. China and Chile are offering stable quotes, benefitting from relatively benign weather in Xinjiang and Chilean valleys, while Afghan feed‑grade raisins continue to price at a discount but are constrained by logistics and sanctions.

📈 Prices & Spreads (all values in EUR/kg)

Origin (Region)	Type / Grade	Location & Term	Latest Price	1W Change
India (IN)	Golden, grade AA	New Delhi FOB	≈ 2.09 EUR	−0.9%
India (IN)	Brown, grade AA	New Delhi FOB	≈ 1.67 EUR	−1.1%
India (IN)	Black, grade AA	New Delhi FOB	≈ 1.61 EUR	−1.1%
Turkey (TR)	Nr. 9 RTU, sultanas	Dordrecht FCA	≈ 2.63 EUR	Stable
Turkey (TR)	Sultanas type 10 A	Malatya FOB	≈ 2.18 EUR	Stable vs. late April
China (CN)	Sultanas std no.9 AA	Dordrecht FCA	≈ 1.99 EUR	Stable
Chile (CL)	Flame jumbo	Dordrecht FCA	≈ 2.27 EUR	Stable
Afghanistan (AF)	Feed, brown	Dordrecht FCA	≈ 1.76 EUR	Stable

Note: USD prices in trade indications converted to EUR at ≈1.08 USD/EUR where needed; figures rounded.

🌍 Supply & Demand Snapshot

• Tight but improving global balance: Recent industry data confirm a reduction in world raisin production in 2025/26 to around 1.16 million tonnes, down from 1.35 million tonnes in 2024/25, with particularly sharp cuts in Turkey and India, only partly offset by higher output in China and South Africa.
• Turkey (TR): Turkey remains the largest seedless raisin and sultana exporter, but frost and adverse weather in the last campaign cut 2025 output towards ~165,000 tonnes. Exporters are cautious sellers, aiming to defend price levels despite currently normal early‑May rains in Malatya and Manisa.
• India (IN): India’s raisin production is estimated sharply lower for 2025/26 (~160,000 tonnes vs 245,000 previously), after earlier heat and weather issues in Maharashtra; this keeps the underlying tone firm even as spot prices in New Delhi have eased slightly from late‑April highs.
• China (CN): Xinjiang’s Turpan basin, supplying over 80% of China’s raisins, rebounded after prior heat‑damaged pollination. Official projections now point to higher table grape output in 2025/26, supporting stable to slightly more competitive green raisin and sultana offers.
• Chile (CL): Chilean raisin production is steady with a small year‑on‑year increase to ~63,000 tonnes, keeping flame jumbo offers stable but well bid on quality.
• Afghanistan (AF): Afghanistan’s raisin output is estimated to rise to around 20,000 tonnes in 2025/26, but ongoing finance, logistics and sanctions constraints limit its ability to pressure mainstream food‑grade prices; much of the trade is in discounted feed‑grade lots.

📊 Fundamentals & Weather Drivers

Turkey (TR)

Short‑term weather in Malatya and Manisa is currently cool and wet, with forecasts for scattered rain and moderate daytime temperatures near 19–22°C over the next few days. This benefits soil moisture and early vine development, while the critical ripening and drying period is still months away. No immediate weather threat is visible for the 2026/27 crop.

Given last season’s frost damage and structurally reduced supply, exporters are unlikely to discount aggressively. Instead, they are using the current weather lull to manage forward sales, keeping high‑quality sultanas type 9–10 and RTU grades well supported.

India (IN)

In Maharashtra, India’s key raisin grape belt, meteorological services flag an increase in heatwave days in May, coupled with a tendency towards above‑normal rainfall later in the month. Hot days and warm nights will accelerate late drying but can raise quality risks (discoloration, uneven moisture) if pre‑monsoon showers arrive abruptly.

Near term, the crop is largely made and current weather mainly influences quality and drying throughput rather than volume. Domestic demand has cooled after festive‑season peaks, allowing slight easing in export offer prices even as the broader supply picture for 2025/26 remains tighter than last year.

China (CN) & Xinjiang

Turpan in Xinjiang is entering its hot, dry season with increasing sunshine and very low expected rainfall, conditions that are generally favourable for raisin drying. Combined with the rebound in projected grape production after past heat‑related pollination problems, Chinese exporters are in a position to maintain stable to slightly more competitive offers on standard sultana and green raisin grades.

Chile (CL)

In Chile, harvest and primary drying for flame jumbo raisins are largely completed, and current price stability reflects balanced supply rather than short‑term weather. With only modest global competition in jumbo flames, Chile retains pricing power, though any significant weakening in European demand could cap further upside.

Afghanistan (AF)

Afghanistan’s raisin sector is projected to expand modestly in 2025/26, but volumes remain small in global terms and export channels are fragmented. Feed‑grade brown raisins arriving into Europe are priced at a clear discount to food‑grade sultanas, offering a low‑cost blending option for some processors.

📆 Short‑Term Price Outlook (3‑Day Bias)

• India (IN): Mildly bearish to stable. Slight further softening is possible as buyers digest recent increases and monitor heatwave headlines, but structural supply tightness should limit downside.
• Turkey (TR): Stable. No weather shock and tight stocks argue for sideways price action in sultanas; exporters will resist discounts on high‑quality grades.
• China (CN): Stable to marginally softer. Competitive offers from Xinjiang may edge down for larger parcels, but moves are likely incremental.
• Chile (CL): Stable. Completed harvest and steady demand keep flame jumbo prices in a narrow range.
• Afghanistan (AF): Stable. Discounted feed‑grade levels are already low; further downside limited by logistics and risk premia.

💡 Trading Recommendations

• Food manufacturers (EU & MENA): Use the current softening in Indian FOB prices to top up Q2–Q3 coverage, but stagger purchases to hedge against potential further easing if heatwave‑related quality concerns stay contained.
• Importers focused on sultanas: Maintain a core position in Turkish grades for quality and reliability, but diversify 15–25% of volume into Chinese and Chilean origins to reduce exposure to Turkey’s structurally tighter balance.
• Value and feed users: Consider Afghan feed‑grade raisins as a cost‑efficient extender where specifications allow, while monitoring logistics and payment risk closely.
• Producers in IN/TR: Lock in forward sales selectively at current levels, as global fundamentals remain supportive and any meaningful correction would likely require a clear signal of larger 2026/27 crops.