Raisin Prices Firm in India, Turkey Holds Premium, Weather Stays Supportive

The raisin market is entering mid-March 2026 with a distinctly price-led tone: Indian offers continue to edge higher, Turkish material is still commanding the premium end of the market despite a sharp correction earlier in February, while Chilean, Chinese and Afghan-origin offers remain comparatively steady in European distribution hubs. The most immediate signal from the latest data is that India is currently the most active origin on price momentum. New Delhi FOB indications for black, brown and golden grade AA raisins all rose again on 13 March 2026, extending a multi-week climb from late February. Turkey, by contrast, has shifted from February volatility into a more stable pattern, with Malatya FOB/CIF sultanas unchanged in early March after the steep drop seen between 18 February and 4 March in several grades. In Europe, FCA Dordrecht and Hamburg prices for Afghan, Chilean, Chinese and Turkish product have been broadly unchanged week to week, suggesting that nearby importer demand is balanced rather than urgent. Weather is not yet a major threat for the next three days in the focus regions AF, CL, CN, IN and TR, but it does matter for forward sentiment: hot and dry conditions in Nashik support drying and logistics but can tighten moisture management; mild weather in Manisa is broadly benign for vineyard development; Santiago remains warm and harvest-friendly; Turpan is seasonally cool with no acute stress, though haze may disrupt handling; and Kabul turns wetter and cooler, which is neutral to slightly supportive for stored-product trade rather than fresh field activity. Against that backdrop, buyers are likely to keep favoring origin diversification, with India offering the clearest short-term upward price bias, Turkey retaining quality and specification premiums, and Chinese/Afghan/Chilean offers acting as relatively stable alternatives in the European market. Trade flow context also supports this reading: India’s 2025/26 grape crop is forecast higher, Chile’s table grape output is forecast lower, and Turkey remains structurally important in seedless grape and raisin trade, even as drought discussions keep the market attentive to the next crop cycle. Overall, this is a market where spot prices are being driven more by origin-specific availability, quality segmentation and exporter discipline than by any broad exchange-led commodity move.

📈 Prices

Latest raisin price snapshot

Origin	Location	Specification	Terms	Latest price (EUR/kg)	Weekly change	Sentiment
India	New Delhi	Golden, grade AA	FOB	EUR 2.33	+0.9%	Bullish
India	New Delhi	Brown, grade AA	FOB	EUR 1.88	+1.1%	Bullish
India	New Delhi	Black, grade AA	FOB	EUR 1.82	+1.1%	Bullish
Afghanistan	Dordrecht	Feed, brown	FCA	EUR 1.95	0.0%	Neutral
Chile	Dordrecht	Flame jumbo	FCA	EUR 2.50	0.0%	Neutral
China	Dordrecht	Sultanas std no. 9 grade AA	FCA	EUR 2.20	0.0%	Neutral
China	Hamburg	Sultanas type 9 RTU std	FCA	EUR 2.21	+0.5%	Firm
Turkey	Dordrecht	No. 9 RTU	FCA	EUR 2.90	0.0%	Firm
Turkey	Malatya	Sultanas type 9 grade RTU	CIF	EUR 2.40	0.0%	Neutral
Turkey	Malatya	Sultanas type 9 grade A	FOB	EUR 2.28	0.0%	Neutral
Turkey	Malatya	Sultanas type 8 grade A	FOB	EUR 2.25	0.0%	Neutral
Turkey	Malatya	Sultanas type 10 grade A	FOB	EUR 2.58	0.0%	Firm
Turkey	Malatya	Sultanas type 9 grade A organic	FOB	EUR 3.10	0.0%	Firm premium

Price interpretation

• India is leading the upside: all three tracked New Delhi FOB grades have risen every week since late February.
• Turkey remains the premium origin: even after the early-March correction, Turkish FOB/FCA values still sit above Indian and Chinese mainstream offers.
• European hub prices are calm: Dordrecht and Hamburg values show limited week-to-week movement, pointing to adequate nearby availability.
• Organic and higher-grade Turkish lines keep a premium: the spread versus standard grades remains wide, reflecting quality segmentation rather than broad market tightness.

🌍 Supply & Demand

Regional supply picture

• India: Maharashtra remains the center of grape production, and India’s fresh table grape production for MY 2025/26 is forecast at 3.15 MMT, up 3% year on year. That suggests raw material availability is not structurally tight, but the current raisin price rise implies firm domestic/offtake demand, selective quality availability, or stronger exporter pricing discipline.
• Turkey: Turkey remains a major seedless grape and raisin supplier. Manisa’s Sultaniye/seedless grape complex is strategically important for exports, and official local coordination on harvest/export timing underlines the export orientation of the sector.
• Chile: Chile’s table grape production for MY 2025/26 is estimated lower year on year, which can limit dried-fruit raw material flexibility when fresh-market economics dominate. Chilean raisin offers in Europe are steady rather than weak, consistent with disciplined supply.
• China: China remains the world’s largest fresh grape producer, with USDA PSD showing 15.0 MMT for 2025/26 fresh table grapes. That scale supports baseline dried-fruit availability, but current European prices imply stable, not aggressive, export pressure.
• Afghanistan: Raisins remain structurally important in Afghan horticulture, especially from seedless grape systems traditionally linked to raisin drying. Current FCA Europe prices are stable, suggesting limited short-term disruption in tradeable supply.

