Raisin Prices Edge Softer as Chinese Supply Competes with Tight Turkish Sultanas

Raisin prices are drifting slightly softer this week, with Chinese and some feed-grade origins trimming offers, while Turkish sultanas remain firm but stable. Warm, dry weather in both Xinjiang (CN) and Malatya (TR) is supporting a largely problem‑free ripening and drying phase, keeping near‑term supply risks low and limiting any bullish weather premium. European buyers are seeing modest week‑on‑week easing on Chinese sultanas FCA, while fresh Turkish No.9 offers into Central Europe post at a premium but without clear upward momentum. At origin, Turkey’s structurally tighter 2025/26 supply versus previous years continues to underpin prices, yet competition from more aggressively priced Chinese raisins is capping further gains. With stable weather in both key regions and no major new crop shocks reported in the last few days, the market is likely to trade sideways near current levels in the very short term.

Prices

All prices converted and rounded to EUR/kg.

Chinese sultanas into North‑West Europe are now trading materially below comparable Turkish product, reinforcing China’s role as a price‑capping origin for standard grades into the EU snack and bakery segment. This fits the broader pattern of China winning share from Turkey on price, despite ongoing ethical concerns that limit uptake for some buyers.

Supply & Demand Drivers

Global raisin and sultana availability remains tight compared with historical norms, after previous small crops in key origins such as Türkiye and India. Recent international industry estimates still point to lower 2025/26 production in Türkiye versus earlier seasons, while China’s raisin output is projected to increase, partially offsetting Turkish shortfalls on the world balance sheet.

European demand is described as steady rather than booming, but firm buying from bakery, cereal and snacking sectors continues to underpin imports. Tightness in other dried fruit categories, especially Turkish apricots, has also kept attention on raisins as a relatively more affordable inclusion, contributing to sustained baseline demand in the EU and UK.

Weather & Crop Conditions (CN, TR)

Türkiye (Malatya / Aegean sultana belt, region TR)
Malatya is currently experiencing sunny, seasonally warm conditions, with daytime highs around 31–33 °C and cool nights near 16–18 °C expected over the next three days. This pattern is broadly ideal for late ripening and sun‑drying of grapes, supporting raisin quality and reducing near‑term disease pressure.

China (Xinjiang, region CN)
Xinjiang’s grape‑growing areas are forecast to remain hot with hazy to partial sunshine and some cloud cover, highs mostly 32–36 °C and warm nights above 22–25 °C in the coming three days. Short‑lived showers are possible but no widespread adverse weather is indicated, implying low immediate risk for drying yards and suggesting Chinese supply will remain competitive into export channels.

Fundamentals & Market Tone

• Stocks: Industry projections still show limited carry‑in stocks from previous small crops in Türkiye and India, keeping the global balance relatively snug even as China expands output.
• Price spread: The current discount of Chinese to Turkish sultanas is encouraging some EU buyers to diversify towards China for standard quality, while reserving Turkish product for higher‑end blends and where origin is critical for marketing.
• Logistics & costs: No major new freight disruptions have emerged in the past few days; with energy and container costs relatively stable, logistics are not providing a strong directional push to prices at present.

Short‑Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

• Importers / packers (EU): Use the current mild softening in Chinese offers to cover short‑term needs, while staggering purchases of Turkish sultanas to avoid over‑paying if sideways trading persists.
• Industrial users: Consider partial substitution towards Chinese or Indian raisins for price‑sensitive applications, keeping Turkish volumes focused on premium products.
• Producers (TR, CN): With no weather premium in sight, disciplined selling is key. Aggressive discounting from current levels could quickly erode margins given still‑tight global stocks.

3‑Day Directional Price View (EUR basis)

• CN sultanas (FCA EU): Slightly softer to steady – competitive offers and good weather argue for small further easing, but downside limited by global tightness.
• TR sultanas (FOB/CIF): Mostly steady – firm floor from constrained supply, with sunny weather and stable demand pointing to range‑bound prices.
• Other origins (IN, CL, AF feed): Broadly steady with a mild softer bias in higher‑priced grades, tracking the competitive pressure from Chinese product.