Raisin Prices Hold Firm as India Faces Heatwave and Turkey Watches the Skies

Raisin prices across key origins are broadly stable to slightly firm, with India showing a mild upward bias on premium grades amid hot, dry weather, while Turkish sultanas remain the reference for global trade with only limited reaction so far to earlier flooding concerns.

The global raisin market enters the second half of April 2026 with balanced trade flows and no clear directional breakout. India’s FOB and FCA offers are holding around recent levels as strong 2025/26 production meets cautious export buying and a developing heatwave in Maharashtra and neighbouring grape belts. Turkey continues to anchor sultana pricing, with exporters closely watching vineyard conditions after heavy rains earlier in the season but maintaining stable offers for nearby shipments. China and Chile provide competitive alternatives, with Chinese supply notably more comfortable after last year’s rebound, while Afghanistan’s role in feed and lower‑grade raisins adds a floor under the cheap end of the market. [cmb_offer ids=313,312,311]

📈 Prices & Recent Moves

All prices below are indicative wholesale/export levels converted to EUR (approx. 1 EUR ≈ 1.07 USD) and rounded.

Origin (Region)	Type / Grade	Location / Terms	Current Price (EUR/kg)	1-week Trend
India (IN)	Golden, AA	New Delhi, FOB	≈ €2.12	Stable vs. last week
India (IN)	Brown, AA	New Delhi, FOB	≈ €1.69	Stable
India (IN)	Black, AA	New Delhi, FOB	≈ €1.64	Stable
Turkey (TR)	Sultanas, type 9–10	Malatya, FOB/CIF	≈ €2.33–2.60	Firm vs. March
China (CN)	Sultanas, no.9 AA	NL hub, FCA	≈ €1.96	Slightly softer m/m
Chile (CL)	Flame jumbo	NL hub, FCA	≈ €2.24	Sideways
Afghanistan (AF)	Feed, brown	NL hub, FCA	≈ €1.73	Slightly softer m/m

Recent independent market commentary confirms that Indian FOB raisin offers have stopped rising and are now trading in a sideways band, while Turkish sultanas are described as “stable to firm” in mid‑April, with little discounting despite earlier weather noise. China’s export offers are reported somewhat more competitive after a strong production rebound, helping cap upside in global prices.

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

India (IN)

India entered the 2025/26 season with strong raisin production but also a marked correction from last year’s very tight market. Recent analysis points to surplus tendencies at current demand levels, with exporters noting weaker buying interest from some traditional markets in South Asia and the Gulf. This underpins the current price stability and limits near‑term upside, even as weather risks remain.

At the same time, India’s broader agri‑export basket is only growing modestly—around 2% year‑on‑year in value—indicating that exporters are selective and margins are tighter. For raisins, this environment encourages competitive pricing for bulk grades while preserving premiums for golden and higher‑spec lots.

Turkey (TR)

Turkey remains the key price setter for sultanas. Sector reports from March and early April emphasise that earlier flooding and saturated vineyards in Manisa created concern about vine health and potential 2026 output losses, but export prices and nearby offers have so far stayed broadly steady. This suggests that any significant production downgrade has not yet been fully priced into the market.

With Turkey still projected as the largest sultana producer in 2025/26, though at lower production than the previous year, traders are monitoring weather data closely but are reluctant to bid prices aggressively higher until clearer evidence of crop loss emerges.

China (CN) & Chile (CL)

China’s raisin sector, centred on Xinjiang, is in a more comfortable supply position this season, with industry statistics indicating a strong year‑on‑year recovery in production for 2025/26. Market reports highlight that this rebound has helped offset tightness in India and Turkey, and Chinese offers are actively recommended to EU buyers as a price‑competitive alternative for Q2–Q3 2026 coverage.

Chile’s dried‑grape segment benefits from generally good growing conditions, though wider Southern Hemisphere fruit supply is described as somewhat lower this season, with grapes reaching maturity earlier due to favourable weather. Chilean exporters are reportedly focusing more on the U.S. table‑grape market, limiting aggressive discounting in raisin channels but keeping prices broadly aligned with recent weeks.