Demand and trade flow signals

• Importer demand appears steady but selective, with no evidence in the price data of panic restocking.
• European buyers seem comfortable covering nearby needs from multiple origins, reducing the chance of abrupt spot spikes outside India.
• Quality and format differentiation is shaping prices more than broad market scarcity.
• Fresh-market competition matters in Chile and India: when quality fresh grapes attract better returns, raisin-channel supply can tighten at the margin.

📊 Fundamentals

Key market drivers

• Indian crop backdrop: USDA FAS expects India’s 2025/26 grape production to rise to 3.15 MMT, while historical NHB/FAO material shows March-April is the core harvest window and that weather swings can materially affect grape outcomes.
• Turkish dryness watch: USDA commentary on Turkey’s broader 2025/26 crop year flagged limited rainfall and dry-weather concerns for agriculture, which keeps attention on water availability and next-crop development even though current Manisa weather is benign.
• Chilean fruit sector tightening: USDA FAS expects Chilean 2025/26 table grape production to decline, which is mildly supportive for raisin values where processors compete with fresh export channels.
• Chinese scale offsets volatility: very large grape production reduces the probability of sharp supply shocks in normal weather.
• No exchange-led benchmark: raisins are a negotiated specialty market, so spot offers, logistics, quality and buyer coverage matter more than futures.

Origin comparison

Origin	Market position	Current price tone	Main support	Main risk
India	Competitive mainstream supplier	Rising	Active spot demand / firm exporter pricing	Heat stress, fresh-market competition
Turkey	Premium sultana benchmark	Stable-firm	Quality reputation, export structure	Water/drought concerns for next cycle
China	Stable alternative supplier	Steady	Large grape base	Air quality/logistics frictions
Chile	Higher-value alternative origin	Steady	Harvest-season logistics, disciplined offers	Lower grape crop, fresh export pull
Afghanistan	Value-oriented supplier	Steady	Traditional raisin specialization	Trade/logistics vulnerability

🌦️ Weather outlook by focus region

• AF (Kabul): 14-17 March turns cooler with clouds and some rain/drizzle by Tuesday. This is not a direct threat to dried-fruit inventories if storage is controlled, but it can slow inland movement and handling.
• CL (Santiago/Central Chile): Warm, dry and sunny conditions around 26-28°C are favorable for harvest, drying and logistics. This is broadly bearish for near-term supply risk.
• CN (Turpan/Xinjiang): Cool to mild conditions, roughly 12-16°C, with haze and very unhealthy air quality. Weather itself is not threatening yields now, but haze can complicate transport and handling efficiency.
• IN (Nashik/Maharashtra): Very warm to hot weather around 34-36°C with abundant sunshine supports drying and arrivals, but sustained heat raises moisture-loss and quality-management sensitivity.
• TR (Manisa): Mild days around 17-18°C and cool nights near 2-6°C look generally favorable for vineyard conditions, with no immediate weather shock for supply expectations.

Weather impact assessment

• Most supportive region for smooth nearby supply: Chile.
• Most weather-sensitive region for short-term quality management: India due to heat.
• Most monitored forward-risk region: Turkey because drought discussions remain part of the wider agricultural narrative.
• Most logistics-sensitive region: Afghanistan.

📆 Trading outlook

• Buyers: Cover nearby Indian requirements early if you need golden or premium AA grades; the short-term trend is still upward.
• Importers in Europe: Use Chinese and Afghan offers as value-balancing alternatives where specification allows.
• Premium packers: Turkish standard and organic sultanas still justify premium positioning, but current stability reduces urgency for aggressive forward chasing.
• Sellers: Indian exporters have the strongest case for incremental asking-price increases if heat persists and domestic demand remains active.
• Risk management: Watch weather in Maharashtra and Manisa closely over the next 2-4 weeks; today’s calm conditions do not remove next-crop sensitivity.

📉 3-day regional price forecast

Region	Reference market	3-day outlook	Expected direction	Forecast bias
IN	New Delhi FOB	EUR 1.83-1.90/kg brown-black mainstream; EUR 2.31-2.36/kg golden AA	Up to slightly up	Hot weather and recent momentum support firmness
TR	Malatya FOB/CIF	EUR 2.25-2.32/kg std FOB; EUR 2.55-2.62/kg type 10 FOB	Stable	Mild weather and already-adjusted offers cap volatility
CN	Hamburg/Dordrecht FCA	EUR 2.20-2.23/kg	Stable	Ample supply base, limited immediate catalyst
CL	Dordrecht FCA	EUR 2.48-2.53/kg	Stable	Harvest-friendly weather keeps supply flowing
AF	Dordrecht FCA	EUR 1.93-1.98/kg	Stable	Soft logistics risk but no strong demand impulse