Afghanistan (AF)

Afghanistan’s raisin production is estimated to have increased in 2025/26 compared with the previous season, giving it a slightly larger role in lower‑grade and feed‑quality segments. Export‑oriented traders in Europe are watching Afghan offers for feed and industrial use, which currently help cap the downside for low‑quality material but do not materially drive premium food‑grade pricing.

🌦 Weather Snapshot (Next 3–5 Days)

India (IN)

Weather reports for mid‑April 2026 indicate a persistent heatwave across Maharashtra and adjacent grape‑growing regions, with maximum temperatures above 38°C and minimal rainfall expected at least through April 20. For raisins, this supports good drying and storage conditions in the near term but raises concerns for vine stress and quality of late grapes if the heat persists into May.

Turkey (TR)

In western Turkey’s grape belts (e.g., Manisa), March flooding and excessive rainfall earlier in the season have transitioned into more normal spring conditions, with ongoing monitoring for disease pressure and flowering risks through late April. Over the next few days, no acute frost threat is highlighted, but any renewed heavy rainfall could quickly revive concerns about the 2026 sultana crop potential.

China (CN)

In Xinjiang’s Turpan region, the grape and raisin heartland, weather is seasonally mild in April, with no recent reports of disruptive events affecting the new crop. While detailed daily forecasts are not widely reported, industry commentary does not flag any acute weather‑related risks at this time, in contrast to last year’s volatility in other origins.

Chile (CL) & Afghanistan (AF)

Chile’s central valley has experienced generally favourable conditions, contributing to an early grape harvest, but no significant new weather shocks affecting dried‑grape supply have been reported in the last few days. Afghanistan’s main raisin areas have not featured in recent international weather‑risk reporting, suggesting normal seasonal conditions into late April.

📊 Fundamentals & Trade Flows

Latest global dried‑grape balance estimates show 2025/26 world production lower than the previous season but cushioned by higher beginning stocks, leaving total supply only moderately reduced. India and Turkey both show notable year‑on‑year production declines, while China, Chile and Afghanistan post increases, collectively preventing a severe global shortage.

European industry commentary notes that import‑dependent markets in South Asia, the Gulf and parts of Africa are seeing somewhat more attractive Indian offers as the earlier bullish phase unwinds. EU and Chinese buyers are advised to mix origin coverage, relying on competitive Chinese and steady Turkish supply while treating India as a selectively priced origin due to its more volatile weather and export policy backdrop.

📆 Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

• Bias: Sideways to slightly firm. With India stable, Turkey firm but not spiking, and China comfortable, the near‑term bias is for sideways pricing with a mild upward tilt in premium Turkish and Indian grades if any new weather concerns emerge.
• For buyers (food industry, packers): Use current stability to lock in 1–2 quarters of coverage, splitting volumes across TR/CN/IN to hedge origin‑specific weather risk. Prioritise Chinese supply where price competitiveness is key, and secure limited volumes of Turkish type 9–10 for quality‑sensitive applications.
• For sellers (growers, exporters): In India and Turkey, avoid aggressive discounting on premium grades; instead, target forward sales into Q3 2026 on any modest price rallies triggered by weather headlines. Afghan and other lower‑grade suppliers should focus on feed and industrial channels where price sensitivity is highest.
• Risk watch: Monitor Turkey’s Manisa region for any renewed flooding or disease pressure and India’s evolving heatwave and monsoon expectations, which could quickly tighten the 2026/27 balance if adverse.

📉 3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Direction in EUR)

• India (IN, FOB/FCA New Delhi): Golden, brown and black AA raisins expected to trade broadly flat in EUR terms over the next 3 days, with only minor intra‑day moves driven by FX and freight rather than fundamentals.
• Turkey (TR, FOB/CIF Malatya): Sultanas type 8–10 likely to remain stable to fractionally firmer in EUR, as exporters hold offers amid ongoing but unconfirmed crop‑risk concerns.
• China (CN, FCA EU hubs): Sultana offers seen steady, with a slight downward bias if competition intensifies for spot business; any move should be marginal given already competitive levels.
• Chile (CL, FCA EU hubs): Flame jumbo raisins expected to stay flat in the very short term, reflecting balanced demand and no fresh supply shock.
• Afghanistan (AF, FCA EU hubs): Feed/brown raisins likely to hover around current EUR levels, tracking broader low‑grade dried‑fruit complex with limited speculative interest.

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